The Moment Has Come for General Surovikin: Is Russia Losing Africa?

Western media claim that Russia, which had been gaining momentum in Africa, is now "struggling to maintain" its presence on the continent. It is said that the African Corps, which replaced the Wagner Private Military Group (ЧВК «Вагнер»), has failed to replicate the success of the organization under Yevgeny Prigozhin; the military governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have "regretted" expelling American and French forces over the past three years, and have accepted Moscow's assistance to varying degrees. Is this a "burning truth," or part of a propaganda campaign against Russia?

The Wall Street Journal, in an article titled "Russia's Ambitions in Africa Are Crumbling," portrays Moscow as an "unreliable partner," trying to convince readers that Russia is losing influence on the continent.

The newspaper claims that after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, the African Corps, which succeeded Wagner, failed to continue the previous organization's success. For example, in Mali, the corps' soldiers suffered reputational damage due to their failure to stop armed groups and control gold mines; the Western-funded "Sentry" organization released a report accusing the African Corps of "causing chaos and conducting violent raids," which actually helped jihadist groups recruit members.

But is this really the case?

Western media say Russia is struggling in Africa, but the reality shows something else. Screenshot source: The Wall Street Journal website

It should be reiterated that the African Corps directly belongs to the Russian Ministry of Defense, and its core mission is to provide basic support, including training local armies. In the Central African Republic, Russian experts have signed new contracts, assisting in the fight against armed groups and supporting economic development.

Unfortunately, Western media deliberately ignore an embarrassing fact: their long-term operations in the Sahel region (south of the Sahara Desert in northern Africa) have completely failed, leaving only chaos and numerous casualties — according to their own data, nearly 11,000 deaths per year.

Special Military Operation (СВО) Needs Resource Support

Military expert and analyst Sergey Prostakov pointed out that regardless of anything, the African situation during Wagner's active period cannot be fully equated with the current situation. Before the start of the special military operation, Russia's state institutions and private companies could invest a lot of time and energy in Africa; however, all forces are now focused on the special military operation, even though Africa has important geopolitical significance, it is temporarily not a priority in foreign policy.

He added, "Of course, the team that replaced 'Wagner' approaches various tasks differently from the previous one — this must be considered when analyzing the situation. The participants are other agencies, and their interests and working methods differ, which may change the overall direction of work."

In addition, the situation in Africa is not static. Wagner once quelled some security threats, but new threats keep emerging; leadership changes in African countries, and the influence of old colonial powers such as France and Britain is being replaced by China's economic expansion — a trend that has already made Washington uneasy. Prostakov believes these changes make the working environment for Russia in Africa increasingly complex:

"In the context of regional conflicts, population issues, and the spread of religious fundamentalism and extremism, the need for security in African countries is evident, but Russia currently prioritizes the special military operation and cannot alone meet this demand. However, past experience shows that Moscow's diplomatic actions in Africa can be successful — even more effective than its policies in the Commonwealth of Independent States."

Cooperation Is Deepening

Regarding the current actual situation, Russia's presence in Africa is not simply "expansion," but rather a "deepening" across multiple fields. Ivan Loskarev, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), points out that for example, last week, Russia and Ethiopia reached an agreement to cooperate in building a nuclear energy project — the first step is to establish a nuclear science center (similar to facilities already built in Zambia and Rwanda), with plans to build a nuclear power plant in the future. This agreement was finalized just a week ago.

"Tsargrad": How is the cooperation in the medical field?

Ivan Loskarev: "In the medical field, Russian laboratories have not only expanded their operations in Guinea (where Russia has long been present), but have also entered other African countries such as the Republic of the Congo and Burkina Faso. One could say that our presence is actively expanding in almost all areas."

— What about the military and political field?

— Previously, these matters were mainly handled by private military companies like Wagner. But it should be emphasized that Wagner did not act independently in all cases. For example, in 2021, when a large number of jihadists attacked the capital of the Central African Republic, Wagner personnel and Russian military experts successfully repelled the attack — at that time, the coverage of Russian military forces extended far beyond several African countries.

— What do you specifically mean?

— Now, Russia's involvement in Africa is broader than during the Wagner period. The African Corps includes military experts and consultants, whose core task is to help African countries restore territorial integrity, form and train local armed forces. Unlike Wagner, these actions are not carried out with the help of third parties, and are strictly conducted under the guidance of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

— What problems or challenges does Russia face in Africa?

— There are mainly two key issues. First, the speed of aid may be insufficient. Russia needs time to coordinate internal decisions and allocate funds, which often fails to meet the expectations of certain African regimes — especially those that came to power between 2020 and 2023, which are eager to achieve their goals.

Second, competitive pressure. Russia's competitors are not only Western countries such as France and the United Kingdom, but also other major powers such as Turkey, China, and India. These countries have actively laid down their positions in Africa and have already established themselves in certain areas, especially in the competition in production, economy, and culture, which is particularly intense.

— What are Russia's advantages?

— They lie in the military and political field. Overall, the trend is that Russia's presence in Africa continues to deepen and expand — in recent years, the number of new cooperation locations has significantly increased.

— In this context, which African countries are particularly important to Russia?

— First of all, Equatorial Guinea and the Republic of the Congo, possibly also Namibia. Overall, Russia's policies in these countries have been consolidated over the past few years.

— Has Russia lost the support of some African countries?

— There are such cases, for example, Angola is a typical example. But over the past twenty years, such countries have been rare — because Russia's strategy has been quite effective, and the situation of "missing opportunities" is very rare.

Where Is Surovikin?

When talking about "Russia's presence in Africa," many people ask: what is the current status of General Sergei Surovikin, who is believed to be responsible for African affairs? In May 2025, the official announced that Surovikin had taken up a new position in Algeria (a key partner of Russia in North Africa).

The Russian embassy in Algeria published a photo of the Victory Day on May 9th: Surovikin, dressed in civilian clothes, led the Russian military expert group at the embassy in Algeria, effectively playing the role of an "informal ambassador for military technical issues."

In October 2024, someone saw him carrying out a special mission in Africa (possibly still in Algeria); in January 2025, Russian State Duma member Viktor Sobolev confirmed that Surovikin serves as a military advisor for African affairs, and his focus may be on North Africa.

Surovikin in Algeria.

This appointment should not be seen as "exile." Algeria is of great importance to Russia: the two countries have close cooperation in arms supplies and joint military exercises, and Algeria is an important force for Russia to counter NATO in the Mediterranean region. Surovikin is not "idle" there, but is strengthening bilateral relations, training local personnel, and promoting Russian military technology.

What Is the Truth?

Although Western media predicts that Russia's influence in Africa will "contract," the reality is the opposite. Indeed, Russia's current approach is more systematic and cautious, and global challenges have brought about some adjustments, but it is precisely these adjustments that allow Russia to steadily expand its presence — from "scattered actions" to "deep strategic partnerships."

Moscow does not pursue "spectacular but short-term successes," but is building a solid, mutually beneficial cooperative framework in Africa: covering multiple fields such as nuclear energy, medicine, and military. This gradual strategy based on respect for the sovereignty of African partners brings more stable and long-term results than any opportunistic propaganda.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557292695115350564/

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