【What are the odds for Germany's AfD to win, and what would it mean if they succeed?】

This Sunday (September 6), the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany will take place, an event that could shake up the entire German political landscape. The far-right party Germany's Choice Party (AfD) is poised to potentially secure more than half of the vote for the first time, enabling it to form a government independently. Meanwhile, all mainstream parties have generally ruled out cooperation with the AfD.

The outcome of this election is not only drawing attention within Germany but also being closely watched across Europe: a successful result would mark the first major victory for far-right forces since the end of World War II.

Current Political Landscape

Recent polls show the AfD’s support hovering between 40% and 43%, nearly doubling its performance in the 2021 federal election; meanwhile, the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has dropped to just 22%. In addition, only the Left Party and the Social Democrats (SPD) are likely to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary entry, while the Greens remain perilously close to falling short. A key variable lies in the performance of smaller parties: votes cast for parties failing to enter parliament will indirectly boost the effective weight of the AfD’s share. However, whether the AfD can break through the 50% absolute majority threshold remains a significant unknown.

Future Scenario Projections

On September 4, polling firm Zweitstimme revised its forecast, lowering the probability of the AfD securing an outright majority from 33% to 22%. Nevertheless, the party’s state chairperson and gubernatorial candidate, Ulrich Sigmar, continues to target this goal. This objective would only be feasible under two conditions: if the Greens fail to enter parliament (a probability of around 33%) and if the AfD reaches the upper end of the predicted vote range. The most likely scenario, however, is that the AfD becomes the largest party in parliament but lacks sufficient seats to govern alone—thus being excluded from forming the state government.

A second potential path splits into two directions: incumbent Governor Sven Schulz (CDU) may attempt to build a coalition government; or alternatively, a minority government could be formed—such as one comprising the CDU, SPD, and Greens, relying on temporary support from the Left Party. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz leans toward this option, but it poses considerable difficulty and embarrassment for the CDU, which officially opposes formal alliances with both the far-right AfD and the Left Party.

Implications of an AfD Victory

Even if the AfD secures only a minority of seats, the CDU’s disastrous defeat itself would further weaken Chancellor Merz, whose popularity is already low, and shatter the long-standing political consensus among mainstream parties in Germany that completely excludes far-right groups. Should the AfD actually come to power, Saxony-Anhalt would become its testing ground, allowing far-right forces to probe the limits of their policy implementation.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875411601135692/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.