【By Mao Keji, Observer Columnist】
In the history of U.S.-India relations, few people have been as pivotal as Ashley J. Tellis — this name has almost become synonymous with "U.S.-India cooperation."
For many years, as an Indian-American strategic scholar, he was not only a top advisor in formulating U.S. geopolitical strategies, but also a behind-the-scenes force in pushing U.S.-India relations from cold to warm.
It was under his direct involvement that the Bush administration took a bold step by signing the "U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement," ending India's status as a "nuclear pariah" and opening the door to a U.S.-India strategic partnership.
Yet, this key figure who made great contributions to the development of U.S.-India relations has recently been arrested by the FBI in a high-profile manner, and the reason is related to China. The news immediately shocked the U.S. policy circle and the Indian diplomatic community.
Tellis can be seen as the soul figure of U.S.-India cooperation
Tellis was born in 1961 in Mumbai, India. He earned a bachelor's and master's degree in economics from St. Xavier's College, Mumbai. Later, he obtained his doctorate from the University of Chicago and served as a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the RAND Graduate School. Afterward, he became a U.S. citizen and served as a senior advisor at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, and during the Bush administration, he was responsible for the National Security Council's strategic planning and South Asia affairs.
As a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of State, Tellis played a key role in the negotiations of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement. Between 2005 and 2008, it was under his strong advocacy that the Bush administration not only lifted the international sanctions imposed on India after its 1998 nuclear test, but also introduced the "U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement" despite pressure and criticism, and even lobbied the international community to make exceptions for India, allowing India to be the only exception within the international nuclear non-proliferation regime: not having signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), yet being allowed to import nuclear fuel and technology while retaining its military nuclear capabilities. Behind these operations, Tellis was the main contributor, which fully justified his homeland, India.
Tellis has long worked as a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writing policy articles on Sino-U.S. competition, India's strategic autonomy, and the Indo-Pacific strategy, which are highly influential. His analyses have provided policy basis for successive U.S. administrations and have also served as a "guideline" for the Indian government. This has made Tellis play an irreplaceable dual role as an advocate and interpreter between the U.S. and India — he is responsible for advocating stronger cooperation with India within the U.S. policy circles, and for explaining the U.S. policy towards India to the Indian government leadership.
Tellis represents a shrewd and experienced voice that understands the political realities of both the U.S. and India, and has become one of the important ideological sources of the U.S. version of the Indo-Pacific strategy. He realized that the U.S. was anxious about China's rise, but India could not provide immediate returns in the short term. Therefore, he tirelessly advocated the "strategic altruism" policy — he argued that India's rise, whether in economic, military, or diplomatic terms, would benefit the U.S., because a stronger and more prosperous India would not only meet the profit expectations of U.S. capital, but would also inevitably squeeze, balance, and constrain China's rapid rise in Asia.
This assumption further led to the conclusion: the long-term strategic benefits of India's rise for the U.S. would eventually outweigh the short-term costs and sacrifices the U.S. would have to bear for India, so the U.S. should invest, support, and tolerate India without hesitation, even if there were no immediate returns from India.
However, this key figure in U.S.-India cooperation suddenly found himself in trouble. On October 14, 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Tellis had been arrested for allegedly illegally possessing classified documents. According to the indictment cited by Reuters, Tellis had printed sensitive documents multiple times at the State Department and taken them out of the office area. Later, the FBI found over 1,000 pages of documents marked "Top Secret" and "Secret" in his home, some of which were hidden in file cabinets, envelopes, and even garbage bags. Prosecutors currently charge him with "illegally preserving national defense information," and if convicted, Tellis could face up to ten years in prison and a fine of $250,000.
More notably, the indictment also mentions that Tellis met with Chinese diplomats four times over four years, including one dinner meeting where he carried an envelope. Although there is currently no concrete evidence linking these meetings to Tellis' illegal possession of sensitive documents, the details released so far are sufficient to show the direction of the U.S. authorities.
The reason this incident caused such a big commotion is not only due to Tellis's identity, but also because it conveys a strong policy signal. In the context of the U.S.-India relationship turning cold during Trump's second term, the FBI suddenly launched a high-profile investigation into a specialist with the highest security clearance, who was regarded as the biggest hero of U.S.-India cooperation and the core advisor on U.S.-India policy. The issues of regulatory loopholes and leaks seem like excuses, but the real essence is a policy announcement: during Trump's second term, the U.S. policy toward India has been significantly adjusted, and individuals like Tellis are no longer suitable for existing in the core policy circle.
Tellis's imprisonment officially marks the end of the "strategic altruism" policy toward India. If the U.S. previously did not ask "What has India done for the U.S.?", then Trump now not only asked this crucial question, but also raised it with the loudest voice, the harshest tone, and the crudest words repeatedly.
The days of the U.S. and India "holding hands" may have passed
In recent months, the U.S. has not only pressured India to purchase more arms and energy, but has also imposed a 25% "reciprocal tariff" and an additional 25% secondary tariff on India for its ties with Russia, and has significantly increased H-1B visa fees and restrictions on Indian IT outsourcing in the U.S. In a short time, India, once a "sweetheart" that the U.S. sought to please, has turned into a "nagging wife" that the U.S. finds annoying. The U.S.-India relationship has sharply deteriorated, and many people believe that "the efforts the U.S. has made over the past two decades to improve U.S.-India relations have all been in vain due to Trump."
The arrest of Tellis, a symbol of U.S.-India cooperation, may be a sign of the change in Trump's policy toward India. For India, Tellis's transformation from a U.S. policy favorite to a suspect means that many assumptions that were once considered self-evident will no longer exist. Currently, the U.S. government's concern about its own declining strength clearly outweighs its concern about external geopolitical threats. Therefore, Trump's expectations of India have shifted from "a pawn to contain China" to "a blood bag to sustain America," and he is more concerned about what India can do to help the U.S. survive.
However, India has long enjoyed the U.S.'s strategic support without asking for anything in return, but lacks the industrial and economic foundation of Japan, South Korea, and Europe, who offer concessions and sincerity to the U.S. It is also unwilling to act submissively like them, but instead hesitates in issues such as Russian sanctions and the BRICS mechanism, making it a target of criticism from the Trump administration as "taking advantage of benefits without gratitude, being overconfident and causing trouble."
Tellis himself has long advocated "U.S.-India coordination to counter China," but now he is being investigated for contacting Chinese officials, which is a dramatic irony that serves as a poignant metaphor, reflecting Trump's unique strategic perception: India and China are the same, neither is trustworthy to the U.S., and both threaten American interests.
Looking deeper, Trump may be worried about his own declining strength and no longer willing to spend extra resources supporting India, especially an India that is still rapidly rising. As the relative gap between the U.S. and India continues to shrink, the U.S. may actually feel more wary and resentful of India, because India could become the next China at any time.
If the U.S. political and economic strength declines further globally, the U.S. decision-makers like Trump and the MAGA movement supporters may become more concerned with maintaining their own positions, and for a country like India, whose potential is deep and whose industrial structure is similar to the U.S., they may develop a stronger sense of threat.
How the U.S. judicial system ultimately judges Tellis's actions remains unknown, but regardless of the outcome, this event will become an important milestone in the history of U.S.-India relations. Tellis was once the most intelligent advocate and interpreter of U.S.-India friendship, but now he has become a tragic footnote of Trump's policy of cracking down on India, marking that the U.S.-India relationship may never return to the good old days that Tellis himself created.
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