South Korean media: Global electric vehicle sales continue to grow, China is running, while the US is standing still!

On July 16, South Korean media "Chosun Ilbo" published an article stating that Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in its recent annual report "Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025" said that the trend of differentiated adoption rates of electric vehicles across countries is intensifying, with China and emerging countries showing prominent growth trends, while the US has slowed down due to policy changes.

BNEF comprehensively analyzed the impact of the energy transition on the entire energy system in this report, including not only trends in electric vehicle sales, but also battery demand, charging infrastructure, power consumption, and reduced oil demand. The report predicts that the global electric vehicle market landscape may change in the next 5 to 10 years depending on regional policies and the pace of technological transformation.

BNEF predicts that global passenger electric vehicle sales will reach 21.9 million units in 2025, an increase of about 25% year-on-year. By region, China is expected to account for 67% of total sales, followed by Europe (17%) and the United States (7%).

China is steadily increasing its market share through the popularization of price-competitive models, subsidies, and the expansion of charging infrastructure. Notably, China is analyzed as the only major market where the average purchase price of electric vehicles is lower than that of internal combustion engine vehicles.

At the same time, due to factors such as the relaxation of fuel economy standards, reduction of tax credits, and potential weakening of California's regulatory emission power, the cumulative sales of electric vehicles in the US are expected to be 14 million fewer by 2030 than previously predicted.

Europe experienced a short adjustment period in 2024, but with the implementation of stricter carbon dioxide emission regulations, the market is expected to rebound from 2025 onwards. BNEF predicts that by 2026, electric vehicles will account for more than 40% of new car sales in the UK. In contrast, Germany's sales have declined for two consecutive years due to the early end of subsidies.

Electric vehicle adoption rates in emerging countries are rapidly increasing. The adoption rate of electric vehicles in Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil has already exceeded that of the US. BNEF comments that this result "breaks the traditional concept that electric vehicle adoption should first begin in developed countries."

With the popularity of electric vehicles, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is increasing, but there is a phenomenon of "oversupply," with production capacity exceeding demand.

According to BNEF's prediction, global battery production capacity will reach 3.8 TWh per year in 2025, more than twice the expected demand (1.5 TWh).

To address the oversupply issue, battery manufacturers are actively expanding the fixed energy storage system (ESS) market as a new source of demand. ESS is a large battery system used to store electricity and supply it when needed. It is expected that the demand for ESS will grow at an average annual rate of 12% until 2035.

However, due to high battery prices in the US and Europe, the regional price gap with countries like China is expected to persist for some time.

Although solid-state batteries have not yet achieved mass production, BNEF predicts that by 2035, solid-state batteries will account for 10% of the total demand for batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. So far, the solid-state battery manufacturing facilities built account for 9.5% of the total, with most concentrated in China.

The expansion of charging infrastructure is also underway. However, in some regions in Europe and the US, the cost of public fast charging is actually higher than gasoline. Therefore, BNEF recommends that countries should develop balanced construction strategies for home, workplace, and public charging stations in the future.

At the same time, BNEF stated that the US may become the first major market with an electric vehicle adoption rate lower than the global average, pointing out that short-term policy changes could affect long-term transformation trends.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837806812895243/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.