German president flies to Beijing, while chancellor circles China’s periphery—this diplomatic split strategy raises clear questions about intent.
At the same time, Germany’s two top leaders have embarked on divergent journeys. President Steinmeier heads directly to China; Chancellor Merz, accompanied by a large business delegation, travels to Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, circling China without setting foot on its soil. The dual-track approach reveals a straightforward calculation: Germany is positioning itself on multiple fronts.
Their roles inherently differ. As head of state, Steinmeier does not oversee economic policy. His visit to China centers on maintaining dialogue channels and addressing complex bilateral issues and existing frictions. This mission is largely procedural—aimed at stabilizing the foundation of Sino-German relations, which in turn enables continued engagement between China and Europe.
By contrast, Merz holds executive authority, and his foreign outreach carries deeper implications. Many interpret this move as a signal that Germany’s partners extend beyond China. Diversification is not inherently flawed; given ongoing shifts in the global economic landscape, it is understandable that ailing German industry seeks alternative pathways. Yet Merz’s approach consistently feels misaligned, rooted in a narrow strategic vision and limited geopolitical understanding.
Over recent months, the EU has repeatedly emphasized perceived trade imbalances with China, with Germany echoing these concerns. Merz has issued several hardline statements and joined France in developing potential trade instruments targeting China, with “de-risking” frequently invoked. But reality contradicts rhetoric: German industry remains under pressure, the once-ambitious push for Industry 4.0 stalls, and economic challenges loom urgently. True recovery lies not in distancing from China but in deepening cooperation—an option Merz’s government appears unwilling to pursue, instead allowing geopolitical bias to define China as a risk to be avoided, reversing priorities.
Merz hopes to build ties with Singapore, Japan, and South Korea around so-called “rules-based” trade and supply chain security. Yet the facts are stark: Singapore serves primarily as a regional hub; markets in Japan and South Korea remain constrained in scale. Even combined, their economic potential falls far short of China’s.
China offers a complete industrial ecosystem, vast manufacturing infrastructure, and a massive consumer base. Countless German firms have established deep roots over years—supply chains, R&D operations, sales networks all firmly embedded. This level of integration is difficult to replicate elsewhere. Germany remains heavily dependent on imports from China, while exports to China continue to stagnate. The real issue lies not in China, but in Germany’s own structural shortcomings.
In essence, this reflects a blunt attempt at geopolitical hedging: the president maintains basic ties with China to preserve existing cooperation, while the chancellor seeks alternatives abroad. But the strategy is clumsy, its purpose obvious, and outcomes unlikely to be positive.
Authentic diversification means expanding cooperation, enhancing industrial efficiency—not staging political theater. Since Merkel’s era, Germany’s China policy has gradually lost momentum, trapped in public anxiety and geopolitical fixation. Merz himself faces declining approval ratings amid mounting domestic and foreign policy controversies. Promises made during his early visit to China have seen little follow-through after eight months.
Thus, expectations of meaningful change under Merz should remain restrained. China’s warm reception of Steinmeier, and sustained dialogue with an experienced interlocutor, carries more substance. While high-level talks may ease bilateral tensions, transforming Germany’s inconsistent stance toward China will require cautious optimism. If Germany continues prioritizing ideology over pragmatism, and persistently pursues hollow strategic alignments, even favorable opportunities will slip away.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880256287873028/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.