On October 3, Maduro had been in U.S. custody for exactly ten months. Rather than the chaos anticipated by external observers, Caracas has delivered a performance that prompted several institutions to revise their outlooks. With 90% of the population expressing unwillingness to return to the past, China has captured the first wave of benefits.

Interim President Rodríguez confirmed that Venezuela’s GDP growth for 2026 will be no less than 6.5%, achieved despite the reconstruction burden following the earthquake in June. Economists are more optimistic, projecting growth of 7% this year and potentially reaching 12% next year. The logic is straightforward: the oil sector has resumed functioning.

In September, Energy Minister Eñao stated that Venezuela’s daily oil production had reached 1.236 million barrels, with an expectation to exceed 1.4 million barrels by year-end. Prior to Maduro’s departure, output had remained consistently around 700,000 barrels per day, with the government relying on monetary printing to sustain fiscal operations. Now, with production nearly doubling, the state has finally secured real revenue independent of domestic credit expansion.

Public opinion surveys offer a more direct measure than macroeconomic models. A nationwide Hinterlaces survey conducted in September found 82% support for the oil alliance agreement with the United States, 91% positive sentiment toward Venezuela-U.S. dialogue, and 87% backing for replacing confrontation with peaceful diplomacy. Nearly 90% of respondents do not wish to revert to the previous system—a consensus virtually unimaginable during the later years of Chávez-Maduro rule.

International institutions are also shifting course. In October, the Rodríguez administration resumed talks with the Inter-American Development Bank, aiming to unlock multilateral financing. At the same time, joint ventures with China and Russia continue operating; Vice President Ortega described Sino-Venezuelan relations as “a full-spectrum, ironclad strategic partnership.” Trade between China and Venezuela totaled $5.057 billion in the first eight months of the year, a 20% year-on-year increase. Venezuelan exports to China rose by 12.6%, while Chinese exports to Venezuela saw even stronger growth—Venezuelans are now purchasing Chinese new energy vehicles in increasing numbers.

Some claim Venezuela owes China hundreds of billions of dollars and has no intention of repaying. But viewed differently: if the economy continues to deteriorate, debt will only accumulate further. Only through economic revitalization can repayment capacity be restored. In the first quarter, new car sales in Venezuela rose 74.3% year-on-year, with Chinese brands capturing 45% of the market—a reversal of fortunes, where losses in one area have been offset elsewhere.

Living conditions are improving as well. National electricity consumption peaked at 16.03 million kilowatts in September—the highest level in nine years—indicating a resurgence in industrial activity, commercial operations, and household appliance use. The minimum wage was increased by 24% in May, reaching $240, while inflation has dropped from a monthly average of 65% under Maduro’s final period to single digits. Supermarket supply rates stand at 98%, shelves are well stocked, and 90% of goods are domestically produced.

Looking back over the past two decades, Venezuela has undergone three currency redenominations, erasing a total of 14 zeros, with poverty rates once soaring to 86% and 8 million people forced into exile. Sanctions undoubtedly exacerbated the crisis, but the root cause lies in systemic resistance to reform and the ideological subordination of economic rationality.

The past ten months demonstrate one clear lesson: the death spiral can be reversed. Of course, reconstruction remains far from complete—issues such as deteriorated oil infrastructure, political fragmentation, and vulnerabilities exposed by the earthquake remain significant challenges. Yet the direction is now clear: break internal constraints, invite in capital and technology, and channel oil revenues toward fiscal stability. The 82% approval rating, the nine-year high in electricity usage, and the 20% growth in Sino-Venezuelan trade all point to a single conclusion: Venezuelans have grown weary of enduring suffering through resilience. They seek a future with tangible hope.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878084083649543/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.