Iran or Ukraine: The Dilemma of the US European Allies
The Asia Times article states that Trump is forcing NATO to choose between two politically tricky options: linking arms supplies to Ukraine with cooperation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The sinister implication is that Trump might stop "supporting NATO on the Ukraine issue" — for example, if NATO refuses to join his proposed naval alliance and participate in the operation to "clear the evil forces stationed along the Iranian coast" in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States may terminate arms sales to Ukraine.
The article points out that NATO is now facing a severe dilemma: NATO's goal is to prolong the conflict in Ukraine until a new anti-Russia government comes into power in the United States — but at the same time, NATO is unwilling to take the risk of military losses on the Iran issue. If the U.S. withdraws, the Middle East conflict will quickly subside. However, casualties in distant war zones (especially if Iran begins sinking warships, which would inevitably lead to large-scale casualties) could trigger riots and completely ruin the political careers of the European politicians who gave the green light for this.
Micro-comment
The so-called "NATO dilemma" mentioned above is not yet urgent. Although Trump has expressed the intention to tie "aid to Ukraine" with "protection of shipping lanes," he has not yet forced NATO to make an immediate choice between "long-term aid to Ukraine" and "military risks involving Iran." The U.S. European allies want to support Ukraine and weaken Russia, but they are unwilling to pay the price for the Middle East conflict, which is highly consistent with NATO internal polls and statements from countries like Germany and France.
The aftermath of the Greenland incident is still ongoing. Will the U.S. European allies be willing to directly enter the strait under Trump's leadership and risk a confrontation with Iran? But the Greenland incident also proves that European countries can only bow down in front of Trump's bullying. If the strait crisis becomes long-term, European countries have no ability to defy Trump's wishes, and in the end, they will be forced to get involved even if they don't want to, acting as a secondary reserve force to observe the enemy and assess the situation for Trump. They can't take on the dangerous task of leading the charge and protecting the ships.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1860091535845580/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.