[By columnist Chen Jing of Guancha Observer]
How to view India has always been a topic of endless debate on the Internet. Those who are optimistic about India believe that its large population and huge market potential, along with its rapidly growing economy, will allow it to occupy a more important position in the global economy in the future. On the other hand, critics often point out problems such as backward infrastructure and huge wealth gaps.
Under the conflict between India and Pakistan, India's military strength was exposed to the world, but this did not prevent Modi from promoting his "idealistic victory theory." This is also a unique mindset displayed by India in recent years on the international stage: no matter what difficulties it faces, India can always find reasons for self-affirmation and promote its "victory."
Indian media and officials have widely publicized this, viewing it as another milestone in India's rise. The Modi government has further promoted plans like "Make in India" and "Digital India," attempting to establish a new image for India in the global economy.
India's Idealistic Victory Theory
On May 27th, Prime Minister Modi officially proposed that India had surpassed Japan to become the fourth largest economy. A few days earlier, on May 24th, Subrahmanyam, Chief Executive Officer of India's National Transformation Council, announced that India's economy had reached the $4 trillion mark. This figure is based on IMF data, which actually estimates that India's nominal GDP for the fiscal year 2025-2026 will reach $4.187 trillion, slightly higher than Japan's $4.186 trillion.
If there are no unexpected events, this will happen when the official data is released at the end of the Indian fiscal year in the first quarter of 2026. India is eager to publicize this, and although somewhat hasty, it is just a matter of time before it happens, more or less.
I am shocked by the fact that India's "Operation Sindhu Victory Propaganda," which lasted for ten consecutive days starting May 13th, seemed to have achieved great results. Now, Indian public opinion confidently claims that the military operation against Pakistan has achieved an overwhelming victory and has also struck China, proving that Chinese weapons are ineffective.
I thought India's air battle loss of 0:6, with at least two aircraft (including one Rafale) shot down, was irrefutable evidence everywhere, and outside doubts were constantly raised, making it difficult to block information, and propaganda should have encountered significant trouble, leading to a confidence crisis. However, the Indian side responded in ways beyond imagination, successfully promoting their propaganda. Indian public opinion shows no signs of a confidence crisis; all unfavorable news is considered rumors from the Pakistani side.
Currently, India's confidence in national development is at a high level. Because of this, outrageous, bare-faced lying, and cover-up victory propaganda actions can succeed. India refuses to accept the truth of the air force's defeat and emphasizes the achievements against Pakistan. Combined with some actual images of bombed bases, people genuinely believe they have won militarily. It's not because the official methods are particularly sophisticated, but rather because Indian public opinion welcomes such victory propaganda and actively rejects unfavorable information.
This propaganda campaign has made the world witness the power of "India's Winning Theory." In an era where information is theoretically open and difficult to block, this is indeed unimaginable. However, if people actively block their own minds and only look at favorable evidence, it is possible.
One of Modi's greatest skills is manipulating Indian public opinion to deify himself. Coupled with relatively decent development achievements compared to the past, he has launched the "India Winning Theory." Now, Modi has become a symbol of India's rise, portrayed as an undefeated war god. Therefore, it is necessary to understand from India's perspective what kind of development achievements India has achieved over these years.
I believe that the "India Winning Theory" has extremely important significance for India itself, encouraging a momentum of development. Although it may seem ridiculous, far-fetched, and self-deceptive to outsiders, compared to the era when even the "winning theory" couldn't be established, it is still better for India to vigorously promote the "winning theory."
Although the public opinion mocks "winning politics," ask yourself how many countries can promote the "winning theory"? Upon deeper reflection, you'll discover that only China, the United States, and India can do so. China is the "realism" winning theory, with very high standards, and real achievements are often questioned; the U.S. is the "hegemony" winning theory, bullying others with its power, insisting on winning, but encountering some realistic problems, sometimes needing to claim victory even when it hasn't happened, vaguely moving towards India; India is the "idealism" winning theory, through sophistry, complete shamelessness, self-deception, philosophical depth, and full participation, trying to gain long-term development confidence.
If judged by China's standards, India's development achievements are quite ordinary, with only a few indicators such as population, IT service outsourcing, and remittances surpassing China. But according to India's own standards and the standards of third-world underdeveloped countries, India can publicize various achievements after Modi came to power, with numerous figures and cases. Among developing countries, only India can publicize development achievements like China does, updating numbers in many fields continuously.
In this context, Indian public opinion originally believed it was stronger than China, but due to China's development surpassing many developed countries, and the emergence of a flood of Chinese video information, India once experienced a "refusal to believe" trend. Indian public opinion believed that Chinese videos were CG animations or only filmed a few sample rich areas, demanding to film backward areas in central-western China and slums. Currently, Indian public opinion has reluctantly accepted that China's development achievements are higher, but believes that India can catch up with long-term efforts. On the other hand, Indian public opinion refuses to believe in China's military strength, sticking to the narrative that "Chinese weapons are inferior Russian imitations, inferior to India's advanced and self-developed weapons."
Both Indian and Chinese citizens have the side of "gladly seeing the development achievements of their own country," producing a lot of daily output. The difference is that Chinese public opinion is generally more open and introspective, while also having a strong sense of "falling behind and learning from advanced countries." Chinese public opinion has a unique, "unacceptable development achievement" quirk globally, because some people worship and fear the West too much. This is not strange; it is common for developing country citizens. But China has triumphed in countless fields over Western countries, and now competes with the United States without falling behind. This impact is too great, some souls are shaken, unable to accept it, and turn to abnormal psychology.
Indian public opinion is relatively closed, with a strong idealistic tendency. On one hand, Indian public opinion feels the massive changes brought by growth and accepts official victory propaganda; on the other hand, people's lives are still at a global low level, widespread suffering phenomena exist everywhere, severe corruption and social maladies have left some groups in a disastrous situation.
This can be compared to China's state before 2000 when the overall society was thriving, but individuals sought opportunities abroad. At that time, China had many development opportunities domestically, and the foreign trade led by the new century manufacturing industry and infrastructure development led by real estate boomed, with urbanization expanding super-large-scale and rural populations rapidly urbanizing, quickly resulting in a labor shortage. After a decade or two, it was sometimes found that those who went abroad ended up as failures.
The key to observing India lies here: although the overall development trend is good among developing countries, it certainly cannot replicate China's economic miracle. Although India is vigorously promoting itself internationally as the "next China" and "replacing China," its manufacturing, foreign trade, and urbanization cannot find a path similar to China's. Therefore, measured by China's standards, India's development is a failure. But this doesn't mean India hasn't developed; there are indeed significant achievements, which can be very successfully publicized using India's擅长 idealistic propaganda methods, something easily overlooked by Chinese public opinion.
India already has considerable achievements, and its idealistic winning theory can be promoted, which is a major breakthrough. However, India's achievements are far from enough, including militarily. India's promotion of the winning theory will inevitably require long-term idealistic promotion. We will see more unimaginable Indian winning theory operations in the future.
India's Economic Development Achievements
Previously, India's winning theory could not be promoted because its economic total was too far behind. The true feeling of great development began after Modi took office in 2014, accelerating the change.
According to IMF data, in 2014 India's GDP was $2.04 trillion, ranking only tenth globally, really hard to win. Ahead were the United States, China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Brazil, Italy, and Russia. The U.S. and China's leading GDPs are not listed here, showing India overtaking five countries, especially overtaking Britain, its colonial ruler for 250 years in 2021. This had a significant psychological impact on Indians.
India's exchange rate GDP overtaking chart based on IMF data
Measured by China's standards, it is easy to think that India's economic total keeps overtaking previous countries solely due to its large population. But when China surpassed Japan in 2009, it wasn't like that. Japan was then the second largest economy with much greater influence than now. Many people back then thought overtaking Japan would be distant. Now that India is about to overtake Japan, it isn't just due to a large population; jumping from a position more than ten places behind to fourth place cannot be explained solely by population, there must be some reasons.
It should be noted that India's approximately $4 trillion GDP total is reasonable and not a result of statistical fraud. In 2024, India's steel production was 1.8 times that of Japan, cement production was 10 times, electricity generation was 1.8 times, smartphone sales were 5 times, and even automobile sales of 4.96 million units led Japan's 4.42 million units.
India's GDP statistics are definitely problematic, sometimes including some unreasonable figures, but there is also a vast underground economy that goes uncounted. With these solid data, even if India uses various methods to inflate its GDP to be higher than Japan's, it remains within a reasonable range. By India's standards, these are extremely solid indicators, requiring no effort, and can be considered "truthful statements," not needing to use invincible debating techniques.
Based on purchasing power parity (PPP), India's 2024 GDP is $16 trillion, ranking third globally, far ahead of Russia's $6.9 trillion. China, the U.S., and India rank first in terms of population, and many industries' hard data are globally top three. In three to four years, when India's exchange rate GDP formally surpasses Japan and Germany to come in third place, it can be anticipated.
India's economic total will easily reach third place globally, and the principle is "domestic market-driven growth." This has been elaborated in my February 2024 article, "Learning from China to Establish a Domestic Market-Driven Growth Model, We Need to Face India's Economic Rise."
China, the U.S., and India have become the only three independent "large markets" globally, with market scales far ahead of other countries. The gap with subsequent countries will continue to widen. India's large market, measured by GDP value and transaction amount, has not yet significantly distanced itself from Germany, Japan, the UK, and France, but in terms of quantity, its scale has already become extremely large, showcasing characteristics similar to China. The trend is very clear; only China, the U.S., and India can imagine global-level "big wins" and promote "winning theories."
For example, the Indian mobile phone market has undergone a fundamental transformation. In 2024, smartphone sales reached 156 million units, second only to China's 285 million units. Moreover, the Indian mobile phone market is clearly moving toward higher-end products. According to Counterpoint data, in the third quarter of 2024, India's high-end smartphones (over 30,000 rupees, 2,600 RMB) saw double-digit growth, and wallet-swelling Indians are willing to upgrade to better phones; sales of entry-level smartphones (below 10,000 rupees, 870 RMB) dropped by one-third.
IDC research shows that in India's entry-level high-end smartphone market in 2024, the 200-400 USD price segment grew by 42%, higher than 21% in 2023. The ultra-high-end market at 600-800 USD grew by 86%, reaching 4% market share, not much but with high growth. In this segment, Apple's share increased to 71%, Samsung fell from 30% to 19%, and OnePlus also has some share.
Apple has also significantly increased its focus on the Indian market. In 2024, Apple's iPhone shipments in India reached 12 million units, growing by 35%, with sales of 10.7 billion USD, growing by 33%. This is also the market foundation for Apple's plan to move all iPhones sold in the U.S. to be shipped from India by the end of 2026.
Globally, in the long term, it is the three economies of China, the U.S., and India that lead the way in size, far surpassing other countries. That's why Goldman Sachs dares to release exaggerated expectations like "India's economy will surpass the U.S. by 2075."
Modi reiterated on May 27th that India will become a developed country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of independence. This is based on already achieved high growth, combined with India's idealistic exaggerated propaganda methods, but the momentum is impressive.
Indian citizens have seen their GDP surpass Russia, Brazil, Italy, France, and their former colonial ruler, the UK, and now surpass the previous second-place Japan. It is certain that India will also surpass Germany. This gives people a strong sense of upward momentum.
From 2014 to 2024, India's GDP grew from $2.04 trillion to $3.84 trillion, increasing by 88%, with an annual growth rate of 6.5%. Vietnam's growth multiple during the same period was higher, with GDP growing from $186.2 billion to $476.3 billion, increasing by 156%, with an annualized growth rate of 10%. Vietnam's GDP has been statistically adjusted upward, with a smaller base, and international influence is not as big as India's, but it has also set a goal to become a developed country by 2045.
During the same period, China's GDP grew from $10.47 trillion to $18.94 trillion, increasing by 81%, not slower than India's growth rate. However, China has stated that it will always be a member of developing countries and "demystifies" developed countries. Many people clearly feel that developed countries are just like any others, with not necessarily better lives, supply of goods, and convenience of life not as good as China, just higher per capita income, but at the cost of prices being ridiculously high. This indicates that China is preparing to win realistically as a developing country, and in the future, it may not rely on high prices to inflate nominal GDP to surpass the U.S., but instead pursue substantial improvements in living standards.
If India and Vietnam have China's current economic indicators and per capita indicators by 2045-2047, it can be said that they have fully achieved developed status. This requires India's 2023 economic total to quintuple, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% for exchange rate GDP, which is not unimaginable. If India can maintain a medium-to-high growth rate of 6%-7% in the long term, while maintaining an acceptable exchange rate performance, it should be able to truly experience transformative changes brought by long-term economic growth. If this assumption holds, India's idealistic winning theory will reach new heights, winning globally rather than being mocked by outsiders.
Sustainability of India's Economic Growth
Whether India can achieve its planned 20-year sustained growth or Goldman Sachs's expected 20-50 year continuous growth is the core issue in observing India. If one does not believe in India's economy, it is equivalent to predicting that India cannot maintain a 6%-7% economic growth rate or will encounter common developing country economic disasters such as a sharp currency devaluation or a significant GDP reversal.
I believe that India's unique demographic advantage has formed tremendous development momentum, which has already begun to take effect and is unique among developing countries. India's current development morale has risen, and it is highly likely to achieve substantial long-term economic growth. However, due to its habitual exaggeration, the time frame can be estimated a bit longer. For example, although India may make significant progress by 2047, it will still be far from China's current level of development, and it will be embarrassing to call itself a developed country. But by then, another time point like 2067 can be set, continuing to win; by then, there will be more supporters.
Comparable to this is that during China's peak development phase, it had uniqueness among developing countries. No matter what problems were said, a 10% economic growth rate was not difficult to achieve, and sometimes it reached 12%-14%. India falls short in every aspect compared to China, but it has the same uniqueness, with long-term economic growth rates of 5%-7%, or conservatively speaking, 4%-6%, which should not be difficult to achieve. Under favorable conditions, it can reach 6%-7% growth; under less favorable conditions, it might be 4%-5%. Initially, some people stubbornly predicted the collapse of China's economy, which fundamentally did not hold water, and similarly, "India collapse theory" should not be promoted either.
India's natural resource conditions are far worse than China's, and China belongs to countries with relatively poor per capita resource conditions internationally. Just looking at shipping, the Yangtze River is much better than the Ganges. India's only notable resource is its people, and now India has started utilizing this human resource, resulting in the initial formation of the "Indian large market."
India already has a relatively systematic long-term development roadmap. As Amitabh Kant, India's G20 coordinator, wrote in an article for The Times of India, India can leap from a $4 trillion economy to a $30 trillion economy. Institutional reforms are needed, establishing a comprehensive digital approval system, cutting redundant industry regulatory provisions. Tax reform is required, incorporating oil, electricity, and real estate into a unified tax system to enhance government finances and reduce compliance costs for small and medium-sized enterprises. Clean energy technology localization is necessary, with a significant increase in photovoltaic and wind power equipment production capacity. Talent strategies are essential, attracting global scientists.
India has various long-term growth ideas and is not a helpless developing poor country. Although elites generally want to leave India, with political strongmen, religiousized party forces, and native tycoons at its core, India can implement some long-term plans and is not "a scattered mess."
India was forcibly unified from hundreds of princely states at its founding, lacking a unified historical tradition, and languages were very dispersed. However, as the "winning theory" narrative gradually achieved breakthrough progress, national identity across India showed accelerated development. Some separatist issues that previously caused significant troubles have gradually been resolved. The trigger for the recent Indo-Pakistani conflict was India's abolition of Article 370 of the Constitution, canceling the special autonomous status of Indian-controlled Kashmir and placing it directly under central government management. This triggered a major military setback, but the extreme "winning theory" stabilized the situation, also indicating that India has the confidence to strongly promote national integration.
Shui Su, who married a Ladakh wife, told the story of outsiders coming to settle in the Ladakh region, triggering a local commodity economy boom. Such stories are part of India's regional economic phenomena. It's easy to understand; once consumer awareness awakens and there are economic conditions, consumption frenzy will erupt.
Morgan Stanley's latest Purchasing Managers' Index report shows that in April 2025, India's manufacturing PMI reached 58.2, and the service sector PMI rose to 58.7, surpassing all major economies to become the global growth leader. This is very natural; any upgrade from a low-level consumption base is excellent progress.
India's luck is that despite having little direct involvement in the global technological revolution (excluding overseas Indian elites), it became one of the largest beneficiaries among developing countries due to its large market, second only to China. Considering China's enormous contribution to global technology and productivity, India can be considered the biggest "free rider" beneficiary, achieving good fortune without doing anything extraordinary.
Without the development of related technologies for smartphones, chips, and electronic components, and without China making smartphone production efficient and cost-effective, and without East Asian smartphone supply chain manufacturers organizing production in India, India would not have achieved its current growth achievements.
But these conditions have emerged, and looking at a market of 1.4 billion people, global merchants with technological and production capabilities cannot ignore India and will actively come to make money. India can even harshly punish contributing merchants with a big stick, but they cannot be driven away; this is the power of a large market.
I can assert that as long as India does not completely close itself off, as long as it retains a bit of realistic "opportunistic" tactical cunning, and provides a little sweetener to capable merchants, the large market alone will be enough to attract global merchants to make money. Sometimes, India's government is too harsh, and due to its history with the East India Company, it has an adverse attitude toward global companies, causing foreign direct investment (FDI) to decrease. But as long as the Indian government shows an intention to "really give you the opportunity to make money," some merchants will assess the situation and enter India. Another route is for global companies to partner with local tycoon families, operate under contract but give up majority equity, to gain access to the Indian market.
India's luck is truly incredible, its potential immense, and it is difficult to find a second large market that has not been fully developed globally. Both China and the U.S. are large markets, but competition in China's market is fierce, domestic companies are too strong, and foreign companies need abundant resources or sufficient strength to have a chance; the U.S. market is ruthless, engaging in tariff wars, and trade barriers rival India's, making entry very difficult. Only India's market has weak domestic companies, with the most certain momentum for consumption upgrades, and many market blanks.
As long as India mimics China at a basic level, its growth can last for a long time. For example, if India's market shifts to high-performance smartphones, the growth space is enormous; population growth continues, and it's just a matter of time before smartphone sales exceed China's. Also, the small electric vehicles all over China, categorized as two-wheelers in India, have a good growth rate, with total two-wheeler sales of 17.974 million units in the 2023-24 fiscal year, of which electric two-wheelers sold 1.15 million units, growing by 33%. China's electric two-wheelers sold 56.7 million units in 2022, dropping to 49.5 million units in 2024 due to market saturation. Clearly, India's smartphone and electric two-wheeler markets have extremely broad prospects, and such products will be numerous.
Facing such a large market, can Chinese enterprises simply say "no"? Chinese enterprises will actively seek solutions, overcoming India's malicious interference and annoying operations, to capture the Indian market. I agree with the proactive operations of Chinese enterprises. Currently, around 73% of the Indian mobile phone market is dominated by Chinese brands, almost comparable to the Chinese market. Chinese mobile phone brands dominate the main shares of the world's largest two markets, which is an extremely important industrial achievement. In 2023, China exported 440,000 electric two-wheelers to India, gaining a certain market share locally, building a solid market foundation.
Just look at how ordinary Chinese people live; India can introduce some products accordingly, and there is great potential for economic development, "lying flat and winning" is absolutely possible. But India needs to recognize reality, and it is best to engage in friendly economic and trade exchanges with China, not losing rationality due to jealousy. Even if the relationship is not that friendly, as long as the style is not too恶劣, leaving some room for profit, Chinese enterprises will help develop India's large market, which is a win-win situation. A trade surplus of tens of billions of dollars annually for our enterprises is a reasonably sized market, and we can look forward to even more.
This Indian air battle loss against Pakistan helps the upper echelons of India recognize reality and stop fantasizing about direct confrontation with China, possibly accepting China's proposal of prioritizing economic trade principles. From this perspective, India's "idealistic winning theory" is a very good tool; it wins greatly in propaganda while also benefiting from misfortune, guiding toward the correct economic and trade development direction.
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