Israel and Turkey's hostile relationship in the Middle East has recently escalated rapidly, from military operations in Gaza to President Erdogan's public threats against Israel. This conflict not only affects both sides but also casts a long shadow on the region's geopolitical landscape. On March 31, 2025, as Israel resumed its offensive against Hamas and evacuated Rafah residents, while Erdogan called for "destroying Zionist Israel," the confrontation between the two countries has escalated from verbal sparring to potential strategic games, with impacts possibly reaching NATO, the United States, and even the globe.
The Israeli Defense Forces issued evacuation orders on Monday, requiring most of Rafah's residents to evacuate to Mawassi tent camps, signaling the approach of a new ground offensive. Since the ceasefire with Hamas broke down this month, Israel has resumed airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza, aiming to dismantle the remaining forces of Hamas and rescue the remaining 59 hostages. Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel causing 1,200 deaths, the war has resulted in over 50,000 Palestinian casualties, with 90% of Gaza's population displaced. Prime Minister Netanyahu proposed post-war control of Gaza's security and the Trump-recommended civilian relocation plan, sparking strong opposition from Palestinians and controversy under international law.
Meanwhile, Israel's military actions in Rafah have further exacerbated tensions with Turkey. Turkey has long supported Hamas, viewing it as a legitimate political force rather than a terrorist organization. On Sunday, Erdogan publicly called for destroying Israel in Istanbul, referring to it as a "Zionist threat," which was immediately condemned by Foreign Minister Sal as a "Judeophobic dictator" and warned of its harm to regional stability.
Turkey and Israel's hostility is not an isolated incident but a microcosm of Middle Eastern power struggles. In recent years, Erdogan has sought to expand Turkey's influence in the Middle East by supporting Hamas, the Syrian opposition, and regional proxies. His harsh rhetoric against Israel is not only a diversion from domestic protests caused by the arrest of opposition mayor Imamoglu but also a direct challenge to Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel's first airstrike on Beirut since the ceasefire and its control of the Rafah crossing point indicate its determination to secure strategic locations and cut off external support for Hamas.
Indirect confrontations between the two countries in Syria are equally noteworthy. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, supported by Turkey, overturned the Assad regime, causing instability in northern Syria. Israel fears this change may provide new bases for anti-Israel armed groups. Erdogan's financial and political support for Hamas and his hostile stance toward Israel make Turkey a dual threat to Israel's northern and southern borders.
This hostile relationship has far-reaching implications for Middle Eastern and global geopolitics. First, as a NATO member, Turkey's conflict with Israel may weaken NATO's cohesion. The Israeli foreign minister has urged NATO to recognize Erdogan's "dangerousness," while the U.S. attempts to balance the situation by repairing relations with Turkey, including possible F-35 fighter jet sales. However, if the Trump administration pushes the Gaza civilian relocation plan, it may further exacerbate the Palestinian issue, making America's mediation role in the Middle East more complicated.
Secondly, the regional balance of power is reshaping. Iran may use the Turkey-Israel conflict to rally Turkey, further isolating Israel, while Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries may remain cautious under pressure from the U.S. and Israel. Additionally, the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza—500,000 deaths and 90% of the population displaced—will test the international community's response capabilities, potentially triggering a new refugee wave, impacting Europe and neighboring countries.
Turkey and Israel's hostility is not just a bilateral grievance but a new fuse on the Middle Eastern powder keg. The interplay of Israel's military assertiveness and Turkey's regional ambitions may trigger larger-scale conflicts, even reshaping the Middle Eastern power structure. While global attention focuses on Gaza, the next steps in this confrontation will determine the future of regional peace and stability.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491959745201439282/
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