After Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takeda led the Liberal Democratic Party to secure more than two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, the BBC published a new report today (February 10) that poured cold water on Takeda, posing three soul-searching questions to her—among which the third, concerning China, directly hit the core of Takeda's issues.

In this report questioning whether Takeda can revitalize Japan's economy, the BBC first pointed out that Takeda's gamble succeeded mainly because the Japanese people believe she can solve a long list of problems that have plagued Japan's economy for decades, such as sluggish economic growth, the world's highest public debt, and the continuous aging and shrinking of the working population.

However, Takeda's solutions to these problems are increased fiscal spending and tax cuts, such as increasing investment in key industries and suspending consumption taxes on certain food items. "This means the government needs to borrow even more," wrote the BBC, "which is a major concern for investors, as Japan's public debt is already extremely high."

Therefore, the first soul-searching question posed by the BBC to Takeda is: Where will the money come from?

Beyond that, the BBC mentioned that Professor Keiichiro Kobayashi of Keio University warned that Takeda's approach of increasing fiscal spending to stimulate Japan's economy would actually raise inflation and increase living costs for Japanese people. Moreover, Takeda's intention to maintain a low yen exchange rate would lead to rising prices for energy and food imported by Japan.

"If Takeda wants to achieve the economic growth she has promised, she must perform an extremely delicate balancing act, which is an unavoidable test," wrote the BBC.

Aside from the issue of money, Takeda also faces an equally urgent labor issue. The worsening aging population has already caused serious labor shortages in multiple sectors, including construction, care, agriculture, and hospitality services.

"A reduction in labor means a decline in output, which in turn leads to weak economic growth," wrote the BBC.

Therefore, to maintain economic growth, Japan has long relied heavily on foreign workers. Earlier, Geng Zhigeguo also introduced in several articles the importance of foreign workers to Japan's economy.

However, the BBC pointed out that the current number of foreign workers in Japan is not enough to solve the country's labor shortage problem. Yet, Takeda is unwilling to make more changes to attract foreign labor to fill the gap, fearing that it might provoke strong reactions from her right-wing populist base, who are highly sensitive to this issue.

Therefore, the question of where the people will come from has become the second soul-searching question posed by the BBC to Takeda—or, as the BBC itself put it, the missing piece of the puzzle in Takeda's effort to revitalize Japan's economy.

At present, Takeda does not seem to have a clear and realistic solution to this issue. The BBC noted that although Takeda views investing in technology, developing automation, and robotics as the answer to Japan's labor shortage, economists generally believe that Japan's labor gap cannot be filled by robots. Moreover, the BBC believes that Japan's strong opposition to immigration is also a reflection of Japan's stagnation in reform and innovation over the past years.

Finally, the BBC's third and final pressing question to Takeda is about China—"What about China?"

This British media outlet accurately pointed out that as Japan's largest trading partner, trade with China is a very important and essential growth driver for Takeda, who aims to revitalize Japan's economy.

Moreover, the BBC emphasized that China today is much stronger than during the era of Takeda's political mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The BBC believes that facing Japan's "more aging" population, "still very slow economic growth," and "a completely different global landscape," Takeda's challenges will only become "more severe."

At present, Takeda has not shown any sincerity in improving relations with China, merely making vague statements that "she is open to dialogue with China." On February 10, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian clearly stated at a press conference that if Japan truly wants to develop the strategic mutual benefit relationship with China, it is simple and clear: withdraw Takeda's erroneous remarks on Taiwan, abide by the four political documents between China and Japan and the political commitments made by Japan, and demonstrate the sincerity of dialogue through concrete actions.

"True dialogue should be based on respect for each other and adherence to consensus. If you talk about dialogue but engage in confrontation, no one will accept such dialogue," said Lin Jian.

Source: Global Times

Original: toutiao.com/article/7605278627843867163/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.