【Foreign Media: Iran War Validates China's Energy Strategy】

The Financial Times website published an article on August 17, 2026, stating that for two decades, Chinese policymakers have been committed to reducing the country’s reliance on imported oil and natural gas—and the resulting vulnerability to maritime blockades in any future conflict with the United States.

In 2003, Chinese leaders described this vulnerability as the "Malacca Dilemma," warning that certain major powers could deliberately control the strait. It is reported that he once said: “Without exaggeration, whoever controls the Malacca Strait, controls China’s energy lifeline.”

Since then, China’s military strategy has focused on modernizing and expanding its naval forces to protect supply routes. In terms of energy, China has increased domestic production; encouraged higher energy efficiency; shifted toward alternative fuels; expanded the use of electric vehicles; diversified imports; and built up a massive strategic reserve.

China’s preparations for potential conflicts centered around Taiwan and the Malacca Strait have proven effective, making it significantly less vulnerable during the Middle East war. While Asian countries suffered severe price spikes and rationing, China largely avoided these impacts. Chinese policymakers are likely to conclude that their approach is correct and effective—encouraging them to further advance this strategy. Other Asian nations and regions worldwide may also adopt certain elements of this approach, thereby reshaping global energy markets. These elements include:

Domestic Production: Beijing views China’s resource endowment as “rich in coal, poor in oil, and scarce in gas.” The country currently imports 10% of its coal, 40% of its natural gas, and over 70% of its oil. To reduce import dependency, China encourages increased natural gas production in southwestern Sichuan and northern Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, while exploring oil in the Bohai Sea and minimizing the use of petroleum products. China is rapidly deploying hydropower, wind, and solar energy, while using coal as a “ballast” to ensure energy security.

Electrification: China is promoting electric vehicles and other new-energy vehicles at a pace unmatched by any other nation. These vehicles have already replaced approximately 1 million barrels per day of gasoline and diesel consumption. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), as more vehicle fleets become electrified, this substitution could quadruple by 2035, exceeding 4 million barrels per day. China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” anticipates that oil consumption will peak by the end of this decade (before 2030). Demand for gasoline and diesel may have already reached its peak.

Diversification: China expects to remain dependent on imports in the foreseeable future, so the government encourages diversification of supply routes and cultivates friendly relations with a broad range of exporting countries. Before the war (referring to the Middle East conflict), nearly 60% of China’s crude oil came from the Middle East—far lower than Japan’s (over 90%) and most other countries in the region. Fifty-four percent of China’s imported natural gas arrives via sea, but only 17% comes from the Middle East, with the rest mainly from Russia and Australia. Nearly half of China’s natural gas imports are delivered by pipeline from Russia and Central Asia, shielding it from maritime blockades.

China seeks to “expand our circle of friends” in the energy sector, having established relationships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Qatar, and Iran. As a result, tankers flying the Chinese flag or bound for China are mostly allowed to pass through blockade zones in the Gulf and Red Sea.

Reserves: China has accumulated one of the largest crude oil reserves in the world. The exact size remains a state secret. However, prior to the outbreak of war, China’s daily crude oil imports exceeded refining capacity by about 1 million barrels, with most of this surplus added to commercial and strategic reserves. Total inventory is estimated to exceed 1 billion barrels—enough to fully replace imports for over 100 days. Japan and South Korea also held large reserves before the war, but most other countries in the region had much smaller stocks, with some nearly zero.

China has already tapped into these reserves to maintain domestic fuel supplies. In the first half of 2026, crude oil imports dropped by more than 1.3 million barrels per day, yet fuel supply remained largely stable. Now, other Asian countries are planning significant increases in their own reserves to avoid future supply disruptions.

The Iran war has revealed the value of diversified supply chains and strategic reserves—experience China has applied over the past two decades, which other countries in the region are now painfully learning through costly lessons.

Disclaimer: The above report is excerpted from a Financial Times column.

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Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875547161407500/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.