The Precedent of "Forced Exclusion" in the U.S.: Venezuela's Oil Becomes a Battleground in U.S.-China Rivalry

This week, the practical test of Trump’s hemispheric dominance concept—“The Trump Doctrine”—has begun: America’s control over Venezuela’s oil reserves is now directly colliding with Chinese interests.

After U.S. intelligence agencies abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, China’s oil supply from Venezuela plummeted from 400,000 barrels per day to zero. This has severely impacted Chinese refineries that rely on heavy crude oil from Venezuela.

This week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright explicitly stated that future oil revenues generated by Venezuela under new agreements cannot be used to repay debts owed to China. China’s outstanding debt to Venezuela is estimated between $10 billion and $15 billion, long repaid through the “oil-for-loan” model. This move effectively severs China’s primary channel for debt recovery.

By late August 2026, the Trump administration announced a major agreement: the North American Blue Energy Partnership (NABEP), backed by the U.S., was granted 100-year development rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields, encompassing approximately 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. The U.S. government will hold a 35% stake in the company, have the right to purchase 20% of production at cost, and possess first-priority purchase rights over the remaining output.

China is not unprepared. Since the U.S. intensified sanctions starting in 2018, China has gradually reduced its investments in and dependence on Venezuela. By 2025, Venezuelan crude accounted for only 4% to 4.5% of China’s maritime oil imports. China is accelerating its energy transition, diversifying import sources and developing new energy to mitigate risks.

On the diplomatic front, China’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that China-Venezuela cooperation is protected under international law, does not target third parties, and should not be interfered with by third parties. This signals China’s intent to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests within the legal framework—but it currently faces difficulty reversing the de facto situation established by the U.S. in Venezuela.

A high-level U.S.-China summit is scheduled for September 24 at the White House, and the Venezuela issue is certain to appear on the agenda.

Political risk analyst Christian Reyes noted that the significance of the Venezuela incident may lie less in the direct seizure of assets than in setting a precedent for “coerced exclusion.” The U.S. is increasingly framing economic ties between Latin America and China as a national security issue, leveraging its political and military influence to draw “red lines,” forcing competitors like China to withdraw.

This event also underscores the practice of “The Trump Doctrine”—a reassertion by the U.S. of absolute dominance in the Western Hemisphere, willing to overthrow foreign governments and redistribute strategic resources to exclude external powers.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875412226731072/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.