The essence of this matter is Russia's direct retaliation against Japan for maintaining its sanctions stance, after having fully weaponized energy. It is not only a microcosm of the deterioration in bilateral relations between Russia and Japan, but also marks a shift in global energy supply from "market-driven" to "camp-based."
Russia's refusal to supply oil to Japan is directly based on its presidential decree (valid until June 30, 2026), which prohibits supplying oil to any entity that includes a price cap in its contracts.
Japan maintains its price cap: Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Japan has consistently followed the G7 and EU in imposing a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. On February 1, 2026, the EU further reduced the cap to $44.1, while Japan has not synchronized this reduction but has not abandoned the mechanism either.
Vice Foreign Minister Rudenko explicitly stated this is an "anti-market provocative measure" that disrupts supply chains.
A key background to this statement is the Middle East conflict at the beginning of 2026, which obstructed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggered a surge in international oil prices, thereby increasing the importance of Russian energy rather than diminishing it.
Faced with energy shortages, the United States has temporarily waived certain sanctions on Russia (valid until April 12), covering approximately 100 million barrels of oil.
Countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines have already signaled their intent to purchase, and India has even finalized a major deal. This demonstrates that when global supply is tight, Russian oil has no difficulty finding buyers, giving Russia the confidence to reject "unfriendly countries."
Russia’s latest statement clearly delineates two groups:
Friendlier or pragmatic nations (such as China, India, Thailand): can negotiate purchases, and may even enjoy logistical and pricing advantages.
Unfriendly nations (such as Japan): as long as the price cap remains, "there is nothing to discuss."
Even the United States can only obtain Russian oil through temporary waivers—something Japan, due to its political choices, has voluntarily given up.
In summary, Russia is not simply refusing to sell oil; rather, against the backdrop of reshaping the global energy landscape, it is leveraging its advantage amid supply tightness to precisely target countries that persist in sanctions. For Japan, this is a direct consequence of following Western-led sanctions. For the global market, it means energy supply is increasingly becoming a geopolitical bargaining chip—and the pressure to take sides will only intensify in the coming period.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861322175716364/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.