【By Zhang Jingjuan, Observer】According to Hong Kong's English media, the South China Morning Post, on June 6th, Takahashi Asako is about to become Japan's first female prime minister, creating history. However, due to deepening divisions within the ruling coalition, her government may face a crisis even at the time of its establishment.

The 26-year-old ruling alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito Party could lose the parliamentary support of the Komeito Party, causing the LDP to lose its majority in the Diet. Takahashi would then be forced to seek new political allies.

However, analysts warned that Takahashi Asako, known for her hardline hawkish stance, has extreme views on immigration policy and historical recognition of war, making it almost impossible for her to find viable partners. In addition, Japan is currently facing new economic pressure from US President Trump's tariff policies.

"Takahashi faces a great deal of political uncertainty with very few good options. One possibility is that the LDP will lower its standards and continue to push forward as it did under Ishibashi's administration, while we wait for the post-Takahashi era," said Michael Cucek, professor of Asian studies at the Temple University Japan Campus, to This Week in Asia, a publication of the South China Morning Post.

Some opinions suggest that Takahashi's leadership career may be approaching its end, reminiscent of Japan's troubled past: falling back into the "prime minister carousel" era, similar to Ishibashi, who was forced to resign after serving only about a year.

The report stated that shortly after Takahashi Asako was elected as the leader of the LDP, the head of the Komeito Party, Saito Tetsuo, and senior party officials met with her, clearly expressing two core concerns: one was the potential impact of the Takahashi faction's visit to Yasukuni Shrine on Japanese diplomacy; the other was Takahashi's public stance towards foreigners in Japan.

Saito Tetsuo told reporters that he had warned Takahashi: unless she gives clear assurances on these two issues, the Komeito Party cannot continue to remain in the ruling coalition.

Hashimoto Tōru, former governor of Osaka Prefecture and mayor of Osaka, and one of the early founders of the Japan Restoration Party, supports constitutional reform and a tough stance toward China, but strongly opposes Takahashi's visit to Yasukuni Shrine. He strongly opposes the way the Japanese military conducted operations during the Pacific War: no strategy was executed before the final defeat, the army and civilians were mixed together, and when the defeat was certain, the military command committed suicide, leaving the people behind. He hopes that the person who becomes prime minister will clearly state that such events will not be repeated and that they will not repeat the mistakes of the Pacific War.

The report pointed out that for Takahashi, her political career is built on ideological beliefs, and it is unlikely that she will make assurances. But without new allies, her government may face a political deadlock even before taking office.

In 2022, Takahashi Asako visited Yasukuni Shrine. Kyodo News

Indeed, during the campaign for the LDP presidency, Takahashi Asako proposed the idea of cooperating with the conservative party Japan Restoration. However, Cucek believes this cooperation may carry political risks: on one hand, historical experience shows that small parties that ally with the LDP often perform poorly in the next election, and the leadership of the Japan Restoration Party would not ignore this; on the other hand, the two parties directly compete in district-level elections. After losing the Komeito Party's ability to mobilize millions of votes, the Japan Restoration Party could easily attract enough voters in single districts, leading to heavy losses for the LDP in those districts.

"The Japan Restoration Party would be willing to put forward candidates to 'disrupt' the LDP and completely destroy the conservative forces in a nihilistic frenzy," Cucek said.

Other potential partnership options are even more remote. Professor Tomimura Tomoki of Waseda University's Department of Political Science and International Relations believes that it is extremely difficult for Takahashi to find stable partners.

Tomimura Tomoki said, "If the relationship with the Komeito Party cannot be repaired, then Takahashi Asako has no choice but to continue Ishibashi's policies, cooperate with other parties on individual legislative projects, and work to rebuild the LDP to win more seats in the next election."

Analysts remind that holding early elections also carries significant risks for Takahashi. Although Cucek mentioned the possibility of an election after the February budget was passed, this entirely depends on whether Takahashi can secure sufficient support in the short term and rebuild the LDP's credibility.

Regarding Takahashi Asako's election as the leader of the LDP, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to foreign media questions on the 4th, stating that we have noted the election results, which are internal affairs of Japan. We hope that Japan will abide by the principles and consensus of the four political documents between China and Japan, keep the political commitments made on major issues such as history and Taiwan, and implement a positive and rational policy toward China, effectively implementing the positioning of comprehensively advancing strategic mutual benefit relations.

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