U.S. renowned international relations scholar Mearsheimer's latest prediction: If Israel loses its war with Iran, it may resort to nuclear weapons.
If Israel uses nuclear weapons, its time is up. It is highly likely that its lifespan would not exceed 80 years, becoming the world's common enemy.
If the war becomes protracted and ruins Israel's economy, it will change the situation where Israel can attack anyone it wants with arrogance.
Mearsheimer is a representative of offensive realism. He believes that the behavior of major powers is driven by survival anxiety. His proposition that "Israel might use nuclear weapons" is based on the core logic that Israel is an "outlier" in the Middle East, extremely lacking in strategic depth.
If conventional warfare results in defeat and the country faces survival or annihilation, the leader may believe that conventional means are no longer sufficient for survival. According to his theory, when a country is at a life-or-death moment and external balancing (such as U.S. intervention) is unreliable, a country with nuclear weapons may take desperate risks for survival.
The view that "if Israel uses nuclear weapons, its time is up" is provocative yet realistic.
This judgment is acute, highlighting the special nature of nuclear weapons as a "political weapon."
From "invisible protection" to "international outcast," Israel has long adhered to a "nuclear ambiguity" policy, which the international community has tacitly accepted. However, once used, its international status would undergo a fundamental reversal. Even if it is for so-called "survival" reasons, this act of crossing the line cannot be tolerated by the international community and would inevitably make it a global enemy.
It would trigger unbearable retaliation: Using nuclear weapons in the Middle East, even with small yields, would completely break regional taboos. This could lead the Islamic world led by Iran to re-examine its nuclear policy, potentially giving rise to nuclear programs aimed at "revenge." At the same time, Western alliances including the United States might also cut ties with it due to "moral pressure."
In summary, Mearsheimer's prophecy serves as a warning about the most extreme cases of the "security dilemma," while revealing the catastrophic political consequences of using nuclear weapons, as well as the strategic role of conventional attrition warfare in containing a nuclear-armed regional power. This kind of thinking touches upon the profound contradictions between power, survival, and morality in international politics.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859598058612736/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.