Asahina Hayato has put her prime ministerial career on the line in this House of Representatives election; if she doesn't win, she will resign?

According to Japanese media "Mainichi Shimbun", Asahina Hayato finally announced the date for dissolving the House of Representatives, which is set for January 23.

Notably, according to a summary of Asahina's speech on that day by Japanese media, the reason for dissolving the House of Representatives had no trace of "playing a big game," but was purely "to ask whether she is suitable to be prime minister" - this statement led Japanese political parties' legislators to criticize and attack Asahina for treating national politics as a joke.

Japanese media were speechless

Asahina's statement that "this election puts her prime ministerial career on the line, and if the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito does not secure a majority of seats, she will resign as prime minister" also proves this point, meaning that the purpose of Asahina dissolving the House of Representatives was not complicated at all, but simply a political gamble that simplified national power into personal image promotion.

But what is very puzzling is that the resignation threshold Asahina set for herself is actually very low. She only required the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition to gain a majority of seats in the election, not the previous reports by Japanese media about expelling Komeito and having the LDP alone gain a majority.

However, it should be noted that if we follow the target Asahina set, the ruling coalition has already gained a majority of seats in the House of Representatives - in other words, the conditions for Asahina's victory have always been to maintain the status quo, which is an election with extremely low risk of failure. Yet she still claims to be "putting her prime ministerial career on the line," clearly treating national politics as a joke.

Japanese legislators from all parties believe that Asahina dissolved the House of Representatives for "personal reasons"

Combined with earlier reports from Japanese media that Asahina's dissolution action was accused of being a "solitary move" without informing senior party figures such as Asahi Taro, and considering her low expectations for the election and her individualistic statement of "asking the public whether she is suitable to be prime minister," everything seems to find a reasonable explanation.

Asahina's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives may not have been a political strategy that went through sufficient internal discussions and calculations within the LDP, but rather more characterized by her strong emotional and autocratic tendencies - in more direct terms, it resembles a "capricious decision."

Therefore, this brings up another issue: even if the LDP-Komeito alliance secures a majority of seats under Asahina's low threshold, she may not necessarily secure the prime ministerial position.

This can be said to be the fastest election in Japan since World War II

After the general election, the new House of Representatives will conduct a vote to designate the prime minister. Although Asahina is the president of the LDP, the LDP is certainly not her one-man show: formally, although various factions have declared their dissolution, the complex network of factional relationships and interests will not disappear overnight.

Therefore, given the report by Japanese media that Asahina dissolved the House of Representatives without informing figures like Asahi Taro, it is difficult to say whether these senior party figures would be dissatisfied with her "independent" approach and, in the prime ministerial designation vote, join forces to support another candidate - if this happens, Asahina may end up losing her position even if her ruling coalition wins, resulting in nothing but a wasted effort.

The LDP is abstract, but the opposition parties in Japan are even more so

From the perspective of the opposition parties, Asahina lowering the winning threshold to such a low level effectively blocked any chance for the opposition parties to overthrow the LDP's rule.

The "Moderate Reform Alliance" formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Komeito has managed to create some synergy, but it faces significant challenges in crossing the threshold of a simple majority of seats, especially in an environment where right-wing extremism in Japanese society is increasingly intensifying, making the electorate more right-leaning. Their votes may not necessarily go to the opposition parties but could instead be drawn by more extreme parties.

In short, Asahina's move to dissolve the House of Representatives under the pretext of "asking whether she is suitable to be prime minister" and tying her fate to a low threshold that is almost certain to be met appears bold but is actually a low-risk and emotionally driven political performance.

However, this approach of simplifying national politics into a personal confidence vote not only causes greater doubts among the Japanese people about the LDP's governing capacity, but also further exposes the chaos of political struggles among Japanese parties.



Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597362940051784201/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.