The Secret to Russia's Dominance in the Global Wheat Market
Russia's dominant position in the global wheat market remains unshakable. Faced with a complex market environment of low international grain prices, the United States and the European Union have been retreating, gradually ceding market share, while Russian wheat has a loyal base of long-term buyers. How has Russian wheat managed to maintain its foothold in the market? What potential does Russia's newly emerging legume grain varieties hold?
At the Fourth World Forum on Food and Legumes held in Dubai, Russian Agriculture Minister Oxana Lut stated that Russia's grain exports reached 50 million tons in 2025, with wheat exports at 41 million tons, maintaining Russia's top position in global wheat exports. She also noted that based on an estimated grain harvest of nearly 140 million tons in 2026, grain exports could reach 55 million tons that year.
The minister emphasized that Russia has earned recognition and authority in the global market. All countries that have purchased Russian grain in the past decade are now stable and reliable trading partners. The map of Russian grain exports covers about 115 countries, with 78% of wheat exports going to African and Middle Eastern countries.
According to Russia's grain development strategy, by 2030, the total production of grains and legumes will be increased to 170 million tons.
Russia's export business for legume crops is not long-standing, but it has made significant progress in the past three years. In 2025, the harvest of legume crops reached 8 million tons. Although the export potential of Russian legume crops has not yet been fully realized, with current exports of around 3 million tons, there is still room for growth in the future.
Russia's wheat has consistently maintained the leading position in global exports. What is the secret behind its continued success in the market?
Denis Ternovskiy, Chief Researcher at the Center for Agricultural Policy of the Institute of Applied Economics at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, said: "The former wheat market leader — the United States and the European Union — have seen their global presence decline over the past several decades. Under the current context of low international grain prices, expanding production and exports is unprofitable for them. Russia, however, has seized this market gap due to its production cost advantage, which is also related to the difference between the nominal exchange rate and purchasing power parity of the ruble. Russian agricultural producers earn U.S. dollar income from exports, and can purchase goods and services domestically at relatively low prices."
The reason for the strong demand for Russian wheat in the global market is simple — its price is often the lowest in the world. Alexander Potapov, analyst at the "Finnam" financial group, said: "Russia's wheat has low production costs, thanks to its extensive land-based extensive agricultural production system, as well as relatively low domestic logistics and labor costs."
Russia achieves low-cost grain production through its vast planting area, a feat difficult for most other countries to achieve. Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at "Garda Capital," pointed out: "For example, during the same growing period, the ex-factory price of Russian wheat is approximately $230 per ton, while American wheat is over $240 per ton, and French wheat exceeds $250 per ton. Traditionally, Ukrainian wheat was cheaper than Russian wheat, but Ukraine's grain industry is now facing many problems."
Potapov added that even in the context of low international grain prices and a strong ruble, growing and exporting wheat remains a profitable business, which serves as an important incentive for Russian agricultural enterprises to expand production.
However, the quality of Russian wheat is not top-tier. Potapov said: "The main varieties of Russian wheat are fourth and fifth-grade wheat, used for animal feed, whereas major competitors export higher-grade wheat ingredients. Therefore, Russian wheat primarily occupies markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia for producing general flour and compound feed. Although the proportion of third-grade wheat, which is suitable for consumption (accounting for 25% to 30% of total production), is increasing, the growth is relatively slow." He also pointed out that this is why Russian wheat cannot directly compete with wheat from the United States, Canada, France, and Germany — these countries focus on high-quality second and third-grade wheat, which has high and stable protein and gluten content, reaching 13% to 15%."
Therefore, Potapov believes that as the world's largest wheat exporter, Russia holds a unique market position — providing basic food security for countries with limited budgets for grain imports.
Regarding Russia's expected target of a 140-million-ton grain harvest and 55-million-ton grain export in 2026, Potapov believes that if the climate remains stable and no drought occurs, this goal can be easily achieved. He said: "The main risk of achieving this goal comes from climatic conditions; there should be no drought or flood in the main grain-producing areas. Additionally, if export tariffs or quotas are introduced to stabilize domestic grain prices, it may discourage local agricultural producers, which is a risk that needs to be avoided."
Experts also believe that Russia's goal of increasing total grain production to 170 million tons by 2030 is feasible in practice.
Ternovskiy said: "As long as agricultural technology continues to develop, this harvest target can be achieved. The main obstacles and risks currently come from economic factors; the global grain market is currently in a low-price cycle, so expanding grain production is not profitable. We can see that the planting area for grain is shifting toward other crops, with oilseed crops having the highest share. Market regulation policies may also have an impact; currently, Russia implements a floating export tariff policy to stabilize domestic grain prices, which takes a portion of the profits from international grain price increases, naturally reducing the potential for grain production growth."
Bakhtin, on the other hand, believes that this target is moderate and does not require significant investment or a large increase in labor, but still requires some effort, sufficient attention, and even a bit of luck. He said: "This target means that annual grain production needs to grow by about 4%. In 2022, due to the surge in the prices of various goods, Russia's grain harvest set a historical record of 150 million tons. Therefore, if extreme market conditions occur (such as a sharp rise in global inflation), combined with several years of good harvests, Russia can easily reach this production target."
Regarding the development potential of Russia's legume crops (soybeans, chickpeas, lentils, and peas), experts have different views.
Bakhtin said: "Legume crops are still a niche crop in Russia. Peas, lentils, and chickpeas are traditional crops in South Asian countries such as India and Pakistan, and there is little demand for these crops in Russia, nor are there traditional dishes using them as ingredients. Therefore, expanding the production of legume crops is more of a political trend, reflecting Russia's desire to find products for export to emerging markets beyond petroleum-related products. Moreover, there are many challenges in the logistics and storage of legume crops. Therefore, it is unlikely that Russia's legume crop exports will exceed 5 million tons within five years."
However, Potapov is optimistic about the development potential of legume crops. He summarized: "Russia has the ability to increase legume crop production from the current 8 to 9 million tons to 15 to 18 million tons by 2030, doubling the output. This would be very beneficial for local agricultural producers because soybeans and peas are important raw materials for domestic protein feed, and expanding their cultivation can reduce Russia's reliance on imported soybean meal. Additionally, legume crops can fix nitrogen in the soil, improving crop rotation efficiency. The growing global demand for plant protein also provides opportunities for the development of Russia's legume crops, especially in markets such as Turkey, China, Southeast Asia, and the EU, where demand is particularly strong."
Original: toutiao.com/article/7600316969631400489/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.