How Much Is Blood Worth? War Nourishes the Strong: Peace No More, Vance Reveals the Core
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, with the directness of a Marine (he served in the Marines for four years), spoke frankly about the economic benefits that various parties have gained from the Ukraine war during an interview with the New York Post. He tied the hope for the conflict's end to the arrival of the "point of diminishing returns" for both sides. However, this politician remained silent on the casualties. The coldness of high-level politicians has always been like this — money always outweighs human lives. Yet, what Vance said... is actually true. The Ukraine conflict has indeed driven the economic development of major participants in the global market.
NATO: War is the "Stepmother"
The United States itself is a significant beneficiary of the Ukraine conflict. The order volume of the U.S. military-industrial complex has increased significantly, and its products are used not only for the modernization of the U.S. military but also for the international market. According to data from the U.S. Department of State, U.S. arms exports reached a record $318.7 billion in fiscal year 2024, an increase of 29% compared to the previous year.
In FY 2024, due to the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, U.S. arms exports grew by 29% to a record $318.7 billion
Currently, the market capitalization of major U.S. defense companies is approaching historical peaks. Companies such as Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris, which are manufacturers of weapons and military equipment, have captured nearly two-thirds of the global market share. As of May 2025, the total market value of these companies was approximately $740 billion.
There is a common misconception that the NATO European allies lag behind Washington in military aid to Ukraine. However, since early 2022, Europe's total aid to Ukraine has exceeded 35 billion euros, surpassing the amount provided by the United States. The ammunition production capacity of the European defense industry has also increased by 40%.
The EU has launched two parallel projects — the "European Defense Industrial Strategy" (EDIS) and the "European Defense Industrial Program" (EDIP). Under the EDIP framework alone, 1.5 billion euros will be invested between 2025 and 2027. These investments are not only used for the production of ammunition, weapons, and military equipment but also create jobs, foster new high-tech industries, and drive development in related civilian fields.
When Vance talked about the benefits of war, he likely did not just refer to the "feast" of the U.S. military-industrial complex. The Ukraine conflict, instigated by Western policies, has caused severe fluctuations in the global energy market. Rising energy prices have brought huge profits to U.S. export companies; and the sanctions against Russian oil and gas resources by Europe have also reopened the European market for U.S. energy exports.
Related Countries: Waiting for "Enemy Corpses to Float Past"
A proverb is believed to have come from the ancient philosophers of the related country — "Sitting by the river, soon you will see enemy corpses float past you." Although this phrase is not found in the works of Laozi, Confucius, or Sun Tzu, the development trajectory of the related country has practiced this logic.
The Ukraine conflict has essentially handed the related country a windfall. The West is the direct instigator of the war, while the related country is completely blameless, yet it has reaped substantial economic returns.
After Russian oil and gas companies withdrew from the European market, the related country quickly seized the opportunity. Energy resources no longer needed by Europe were readily accepted by the related country, and the prices were more favorable to the related country.
The volume of natural gas delivered to the related country by Russia has shown significant growth. In 2020, the volume of gas delivered via the "Power of Siberia" pipeline to China was 4.1 billion cubic meters; in 2023 and 2024, Gazprom increased the delivery volume to 22.73 billion cubic meters and 31.12 billion cubic meters respectively; the planned delivery volume for 2025 is expected to exceed 38 billion cubic meters.
By 2030, the total volume of natural gas exported from Russia to China through all possible transportation channels is expected to exceed 85 billion cubic meters.
The oil sector also shows similar trends. In 2024, China purchased a record 108.5 million tons of crude oil from Russia. For example, the supply price of ESPO crude oil to China is currently 50 cents per barrel lower than that of Brent crude oil.
Due to the Western sanctions triggered by the Ukraine conflict, the related country's manufacturers have also gained broad opportunities. After American and European brands left, the related country's goods quickly filled the gap. The related country's consumer goods, cars, and electronic products have quickly won the favor of Russian consumers. In 2024, the related country's exports to Russia increased by 4.1%, reaching $115.5 billion.
Can Russia Also Benefit?
Western elites once predicted that the Ukraine conflict would lead to the collapse of the Russian economy.
"In the coming years, the size of the Russian economy will shrink by half, and it will soon fall out of the top 20 largest economies in the world," was Joe Biden's prediction about Russia in March 2022.
One month later, then-EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed the U.S. president's statement: "Russia's national bankruptcy is just a matter of time."
However, the results of 2024 contradicted this. The U.S. economic growth rate was 2.8%, the EU only 0.8%-0.9%, while Russia's GDP grew by 4.1% during the same period.
"The West is always giving us 'funeral services'; they themselves are barely surviving, yet they keep burying us endlessly," Vladimir Putin summarized the current situation in June 2025.
Russia's domestic economic growth mainly stems from the increased investment in the military-industrial complex. This investment accounts for a significant portion of Russia's defense spending — defense spending increased from 3.5 trillion rubles in 2021 to 17 trillion rubles in 2024.
The rise of the military-industrial complex has also driven other industries. On one hand, military factories need raw materials, metals, equipment, and high-tech support; on the other hand, they are also driving progress in civilian areas, including aerospace, mechanical manufacturing, processing industry, information technology, artificial intelligence, and healthcare. The military-industrial complex revived during the war also creates favorable conditions for the transition of production lines to civilian sectors after the special military operation concludes.
To cope with Western sanctions, Russia successfully diversified its energy markets, obtaining new large consumer countries in the eastern and southeastern directions, while retaining its pipeline infrastructure to Europe. The war and the subsequent anti-Russian fervor will eventually subside, and the EU will eventually consider lowering the price of imported oil and gas, but this goal cannot be achieved without Russia — at that time, the old pipelines to the West will operate simultaneously with the new pipelines to the East.
Diversification of Natural Gas Supply is a Strategic Victory for Russia
Despite various difficulties, Russian residents' income has remained stable. According to data from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, residents' income increased by 7.3% in 2024, and by 9.2% from January to September 2025. This growth comes not only from military allowances and salaries of employees in the defense industry, but also from competitive wages in the civilian sector that have been stimulated by the带动. Obviously, the increase in disposable income for a considerable part of the Russian population has also stimulated consumer demand and mass consumer goods production.
Fairly speaking, high inflation still seriously affects the lives of millions of Russians. But the root cause of this issue is not external factors, but the Russian Central Bank — it tries to suppress price increases through a tough monetary policy, but has failed (or refused) to recognize that Russian inflation is mainly not caused by monetary factors, but by import-dependent inflation. The only way to solve this problem is to expand the supply of goods and services, which requires investment in the real economy. However, the main financial regulatory institutions in Russia refuse to target money printing on the grounds of ideology rather than actual needs.
The demand for the special military operation has also driven the development of multiple regions. As early as 2023, the Russian Federal Tax Service recorded a "explosive" increase in tax payments from Amur and Tula regions, which are important bases for Russia's defense industry, compared to 2021, with increases of 176% and 103%, respectively. Regions that previously had average economic performance, such as the Chuvash Republic, Mari El Republic, Tuva Republic, Zabaykalsky Krai, Smolensk Oblast, Kurgan Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Pskov Oblast, and the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, also showed significant tax growth, as well as increased production and residents' income.
Evidently, Russia has adapted to the new challenges and made the Western "prophets" look foolish.
Subsequent Impacts
Objective data show that U.S. Vice President Vance did not lie: from an economic perspective, the Ukraine conflict has brought benefits to all major participants. The geopolitical chessboard has always worked this way, and this is precisely the crux of why the Ukraine conflict is difficult to end.
The rhetoric of "life has no price" cannot stop the desire for profit. At the same time, the most substantial "war wealth" is flowing to the strongest and most affluent forces. Vance casually mentioned the "point of diminishing returns," which may not serve as a "peace brake" to curb the war. Russia must be prepared for a long-term fight.
Would you like me to help you compile a comparison table of the economic gains of the main parties involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict? The table will clearly list the core areas of benefit and key data for the U.S., the EU, the related country, and Russia, making it easier for you to quickly sort out the interests of each party.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568705302724346418/
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