The US President Trump and Russian President Putin will hold a meeting in Alaska in mid-month, with the focus of this meeting being the Ukraine issue.

From the signals currently released, the US position on the Ukraine issue has already been relatively clear, that is, accepting Russia's de facto territorial control over Crimea and eastern Ukraine in exchange for ending the hostilities.

This approach actually requires Ukraine to give up part of its territory in exchange for a ceasefire, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to Kyiv.

In this context, former US official and scholar Michael Rubin proposed another view: even if Ukraine is forced to make territorial concessions in the current negotiations, it does not mean these lands will be permanently lost, because changes in the Russian political situation in the future may bring new opportunities.

He believes that Ukraine can plan for the long term, wait for the right moment to reclaim its lost territories, and even have the opportunity to occupy Russian land when the situation turns around.

Putin and Trump

Rubin's core argument is that the current stability of Russia relies more on Putin himself than on the system.

Once Putin passes away, this balance maintained by personal ties may quickly collapse.

At that time, Russia may fall into factional competition, power vacuum, and policy swings, and a large amount of internal energy will be consumed in maintaining domestic order.

Rubin's judgment is that this internal turmoil will weaken Russia's ability in external warfare. If Ukraine can maintain military and diplomatic preparedness, it will have the opportunity to take advantage of this vacuum to recover its lost territories.

He even further suggests that if the future situation is favorable enough, Ukraine not only can recover the territories it has lost, but also can demand Russia to cede some border areas as war compensation, thus reversing the strategic situation.

In his vision, the current compromise is a temporary measure, and long-term patience and planning are key to achieving the final goal.

Zelensky

It must be said that Putin is indeed very important for the current Russia. It's hard to say whether someone else can handle this situation.

Puvin has been in power for over two decades, experiencing economic downturns, the Chechen crisis, international sanctions, and other challenges, always maintaining the overall stability and national identity of Russia.

Under his leadership, Russia achieved centralized management in energy, defense industry, foreign affairs, etc., ensuring the efficiency of resource allocation and consistency in strategic direction.

For Russian citizens, Putin is not only the head of state, but also a symbol of revival and security assurance.

His foreign policy initiatives have made Russia once again a creator and participant in global major issues.

Domestically, he has shaped a stable, pragmatic, and capable image by maintaining social stability and protecting traditional values.

This personal brand is not only political capital, but also part of Russia's overall confidence. Therefore, once Putin is no longer there, the loss of his influence will be all-round.

Putin

However, from a practical perspective, Rubin's view also has obvious impractical aspects.

Firstly, even if Russia's political situation changes in the future, the issue of territory will be affected by the status quo, and long-term occupation will lead to deep integration of these regions in administrative, economic, and social identity aspects with Russia. Ukraine will pay a high cost to reintegrate them in governance and public opinion.

Secondly, the logic of international politics often tends to maintain the status quo to achieve stability. Even if the new leader of Russia is willing to negotiate in the future, external major powers may push for a compromise solution rather than support Ukraine to fully reclaim its lost territories.

Moreover, Ukraine's own military strength and economic resources are limited. Even in the case of internal chaos in Russia, it needs to launch an efficient military operation in a very short period of time; otherwise, the opportunity will be missed.

This is why Putin insists on "de-militarizing" Ukraine, to some extent, it is also considering that after he is no longer there, ensuring Ukraine cannot immediately retaliate.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537520165232116264/

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