▲ On the 11th, President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump passed by a portrait of former President George W. Bush while descending to the Grand Foyer of the White House during the Congressional Ball in Washington, D.C. / AP, Yonhap

A 19% gap – such a margin is difficult to be seen as mere failure in any country's election, but rather as near total defeat or destruction. Moreover, this did not happen in a Democratic stronghold, but in Miami, Florida, where President Donald Trump called the private villa Lake House his "second White House," yet such an event occurred right in front of it.

In the mayoral election held on the 9th, Democratic candidate Erin Higgins defeated Republican candidate Emilio Gonzalez with 59.5% of the votes, compared to 40.5%. This was the first time since 1997 that Miami had a Democratic mayor, nearly 30 years ago, and she became Miami's first female mayor.

This election result has been viewed as a landmark event, going beyond mere local power transition, indicating that Trump's political control is rapidly weakening within less than a year in office.

Has Trump, once the "kingmaker," now become the "kingbreaker"?

The Washington political circle conducted a painful analysis of this result. Trump's public announcement of supporting candidates through his social media did not serve as a guarantee for victory, but rather as poison that drove away neutral voters.

In fact, some in politics have commented: "Trump is no longer a 'kingmaker' who leads to election victories, but a 'kingbreaker' who eliminates candidates." In the lead-up to the Miami mayoral election, Trump personally campaigned for the Republican candidate, but the fact that he was completely ignored by the Florida voters within his own base confirmed this analysis.

U.S. media has focused on the cracks in Trump's leadership. PBS emphasized that "the Democrats have revived in Trump's backyard." The Guardian pointed out that "Miami clicked left and rejected Trump." Political professional media such as The Hill and Politico said that "this is a red warning light for the 2026 midterm elections," questioning the effectiveness of the Trump brand.

▲ On the 9th, after Democrat candidate Erin Higgins won the mayoral election in Miami, Florida, a Republican stronghold, she celebrated in front of her supporters. / AFP

A national "Democratic wave" ... Republicans face dark clouds ahead of the 2026 midterms

The problem is that it's hard to view the Republican loss in the Miami mayoral election as a single incident. On the same day, in the Georgia congressional special election (121st district), Democratic candidate Eric Gessler also defeated the Republican candidate, winning unexpectedly. This district was a Republican stronghold just a year ago, where Trump easily defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by 12% in the presidential election.

After the recent major Democratic wins in the New York City mayoral election, Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, the Republicans have also suffered consecutive defeats in Florida and Georgia, the so-called "backyard" of Trump, indicating that the Democratic momentum might become a nationwide trend. Particularly in the Miami mayoral election, conservative Cuban-American voters did not choose the Republican male Cuban-American candidate supported by Trump, but instead chose the Democratic white female candidate, indicating that Trump's immigration and economic policies have seriously lost touch with the people.

With the bases considered as "concrete foundations" being lost within less than a year of taking office, the Republican Party has become increasingly concerned, believing that this result is a strong warning for their upcoming 2026 midterm election disaster.

Weakening party control ... "power leakage" spreading to the legislature

A bigger issue is that even within the Republican Party, they feel that Trump's "oratory skills" are no longer as effective as before. This election loss may become an excuse for accelerating the weakening of Trump's control over the party, which has already shown signs of decline.

In fact, during the recent U.S. government shutdown crisis, Trump strongly urged the Senate Republicans to "end the filibuster" (obstructing legitimate proceedings), but the Republican leadership opposed it and clearly refused. In the past, Republicans would follow Trump's "instructions" consistently, but within less than a year of his presidency, they have begun to distance themselves from Trump's unreasonable demands.

The collapse of Trump's leadership has spread from Washington to state legislatures. On the 11th, a "defiance" incident occurred in the Indiana State Senate, which rejected Trump's push for an unfair gerrymandering bill.

To win the 2026 midterm elections, Trump has stubbornly demanded redrawing district maps to capture the seats of two Democratic sitting members in Indiana. To implement this plan, he twice urgently sent Vice President JD Vance to the area and mobilized House Speaker Mike Johnson to conduct a phone campaign, showing full effort. The White House even issued explicit political retaliation warnings to those who did not comply with the demands.

But the result was bleak. 21 Republican state senators voted against it along with the Democrats. That day, Republican state senator Greg Good publicly stated that "the pressure from the White House had gone too far," expressing dissatisfaction. In Indiana, traditionally a Republican stronghold, even the president's strong orders were rejected, marking a decisive moment that showed Trump's "intimidation politics" no longer worked within the party.

Washington political sources predicted: "After suffering a heavy defeat in the stronghold of Miami, the Republican legislators should have already realized that 'following Trump's instructions no longer helps re-election.' In the future, opposition actions within Congress to promote Trump's policies may become more intense."

▲ On the 9th, Trump performed his characteristic arm dance at a resort in Pennsylvania while giving a speech to supporters. / Reuters

Trump brags about the "narrow win" in Tennessee, ignores the "heavy loss" in his stronghold

Trump is selectively responding to the election results, which have hurt his ego. Just a week earlier, on the 2nd, the Republican candidate narrowly won the special election in Tennessee with a 9% margin, and Trump boasted about this "great Republican victory" on social media. However, considering that the Republicans previously won by 22% in the district, this was merely a victory with half the support, a battered one.

On the contrary, for the 19-point deficit in Miami, which he personally supported, Trump remained silent after the election. Local media saw this silence as an admission that "the place that should have won (Tennessee) barely won, while the place that should have been defended (Miami) suffered a heavy defeat," and that "Trump's silence resembled acknowledging himself as a lame duck (leaking power)."

Trump breaks silence: "It was bound to lose if you became president"

Until the 10th, the day after the election, when asked about the losses in Miami and Georgia, Trump finally spoke up, saying "he wasn't worried," and "for unknown reasons, it seems that as long as you become president, even if you do your job well, you will lose in the midterm elections."

This was understood as Trump trying to blame the so-called "midterm election curse" known as the "graveyard of ruling parties," rather than looking for reasons related to his own policies or declining support. The confidence he once expressed with "a huge victory" before the vote had disappeared, and Trump seemed to be making excuses for the coming defeat in advance, which further increased the sense of crisis within the Republican Party.

Sources: Chosun Ilbo

Original: toutiao.com/article/7582829155251798571/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author."