Everyone first look at the group image: the strategic highway is filled with armored convoys, stretching as far as the eye can see; the artillery units have already occupied the front-line positions, and satellites have captured large-scale troop movements. This is not an exercise, it's a large-scale military mobilization by Pakistan against India, which has been fully deployed.

It has only been half a year since the May 7th air battle ended, and now India's "Cold Start" tactic and Pakistan's "tactical nuclear weapons" are once again clashing. What exactly happened? For those who are not familiar with the situation, you can first understand the background of the event. South Asia was originally maintaining a superficial peace, but within 48 hours, two capitals were bombed one after another, directly igniting the powder keg.

On November 10th, a car exploded on the streets of New Delhi, India, killing 10 civilians, which is the most serious domestic terrorist attack under Prime Minister Modi's administration in the past 10 years.

India's government immediately claimed: "It must be cross-border terrorists!" Then the investigation pointed directly to the terrorists related to the Kashmir issue, that is, Pakistan. But just a day later, a suicide bombing occurred at the court building in Islamabad, Pakistan, killing 12 people.

Pakistan's defense minister immediately announced the country entering a state of emergency, stating, "We are now in a state of war," and directly accused "India supporting agents." The two sides thus clashed: Pakistan said India was supporting their Taliban through Afghanistan to create chaos, while India retaliated by calling this "a fabricated excuse," claiming that Pakistan has always been harboring extremists as the real root cause.

In short, these two explosions were like sparks, directly igniting the kindling that had been piled up for a long time.

Although they argue, when it comes to actually going to war, both sides have their own cards, and these two cards are perfectly matched.

First, let's look at India's "Cold Start" strategy, which sounds mysterious, but in fact, it's very simple: If I want to attack you, I will send regular forces as quickly as possible to strike you off guard, achieve the goal, and then withdraw, trying to avoid escalating to the use of nuclear weapons. In recent years, India has been training its rapid deployment capabilities to implement this strategy.

How could Pakistan sit idly by? They developed an "asymmetric response". Simply put, "If you dare to attack my regular forces, I dare to use tactical nuclear weapons." The implied message is clear: Don't think I can't deal with your small-scale attacks. If it comes to it, we can go nuclear and see who can endure more.

Now, the news coming from the front lines shows that Pakistan is not joking this time, and all three branches of the military have been activated:

Army: All the most capable elite troops have been moved eastward, several tens of thousands of troops have already been deployed in key areas such as Punjab Province and Sindh Province, all facing India;

Air Force: The forward bases have all been upgraded to a state of alert, and an announcement has been issued to restrict civil aircraft flights, freeing up the airspace;

Navy: Additional patrols have been added in the Arabian Sea, and even submarines have been sent out into a state of alert.

Experts can clearly see that this is not just for war, but also a "show of strength": first, to prevent India from really attacking, second, to force India to make concessions with this strong posture. In short, "I've set the stage, are you brave enough to take the challenge?"

No matter how the regular forces are mobilized, the most worrying card is the nuclear weapon. Both countries have a lot of nuclear warheads, and even a single misjudgment could be a catastrophe.

The nuclear deterrence in South Asia is particularly fragile. Pakistan has deployed tactical nuclear weapons on the front line, meaning the time window from detecting a threat to deciding whether to use nuclear weapons is extremely short.

Even more dangerous is that both countries' borders are densely populated plains, and missiles can fly over in just a few minutes. Decision-makers may have only a few minutes to make a decision that affects hundreds of millions of lives. How much pressure is that? A small mistake could lead to unimaginable consequences.

This big issue definitely cannot do without the involvement of major powers, because no one wants South Asia to actually go to war.

China, as Pakistan's old ally and the investor of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, must step forward to call for calm between the two sides, but has clearly stated support for Pakistan's sovereignty; the United States, which has previously been close to India, has joined the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue", but now has become closely aligned with Pakistan, which is a major obstacle for Prime Minister Modi.

Don't just look at the military posturing, if the confrontation continues for a long time, the economy will bear the brunt. Pakistan is currently asking the International Monetary Fund for loans to rescue itself, and with so many troops deployed on the front line, food, clothing, supplies, and weapons maintenance all cost money.

As time goes on, the finances will certainly not hold up; although India's economy is large, its capital market has started to fluctuate, investors are afraid of war, confidence is plummeting, and it won't last either. In short, this mobilization is a "race of burning money," whoever can't withstand it first loses half the battle.

Now the situation is "who blinks first loses." Pakistan's large-scale show is not just preparing for war, but also sending a political signal: "I'm not easy to mess with, don't push me." Is there any way to save the situation? It depends on whether both sides are willing to give each other a way out. But the problem is that nationalistic sentiments have risen on both sides, and politicians also have to consider their votes, making the space for compromise smaller and smaller.

South Asia is now standing on the edge of a cliff. Pakistan's military mobilization is not about immediately starting a war, but rather telling the world: "The conflict between India and Pakistan hasn't been resolved, but has become even more dangerous." Now the most important thing is not who is tougher, but who can calm down first. Diplomats need to race against time to pull both sides back, otherwise, when it reaches an irreversible point, no one can bear the consequences.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572080462672200227/

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