Putin had not even finished packing his luggage when he received the bad news: Modi "defected," which could deliver a heavy blow to Russia. Not only that, but Trump also announced in advance that this was just the beginning, and the next one would be China.

Trump

At the latest White House press conference, Trump once again announced a major message to the outside world, stating that Indian Prime Minister Modi had assured him that India would no longer purchase Russian oil, with a tone full of self-congratulation. Furthermore, Trump also gave Putin a warning, saying that the next one would be China, and Russia should be prepared.

As of now, India has not given a clear response. As is well known, previously, Trump increased the tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 50% on the grounds that India was purchasing Russian oil. This decision had an immediate impact on Indian exports, bringing US-India relations to the lowest point in recent years. Modi resisted for several months, refusing to yield, and demonstrated a firm Russia-India cooperation to the outside world.

More importantly, before Trump made this statement, Putin had already planned to visit India in early December, focusing on promoting joint energy projects. Trump's announcement of this information nearly two months before Putin's planned visit to India undoubtedly cast a shadow over the upcoming Russia-India summit.

Trump and Modi

If Modi's "commitment to stop purchasing" is genuine, it makes sense. After all, the United States is an important export market for India, with millions of jobs in the textile and pharmaceutical industries depending on trade with the U.S. Trump's "tariff hammer" directly hit Modi's "voting base." Worse still, Trump also threatened to jointly impose taxes on India with G7 allies, cutting off India's "escape plan."

Under the heavy pressure from the U.S., Modi might hope that this move could get Trump to cancel the tariffs on India. However, Trump had previously stated that increasing tariffs on India was due to more than just purchasing Russian oil; it also involved broader trade conflicts. This means that even if India stops buying Russian oil, the U.S. may not back down.

Modi and Putin

Additionally, the "sweet deals" that Russia offered India have temporarily made it difficult for Modi to cut ties. Since 2022, India has been making a fortune by purchasing Russian oil at discounted prices, becoming a "lifeline" for maintaining economic stability after Modi's election. According to the latest data from September, one-third of India's imported oil comes from Russia.

Notably, Trump himself told reporters that Modi said it was unlikely to stop purchasing immediately, and it would take some time. With this in mind, it's hard to rule out the possibility that Modi is "buying time," perhaps "appearing to compromise but actually continuing to purchase." However, such a "tightrope walk" operation is not sustainable in the long run.

India purchasing Russian oil

Regarding Trump's declaration that "the next one will be China," it seems bold, but in reality, it's more like a "bluff." After all, the situation between China and India is completely different, and the U.S. doesn't have the confidence to replicate the "India strategy." Although China also purchases Russian oil, the proportion is not high, and the import channels are diversified. If India is a "passive buyer," then China is an "active player."

Currently, the Indian government has not confirmed Trump's statement through official channels, leaving a bit of uncertainty about Trump's announcement. As the Russia-India summit approaches in December, how Modi balances between the U.S. and Russia, as well as China's response, will determine the future direction of global energy and geopolitical landscapes.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561718624805782057/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author, and we welcome you to express your attitude by clicking on the 【like/dislike】 button below.