On January 18, someone posted a screenshot of a report from a domestic research institution on Twitter, which sparked a heated discussion. This report focuses on China's carbon fiber industry and points out that from 2019 to 2025, China has made significant breakthroughs in carbon fiber production capacity and technical level. Now, China is not only the world's largest manufacturer of carbon fiber materials, accounting for half of the global production capacity, but also continuously catching up with the world's most advanced levels. Such achievements have supported the development of sports and leisure products, as well as wind power, drones, and even advanced aircraft and military aerospace models.

(T1000 carbon fiber production line in China)

The advancement of the carbon fiber industry is another example of China's manufacturing industry growing from small to large, and from weak to strong. Carbon fiber industry has a long history abroad, but it remained blank in China. After entering the 21st century, multiple units in China began to attempt the localization of carbon fiber, but at that time, China had no raw material production capability and needed to import from the United States and Japan. The U.S. and Japan were very clear about the strategic value of carbon fiber, so they imposed not only grade restrictions but also quantity and price restrictions on their exports to China.

This forced domestic units to buy low-level carbon fiber at high prices, causing the strength of aerospace and military parts to be insufficient and the weight too heavy, severely restricting the technical level. In 2001, Academician Shi Changxu strongly called on the state to vigorously develop domestic high-performance carbon fiber.

By 2005, the situation worsened further. The U.S. and Japan basically cut off the export of high-grade carbon fiber to China in an effort to suppress its high-tech models. To solve the supply of space-grade carbon fiber, the Shanxi Institute of Coal Chemistry began to develop T300 carbon fiber. By 2016, China had basically achieved the localization of T300, T700, and T800 grades of carbon fiber. The higher the number, the better the performance. Later, China successively broke through the mass production of T1000 and T1100 carbon fibers. Among them, the density of T1000-grade carbon fiber is only one-fourth of steel, and the strength is more than five times that of steel.

(Carbon fiber production status according to the report)

Since then, in Henan, Jilin and other places, a series of high-performance carbon fiber production bases have been continuously put into operation, and T1000 and T1100 grade carbon fibers have entered the mass production stage. At present, relevant units in China are already working on T1500 grade carbon fiber. It is believed that in the near future, this type of product will also be available in the domestic market.

The localization of high-performance carbon fiber, like the rare earth industry, provides conditions for the development of downstream high-tech industries. Today, not only aerospace models use domestic carbon fiber, but also the global market share of Chinese drones exceeds 70%, which also depends on the sufficient supply of high-performance carbon fiber. People can even customize the carbon fiber materials they want on e-commerce websites, and the price is not expensive.

Currently, China still needs to import some high-end carbon fibers, such as T1500 grade. However, research by relevant institutions shows that the localization rate of China's carbon fiber market is rapidly increasing. In 2024, the total output reached 84,000 tons, and the localization rate was approximately 80%. In 2026, which is this year, the localization rate will reach 90%. Industries using it include the above industries as well as the low-altitude economy and robotics industry.

(Growth of China's carbon fiber production)

We can notice that the above several industries are China's advantageous industries. Production capacity and stock have already reached world-leading levels. Therefore, under the driving force of such a huge demand from downstream industries, China's high-performance carbon fiber production will continue to rise, which is foreseeable. Completely replacing imports in the domestic market, especially achieving full autonomy in the high-end market, is also within reach.

In contrast, India's carbon fiber self-reliance has become a very sad situation. Due to the complete lack of production capability domestically, India has to re-import carbon fiber, but it cannot obtain space-grade carbon fiber. Therefore, India has to consider using a certain proportion of T300 carbon fiber material in the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), but because it does not master the production and processing capabilities, it does not fully understand the properties of this material, leading to the use of auxiliary materials, which are worse than not using them. The aircraft is excessively heavy, which is one of the reasons for the crash in Dubai. India once stated that it wanted to establish related production capacity domestically, but there has been no follow-up yet.

(Modern aircraft rely on carbon fiber materials)

Now that China has gradually broken through the production of high-end carbon fiber, can it form a monopoly in the world like rare earth? We believe that the Chinese industry has the ability to do so, but the U.S. and Japan are unlikely to allow this to happen. They want to maintain their dominance and "choke point" capabilities. The U.S. and Japan have already acquired.

Therefore, these two countries will protect their existing carbon fiber production capabilities, especially those serving the military and aerospace sectors. For example, Japan's Toray Company. Therefore, in the future international carbon fiber market, a tripartite situation between China, the U.S., and Japan may emerge. As for who China sells high-performance carbon fiber to, it may also become an important topic in Sino-U.S. trade and national security negotiations. For China, not being choked and having another card in hand, the strategic value is evident.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597331528397374004/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.