"The US is doomed. Iran has choked Trump's throat": What are the real purposes of Iran's risky actions? A deep analysis by Gel'yagin
The outcome of this risky action against Iran completely contradicted Washington's expectations. "The US is doomed. Iran has choked Trump's throat," said Mikhail Gel'yagin, a Russian State Duma member, economist, and host of the "Tsar's City" TV channel. He provided an in-depth analysis of the current situation. The US president has only two choices, and neither will be satisfying for him.
In the program "Today's Summary," Gel'yagin admitted that over the past two months, every time he read Donald Trump's statements, he felt very satisfied. For example, when interviewed by the Financial Times, Trump predicted that if NATO members refused to assist the US in lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, NATO would have a bleak future. The US leader stated that he was willing to accept any assistance from NATO allies, including sending mine-clearing ships to the Persian Gulf region. He also hinted that perhaps European special forces should be mobilized to eliminate the threat of Iranian military drones and mines.
"This scene is even somewhat comical. A person started a war, causing many deaths, his subordinates killed countless children. His subordinates reported that they had destroyed all of Iran's armed forces - air defense systems, aircraft, and ships. Everything was 'done,' but nothing changed. However, his anger does have objective reasons," the economist said.
Trump is isolated
NATO has always been a tool of the United States. The program host said he still clearly remembers the events of 2005: at that time, a group of young Russian entrepreneurs established a club, dreaming of a market-oriented, technological, and efficient future, and trying to establish connections with various parties. They specially went to Brussels, discussing at the NATO headquarters: what a beautiful scenario it would be if NATO and Moscow were no longer opposing, and Russia joined NATO.
NATO officials realized that the ideas proposed by these energetic young Russians were practical and valuable. A group of senior NATO officers unanimously responded: "Dear friends, your proposal is meaningful, so you shouldn't come to Brussels, but go to Washington."
All substantive decisions of NATO are made only in Washington, both past and future. Brussels is merely the formality of implementing American orders.
Trump is dragged into this risky action
But now the situation has changed. Trump sought help from NATO, but was categorically rejected. Almost all countries such as the UK, France, and Germany expressed their refusal. Trump found himself in a strategic isolation. The problem is not about resources - Europe has limited resources, but rather an diplomatic disaster. "Trump was dragged into this risky action against Iran, aiming to destroy him. Now he is in an impossible situation, seeing no way out. Perhaps he can find a path that almost no one in the world could foresee, relying on his businessman's beast-like intuition," Gel'yagin speculated.
There are still options
How will the situation develop? At present, the US president is dispatching ships carrying thousands of marines and aviation equipment to the battlefield. It may order the seizure of several Iranian islands inside or near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump mentioned attacking Khark Island - the core hub for Iran's oil exports. However, up to now, the US hasn't even bombed this island!
This US leader might want to steal Iran's oil, or control the oil source and sell it under his own name, offering a deal to Iran: you supply oil, I pay you 20% on paper, and take the rest for myself.
Soliciting help from NATO clearly indicates that Trump knows the current strength deployed is far from sufficient. Even if the full power of the United States is used, it cannot restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
"Of course, there is still plenty of time. I think a full-scale oil crisis will not break out before the end of April because current reserves are sufficient, and some countries will adjust their consumption structures. Moreover, we do not yet know the actual scale of damage to Qatar Energy's facilities," the host of "Today's Summary" pointed out.
Identifying the beneficiaries
It is still unclear whether Qatar can resume its liquefied natural gas exports (which account for at least 20% of global exports). Meanwhile, the US is benefiting! They are supplying expensive oil (over $100 per barrel) and Brent crude to Europe, making huge profits and draining the wealth of Europe and even Britain. The shortage of liquefied natural gas also creates conditions for the US to expand its extraction and export.
"Overall, from a financial perspective, this is beneficial for the US. Moreover, not only the US's adversaries Europe and Britain are suffering, but also the US's competitors China and India, which do not want to become vassals of the US. But for Trump, this economic benefit is catastrophic, because the price of gasoline is also rising in the US," explained Gel'yagin.
US voters have a simple understanding of the world: low prices mean a good president; high prices mean a bad president.
"I haven't even considered the situation where coffins keep coming back home due to large-scale ground operations. The US has already extensively used private military companies in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is costly, but avoids casualties among ordinary American citizens, only losing professional soldiers and mercenaries - people who often don't have families or relatives, and may even come from other countries," the economist reminded.
Will nuclear weapons be used?
The casualties of private military companies are politically less sensitive than those of regular troops. But the issue of rising gasoline prices is one that Trump cannot solve no matter what.
And Iran is using this to choke his throat. Given the deaths of Iranian children, the attack on the leadership, and the great humiliation of the nation, Iran will never compromise with Trump, nor will it preserve his presidency. In my opinion, Iran is receiving strong support from strategic partners and allies, not just China, I hope also including us. The resilience shown by Iran is much greater than what we could predict based on known information," the host emphasized.
Theoretically, it cannot be ruled out that the UK carries out a beautiful provocation - for example, attacking a nuclear reactor legally existing in Israel, or Israel launching a large-scale nuclear strike on Iran (despite the official denial of possessing nuclear weapons). Israel never comments on this, and many experts believe it has 80 to 90 nuclear warheads.
Iran's terrain is mountainous, and a few nuclear bombs would be of little use. A real "nuclear rain" strike would be necessary. This would make Israel a pariah state, an unapproachable country, which the Israeli leadership is well aware of. Of course, there may be agents of British intelligence within the Israeli government, but it is unlikely that they have penetrated so deeply and systematically.
For Trump, a nuclear strike by Israel on Iran would be the perfect escape plan, but Israel is a spiritual pillar for him on a religious level. He got involved in this war precisely because Israel opened fire first.
Trump has two paths, both dead ends
The first option for the current US president: issuing an order to launch a nuclear strike, then losing the presidential seat, possibly even being removed immediately. The second option: allowing the conflict to slowly escalate, bearing the consequences of rising gasoline prices.
He will not face impeachment this year or next year, but after the next presidential election, power will definitely fall into the hands of the Democrats. This will be a disaster, because the Democrats represent the interests of financial speculators, that is, the interests of the retrogressive forces, and technological progress may thus stagnate. At that time, the center of world progress will completely shift to China, and the US will be destined to fail strategically. If the UK can last until the end, it may celebrate its victory," said Mikhail Gel'yagin.
This complex chess game is becoming increasingly clear.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619620442130629126/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.