South Korean media: If a toll is imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will surge… Iran could earn $100 billion annually
¬ $2 million per ship — what’s next for the global economy?
The Iranian parliament approved the management plan for toll collection at the Strait of Hormuz on the 30th local time, meaning it will formally take control of this vital gateway through which about 20% of the world’s crude oil passes, turning it into a "cash cow." If implemented, the plan is expected to inflict major damage on the global economy. There are concerns that South Korean refining companies will inevitably bear several trillion won in additional costs, triggering sharp increases in domestic fuel prices and inflation across entire industries.
The management plan explicitly bans all vessels with U.S. and Israeli nationality or ownership from passing through. It also decides to restrict ships from countries that impose unilateral sanctions against Iran from approaching the strait; furthermore, it specifies that tolls will be collected in the national currency, rial (rial).
Irani semi-official Tasnim News Agency estimates that toll collection could generate over $100 billion (approximately 150 trillion KRW) in annual revenue. Before the war, an average of 140 ships passed through the strait daily. At a toll of $2 million (about 3 billion KRW) per vessel, this would amount to more than 20% of Iran's GDP in 2024. If all approximately 3,200 commercial vessels currently trapped in the Gulf region were released at once, Iran would immediately receive $640 million.
South Korea imports about 700 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil annually through the Strait of Hormuz, requiring at least 350 oil tankers to pass through each year. The country’s four major refineries are expected to bear around $700 million (about 1.5 trillion KRW) in annual fees. Additional tolls for liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport are projected to add another $200 million (about 300 billion KRW). Energy industry experts said: "The tolls are likely to be fully reflected in domestic gasoline and diesel prices." Experts warn this could ultimately trigger a chain reaction of price hikes across entire industries.
The management plan has not yet become formal law and still needs to go through full parliamentary voting, review by the Constitutional Guardian Council, and presidential signature. However, observers believe that since Iran has already been unofficially collecting tolls at the Strait of Hormuz, formal legalization is merely a matter of time.
Iran justifies its proposal using the logic that the Suez Canal and Panama Canal also charge tolls. In fact, Egypt collects about $800 million monthly from the Suez Canal. But experts point out that the Strait of Hormuz is a natural strait, not an artificial canal, and thus cannot be subject to the same rationale. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by 168 countries, guarantees freedom of passage through international straits and explicitly prohibits tolls. James Kraska, professor at the U.S. Naval War College, stated: "International law nowhere allows coastal states to charge tolls on international straits."
Yet some argue that under current circumstances, discussing international law is nearly meaningless, as Iran claims that preemptive attacks by the U.S. and Israel themselves constitute violations of international law. Moreover, there are speculations that Iran might repackage the tolls indirectly as "payment for security services provided."
It is reported that Iran will also raise the issue of tolls during ceasefire negotiations. Some mediators, including Pakistan, have already conveyed the idea of imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz to the White House. On the 30th, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera: "Not only us, but the entire world cannot accept one country occupying international waters and claiming them as its own." Karen Yang, senior research fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said: "GCC members such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman will not accept tolls being imposed."
Yet within the international community, there is concern that Donald Trump may declare a "self-initiated ceasefire" without properly resolving this issue. On the 30th, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported: "Trump signaled to his advisers that he was willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked." This report reflects the same logic. Trump’s plan is to use the weakening of Iran’s navy and missile capabilities as a pretext to scale down operations, then apply diplomatic pressure on Iran to open the Strait; however, if negotiations fail, he would effectively say, 'You figure it out,' shifting responsibility to Europe and Gulf allies. In reality, as the world’s largest oil producer, the U.S. relies on Middle Eastern oil for less than 10% of its total energy supply. Trump recently stated: "The U.S. doesn’t need oil from the Strait of Hormuz."
Dina Esfandiari, Chief Analyst for Bloomberg Economics in the Middle East, said: "Iran probably didn’t expect the strategic leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to be so effective. The lesson Iran has learned from this conflict is that holding the global economy hostage is cheaper and easier than imagined."
Source: Chosun Ilbo
Original: toutiao.com/article/1861240278588419/
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