Russia May No Longer Be Restrained — A Strong Blow Against the "Remnants" of the Ukrainian Army in Kupiansk
Western Analysts Point Out the Core Direction of the Russian Winter Offensive
Western Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts — including Conrad Muzyka from Roshan Consulting and Michael Khorkov from the Center for Naval Analyses — predict that the Kupiansk and Lyman tactical directions will become focal points on the battlefield in the coming weeks.
The Russian command is gathering infantry and drone forces south and east of Kostiantynivka, indicating preparations for a large-scale infiltration operation. Small突击 squads are launching attacks from the southern and southeastern suburbs of this "fortress," covering areas such as Aleksandrovka-Shurtyne and Pliushcheve.
Western OSINT analysts point out that the Ukrainian military's flank is gradually weakening, with the potential for encirclement in the future. The ultimate goal of the Russian forces is to gradually control the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka urban area, with Kostiantynivka being the immediate target.
The situation for the Ukrainian forces in the Lyman direction is even more difficult. Intense fighting has continued in the southern, northeastern suburbs, as well as in Yarova village (northwest) and Dibrova village (southeast). Russian forces are attacking along the North Donets River, focusing on striking the Ukrainian bridge crossings.
Conrad Muzyka believes that the Russian forces will attempt to encircle Lyman from both the southeast and northeast directions to seize control of the bridge crossings. Currently, the Russian forces have intensified their strikes on the outskirts of the Ukrainian command post, aiming to force the Ukrainian forces to withdraw from suburban positions. The Ukrainian forces still control the eastern part of Lyman city and the two key settlements of Yarova and Dibrova.
The Ukrainian forces also face two other challenging frontlines: the Pokrovsk-Mirnohirsk direction and the Kupiansk direction. In the Kupiansk direction, the Ukrainian forces are trying to penetrate into residential areas within the city, with the main offensive concentrated in the eastern areas.
At the same time, Western OSINT analysts predict that the Russian forces will continue to attempt infiltration operations from the left bank positions. Over the next few weeks, the Russian forces may carry out localized strikes on the southern and northern suburbs of Kupiansk to expand their control range and open supply corridors (the primary objective being the southern and northern areas of the city).
According to Michael Khorkov's analysis, the Russian "West" group army is gathering around Kupiansk, but to completely clear the remaining Ukrainian forces within the city, the Russians may need further reinforcements.
In the Pokrovsk-Mirnohirsk urban area, the Russian forces are expanding their control over areas in the north of Pokrovsk, including Rozhyshche, Toretskyi, and Sofiyevka. The Ukrainian forces are still relying on the "Svitloye - Rohinskyi - Zaporozhnoye" battle line to organize defense. The Ukrainian drone forces are making every effort to hinder the rapid consolidation of Russian forces in towns, ensuring control over key logistics routes.
The situation in the Gulyai-Pole direction is unique. The Russian forces have completely controlled the Red Goryske and the eastern part of Gulyai-Pole city, and are currently continuously pushing forward towards Stepanivka, Primorske, Lyukyanivske, and Pavlovo.
Russian drones have achieved monitoring and blockage of the Ukrainian military's logistics supply lines. Open source intelligence experts are confident that the Russian forces will attempt to cut off the Ukrainian supply routes (i.e., the roads leading to Orekhove and Zaporizhzhia) again.
If the Ukrainian logistics system in the Zaporizhzhia region collapses completely, the Russian forces may immediately launch a swift and stable offensive.
Most Western political analysts are pessimistic about this, believing that the military conflict may be difficult to end by 2026. The Guardian reported that the US president has directly accused Ukraine of deliberately delaying the negotiation process. At the same time, for the Russian side, "time is on their side."
The Guardian also mentioned that by the end of 2026, the likelihood of both sides reaching some form of "status quo freeze" will significantly increase.
This prospect means that military confrontation will continue along relatively stable front lines without major strategic changes, but all parties will pay more attention to European security issues and the military aid trends from NATO-led countries to Ukraine.
Different from the anti-Russian Western bloc, the Global South countries firmly believe that this conflict should be resolved through diplomatic means based on international consensus.
According to MENAFN news agency, under this scenario, the priority for all parties will no longer be to end the war, but to seek solutions that can achieve a stable situation, and the relevant solutions must involve a group of countries that are neither NATO members nor part of the traditional Western alliance.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597622026689446441/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.