"China's trade surplus with Europe exceeds that with the US for the first time", Is German industry in crisis?

While European politicians keep emphasizing "de-risking" from China, the latest trade data reveals a completely different reality: the European economy's dependence on China has become unprecedentedly deep.

According to an article by French newspaper Les Echos on November 17, in the past 12 months, China's trade surplus with the EU reached 310 billion USD, exceeding its trade surplus with the US of 302 billion USD. This situation has never occurred before except for three months during the 2008 subprime crisis when the US economy stagnated.

European industry professionals believe this phenomenon stems from China's industrial upgrading coinciding with areas where Europe historically had core competitive advantages, such as the automotive industry, future aviation industry, and machine tools, among others. Some have sounded the alarm about the future of European industries, with Germany being hit first.

Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, an economist at the French research firm Rexecode, found through analysis of Chinese customs data that China's trade surplus with Europe exceeded its trade surplus with the US between October 2024 and October 2025. Since 2019, China's trade surplus with Europe has almost doubled.

He believes that as the Trump administration's tariff policies have basically closed the door to China's exports to the US market, this phenomenon may further intensify, which makes Europe directly face the impact of Chinese industries.

Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie pointed out: "The reason for this phenomenon is that China's industrial upgrading coincides with areas where Europe historically had core competitive advantages, namely transportation, the current automotive industry, the future aviation industry, and equipment products such as machine tools, as well as basic industries such as chemicals."

He emphasized: "Therefore, Europe not only faces the impact of China in its domestic market, but also in third-party markets. China's industrial strength is formidable, with a global footprint, and European companies' exports lack alternative markets to retreat to."

The report said that for Europe, this is the second "China shock" after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the early 21st century.

European industry, the core of which is German industry, has made Germany the target of Chinese competition. Deutsche Bank economists believe: "China is increasingly forming a direct competitive relationship with Germany in the global market and within Europe."

Between 2019 and 2024, Germany's exports to China fell by 9%, while China's exports to Germany increased by 40% during the same period. Only six years ago, Germany still maintained a trade surplus of about 30 billion USD with China, but in the past 12 months, Germany's trade deficit with China has already reached 25 billion USD.

Official German statistical data shows that from January to August this year, China replaced the United States as Germany's largest trading partner. The main reason for this change is the resumption of U.S. tariff policies leading to a decline in Germany's exports to the U.S., while Germany's imports from China have significantly increased.

Analysts point out that this trend reflects the limitations of Europe's "de-risking" strategy, and China's trade influence on Germany has returned to its peak.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849187156002890/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."