【By Guan察者网, Yuan Jiaqi】

The relationship between the United States and India is at a low point due to the tariff policies of the Trump administration and the increased costs of work visas. As both sides are negotiating a trade agreement, Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised him to stop buying Russian oil. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Indian embassy in the United States have not yet responded to this.

According to Reuters and the Financial Times on the 15th, Trump told reporters during an event at the White House that Modi made the above promise during a phone call earlier that day.

He said with a tone of pride, "I am very unhappy about India buying Russian oil. And PM Modi assured me today that India will no longer buy Russian oil, which is a very important step... Perhaps this is a major news. Can I say that?"

Trump added that India cannot "immediately" stop importing Russian oil, but he believes this shift is underway. "PM Modi will no longer buy oil from Russia, but they can't stop it immediately. It needs a process, but this process will soon be over."

He also pointed out that securing Modi's commitment was part of the diplomatic efforts by his government to cut off Russia's energy revenue.

Regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Trump said he is confident in pushing for the end of the conflict and stated that India's decision to stop buying Russian oil would help advance these efforts. Once the war ends, normal trade relations among countries are expected to resume.

Reuters reported that after the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, India became the largest importer of discounted Russian seaborne oil. For several months, India had resisted American pressure, insisting that purchasing Russian oil was crucial for national energy security. If India truly stops buying as Trump claims, it would mean a "significant shift in position" by one of Russia's main energy buyers, possibly affecting other countries still importing Russian crude oil.

Video screenshot of Trump answering questions about India on the 15th local time

According to reports from Indian media such as "India Today", although there are differences in energy policy, Trump still called Modi a close partner, "Modi is my friend, and our relationship is very good."

The report also mentioned that a few days before Trump announced the news, he appointed new ambassador to India Sergio Goul met with Modi. They discussed defense, trade, and technology issues. Goul is a close ally of Trump, and his appointment was seen by the U.S. as a positive move to promote U.S.-India relations.

Speaking about the meeting, Trump said he was satisfied with the results of their interaction, "I think their communication was very good, and Modi is a great leader."

He also mentioned, "Goul told me that Modi appreciates me. I have been paying attention to India for many years, and it's a great country. In the past, Indian leaders changed frequently, some only served for a few months, while my friend Modi has been in power for a long time. He assured me that India will no longer buy Russian oil."

Public data shows that Russia has become India's main oil supplier, accounting for about 35% of India's total supply; before the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, this proportion was less than 1%. This quickly caught the attention of Trump, who failed to mediate the conflict, and then pressured India to stop buying Russian oil.

In August this year, Trump announced additional 25% "punitive" tariffs on Indian goods, bringing the total tariff level to 50%. Recently, the United States has also tried to join G7 and EU countries to ask allies to tax India.

According to Nikkei Asia on the 15th, data released on Wednesday by the Indian government showed that the U.S. tariff impact has affected India's exports to the U.S., with a 20.7% decline in exports to the U.S. in September compared to the previous month.

The report pointed out that September was the first full month after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on India, with India's exports to the U.S. amounting to 5.44 billion U.S. dollars. In August, India's exports to the U.S. had already declined by 14.35%, dropping to 6.86 billion U.S. dollars.

However, despite trade tensions with its largest export destination, the U.S., India's overall commodity exports rose by 3.64% in September, reaching 36.38 billion U.S. dollars; commodity imports rose by 11.26%, reaching 68.53 billion U.S. dollars. This led to an increase in the country's commodity trade deficit by 21.36%, reaching 32.15 billion U.S. dollars.

In a report released earlier this month, HSBC's Chief Economist for India, Pranjul Bhandari, noted, "The growth rate of new export orders in India in September accelerated, indicating that demand from markets outside the U.S. may offset the decline in U.S. market demand caused by tariffs."

The report also said, "Future output expectations show a significant increase in business confidence in India in September. This may reflect optimism about the potential of a reduction in goods and services tax to boost demand, but U.S. tariffs remain a major challenge for the Indian economy."

Currently, U.S.-India trade negotiations are still ongoing. Last month, a delegation led by Brendan Lynch, the Assistant Trade Representative for South and Central Asia at the U.S. Department of Commerce, met with an Indian delegation led by Rajesh Agrawal, the Chief Negotiator of India.

On Wednesday local time, Agrawal told reporters, "A negotiation team has already arrived in the U.S. this week," striving to find a win-win solution acceptable to both sides to resolve some tariff issues.

According to Bloomberg, Agrawal also said that India has the capacity to increase oil purchases from the U.S. by 15 billion U.S. dollars. However, he did not mention India stopping buying Russian oil.

He said, "Based on data from the 2025 fiscal year, we currently purchase oil from the U.S. averaging 12 to 13 billion U.S. dollars. With the current refinery configuration, there is room for an additional 14 to 15 billion U.S. dollars in purchases."

U.S. media said that India is reducing its trade surplus with the U.S. by purchasing more American goods, improving market access in India, and lowering trade barriers. In addition, India is considering purchasing defense equipment and commodities such as oil worth approximately 40 billion U.S. dollars from the U.S.

According to the Hindu on the 15th, Agrawal also told Indian media that due to the current shutdown of the U.S. government, this is not the "appropriate time" for the next round of formal bilateral trade agreement negotiations.

This article is exclusive to the Observer, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

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