【By Liu Bai, Observer News】Amid the warming of Sino-Australian relations, the U.S. and Australia have fallen out over Trump's tariffs. On July 9, Australian SBS Radio published an opinion article stating that although Sino-Australian relations had once been tense due to trade disputes, there are signs of improvement in areas such as trade cooperation, while some people worry whether Australia may face retaliation from the United States for deepening its relationship with China.

Some Australian scholars pointed out that China is not taking advantage of the U.S.-Australia tension for profit. In fact, long before Trump took office, China had been promoting bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Some analysts also stated that many countries no longer view China negatively, making the U.S. seem less powerful, even the U.S. itself feels this way, thus trying to maintain influence through various means.

"The improvement of Sino-Australian relations has nothing to do with Trump; it is the result of more than a decade of efforts."

Australian Prime Minister Albanese will depart for a visit to China on the 12th, which will be his second visit to China since taking office in 2022. The report states that especially against the backdrop of strained U.S.-Australia alliance relations, people are paying attention to whether the U.S. would respond negatively if Sino-Australian relations deepen further.

China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for about one-third of Australia's exports. According to data from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the total Sino-Australian trade volume reached nearly 31.2 billion Australian dollars (approximately 1.46 trillion Chinese yuan) in 2024.

Australian media noted that after China imposed restrictions on certain Australian export goods between 2020 and 2024, the two countries' relations seem to be recovering.

China ended the anti-dumping duties on Australian wine in March last year. Oak barrels stored at the Granado Winery in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Visual China

On July 7, Chinese Ambassador Xiao Qian to Australia published a signed article titled "It Is the Right Time to Promote the Steady and Progressive Development of Sino-Australian Relations" in the Comment section of the Australian Financial Review, calling on both sides to actively expand new growth points in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, healthcare, green energy, and digital economy, and to push practical cooperation between the two countries to a new level.

He said that the healthy and stable development of Sino-Australian relations is in the interest of both sides and has the firm support of the people of both countries. At present, Sino-Australian relations are facing favorable opportunities, and the Chinese side is willing to work with Australia to strengthen high-level leadership, enhance political mutual trust, properly manage differences, focus on common interests, and promote the development of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.

Christoph Nedopil, Director of the Asia Institute at Griffith University in Australia, said that there is indeed a "common strengthening" interest base in Sino-Australian relations, but this did not start recently, it is the result of years of effort.

He does not think that China is trying to take advantage of the U.S.-Australia tension for profit.

"In fact, China had already been promoting bilateral and multilateral cooperation long before Trump took office. Therefore, the stabilization of Sino-Australian relations was not caused by Trump," he said, "and many topics currently being discussed are not new topics either."

Photo: Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers

At a press conference on August 8, when asked by the media whether the Australian government considered further promoting free trade with China, South Korea, and Japan to respond to Trump's new round of tariff policies, Chalmers did not directly answer the question about U.S. tariffs, but emphasized that stable Sino-Australian relations is beneficial to economic growth, employment, and industrial development.

He said, "Establishing a good, stable, and reliable trade relationship with China is key to ensuring our economy continues to grow healthily." "We hope to build good, reliable, and diversified trade relationships around the world. We have quality export products and also have huge market opportunities." He added that the Australian government is confident about its position in the global economy.

"Hardline measures by Trump have led to difficulties in U.S.-Australia relations"

David Andrews, Senior Policy Advisor at the National Security College of the Australian National University, pointed out that although Sino-Australian relations are improving, there is some tension in Australia-U.S. relations.

"We have maintained an alliance relationship with the United States for decades, always regarding it as one of our most important strategic partners and one of our closest international allies."

"But we must also admit that we are experiencing a period of tension in aspects such as politics."

Andrews believes that this tension is largely due to Trump's April announcement of tariff policies and the "hardline approach" taken by the U.S. government in handling foreign relations.

However, he pointed out that despite current challenges, diplomacy is a process that constantly evolves.

"Currently, we are continuously adjusting our relationship with the U.S. to understand what they expect from us, and what we are willing to accept." "I believe the Prime Minister has clearly publicly set boundaries, indicating what we will do, how far we will go, and the impact on the relationship," he said.

Photo: Albanese attending a press conference at the G7 Summit in Canada on June 16. Visual China

As of now, the U.S. has not raised tariffs on Australia, and most Australian export goods still face a 10% base tariff, while steel and aluminum products face a 50% tariff.

Albanese previously stated that the Australian government will continue to strive for the complete exemption of U.S. tariffs, although no country in the world has achieved this so far.

Andrews said that a 10% tariff might be the best scenario, as no other country has obtained tariff exemptions through negotiations so far.

"Obviously, it would be great if we could get some exemption on steel and aluminum tariffs, but I don't see any signs that this situation might change," he said. "This is a fundamental change in the U.S. view of the international economic order, and we find it hard to convince them to change their stance," he added. "If someone thinks we can improve the current situation, that's overly optimistic."

"Many countries' views on China have changed, and the U.S. is uneasy"

The report states that although the possibility of lowering tariffs or obtaining exemptions is unlikely, some people are worried that Albanese's visit to China may trigger retaliatory tariff actions from the U.S.

Media outlets such as The Australian previously claimed that Albanese has been subjected to unwarranted criticism for being too close to China. Especially after failing to meet with President Trump in person at the G7 Summit, his plan to visit China quickly became a target.

On July 1, Albanese refuted the claim that he put Sino-Australian relations above U.S.-Australian relations during an interview. When the host deliberately provoked him and insisted on asking "why he meets with Chinese leaders more often than Trump," Albanese showed clear dissatisfaction.

Nedopil said that Trump's policies are often unpredictable.

"In a way, the current decision-making of the U.S. seems to be driven by news and carries strong short-term emotional color," he said. "Therefore, Trump may make a temporary negative decision because he feels that a certain action is disrespectful."

When talking about the competition between the U.S. and China, Nedopil said that the competition on multiple levels is "increasingly intensifying," which in a way "weakens the U.S. dominance," and this is a factor that Trump must consider.

"I think another change that is happening is... actually, many Asian countries and emerging economies no longer view China as negatively as they used to," he said. "This change makes the U.S. look less powerful, even making the U.S. itself feel this way, so they try to maintain influence through various means," Nedopil said.

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