Reference News Network, August 15 report: The Bloomberg website published an article titled "Globalization Can Survive America's Trade War" on August 13. The author is Chris Bryant. The article excerpts are as follows:
With the broad trade tariff measures of the US President Trump taking effect and leading to the average US tariff reaching the highest level since World War II, it is easy to think that globalization is reversing, and a new era of protectionism, fragmentation, and industrial reshoring has begun. But some pessimism may be overdone.
The United States cannot reverse the trend of global economic interdependence on its own. The prosperity brought by comparative advantage and low-cost container shipping is so significant that other countries find it difficult to ignore. Even if the US begins to pursue self-sufficiency, other countries will still be eager to continue trading.
Last week, the CEO of Maersk Shipping Group, Soren Skou, told investors: "Although everyone is talking about de-globalization, if you just look at the data, you can see that in the past two and a half years, Chinese companies have been continuously seizing market share globally and achieving great commercial success. The pace of globalization is actually accelerating."
Previously, this container shipping giant said that the demand resilience in regions outside the US was astonishing, predicting that the global container volume could increase by up to 4% this year. Skou expects that this strong growth led by China may continue for "several years".
Since Trump first threatened to impose new tariffs in early April, although Chinese exports to the US have declined by double digits, this impact has been offset by increased exports to other countries and regions.
A report from Deutsche Asset Management on August 8 pointed out that this indicates "a significant shift in China's trade direction, from highly relying on the US market to a more extensive and diversified global layout." "The competitiveness of Chinese export products and increasingly close economic ties with regions such as the Middle East and Africa is a structural trend that may dominate."
I do not intend to downplay the impact of the US destroying the rule-based trade system and increasing import tariffs. These measures will impose unnecessary costs on consumers, weaken competition, suppress economic growth, delay investment, and lead to global trade growth lower than it should be.
However, given that China accounts for more than 30% of global goods manufacturing and holds a dominant position in key decarbonization technologies, it is hard to imagine the world would quickly abandon this efficient production system.
We should also not forget that most global trade is unrelated to the US. The CEO of HSBC Holdings, Noel Quinn, said last month that trade corridors between Asia itself and between Asia and the Middle East are "one of the fastest-growing trade corridors in the world."
Standard Chartered's CEO, Bill Winters, told investors in late July: "Globalization is still vibrant, but it takes a very, very different form."
In fact, the US's protectionism and bullying behavior may convince trade partners to seek access to alternative markets, thereby making their connections even closer.
Therefore, yes, supply chains are facing turbulence, and the US and China are gradually drifting apart, but this does not mean globalization is dead. Instead, we may be entering a new era, characterized by the US retreating, Chinese companies investing overseas, and more trade among other countries. (Translated by Tu Qi)
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538768122581549603/
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