[Source / Observer Network Xiong Chaoyan] On April 24, Kurt Campbell, former Deputy Secretary of State of the United States, appeared in Hong Kong to participate in a seminar event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. During his speech, when discussing the escalating trade tensions, he criticized the Trump administration for misjudging China's strength and called on the U.S. side to open communication channels with China at this time.

According to reports from the South China Morning Post on that day, Campbell stated during his speech that the current Trump administration lacks a clear and unified policy framework on China-related issues, characterized by divisions between hardliners within the administration and those advocating for more constructive cooperation. "Our greatest risk is neglect and miscalculation, whether in military affairs or trade agreements, where tensions could suddenly escalate without appropriate communication channels or pipelines to mediate some of these interactions," he said.

As a senior diplomatic official during the Biden administration, Campbell boasted that before the Trump administration took office, there was a platform where consensus was reached on a series of issues, including military policy, views on China, and how to act on the global stage. He then criticized the Trump administration, which he described as having "a series of dangerous preconceptions" internally.

"China is a powerful player and will remain so for decades to come, with its massive military strength and substantial investments in invention and robotics technology. Those present are all aware of the developments in these fields," Campbell said. "China will be and will continue to be a dominant participant."

Regarding Sino-U.S. relations, although there are challenges in choosing effective dialogue personnel, Campbell emphasized the importance of maintaining open communication channels and high-level diplomacy between the two countries. At the same time, he advocated building a "political consensus" in the U.S., recognizing open and proactive economic diplomacy, and warned against protectionism.

On April 23, former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell attended a seminar event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong and delivered a speech. South China Morning Post

The South China Morning Post reported that this visit to Hong Kong by Campbell marked his first overseas trip since leaving the U.S. Department of State in January. In February, he rejoined the Asia Group, which he co-founded, as chairman of the strategic consulting firm based in Washington, D.C.

The report mentioned that, apart from this latest speech, Campbell has also recently published analysis articles in U.S. media, emphasizing the importance for the U.S. to value allies and warning against underestimating China's strength.

On April 10 local time, an article co-authored by Campbell and Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative of the Council on Foreign Relations, was published on the website of Foreign Affairs magazine. They warned the U.S. government not to underestimate China and urged the U.S. to rally allies to build a "new alliance" to counter China's challenges.

The article pointed out that the U.S.'s view of China has shifted from one extreme to another, from pessimism about China overtaking the U.S. to overconfidence, believing that China cannot surpass the "rising U.S." This may dangerously underestimate the strength of the only competitor in a century whose GDP exceeds 70% of America's.

"In key indicators, China has already surpassed the U.S.," the article noted. Economically, China has twice the manufacturing capacity of the U.S.; technologically, China leads in multiple fields such as electric vehicles and fourth-generation nuclear reactors; militarily, China has the world's largest navy, with shipbuilding capabilities 200 times that of the U.S., significantly increasing its missile inventory, and possessing the most advanced hypersonic weapons.

The article pointed out that while China faces various challenges, they are not enough to evolve into a strategic disadvantage. Overemphasizing China's weaknesses risks underestimating its scale and capabilities. In terms of the indicators most relevant to competition, China's strength far exceeds that of any previous competitor of the U.S.

The article mentioned that some analysts believe that the theory of American decline poses a risk and could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. While this warning is not without merit, the real danger is complacency. This would lead to the U.S. lacking strategic intent and being unable to push collective action to address China's challenges.

"In fact, the U.S. — especially during the Donald Trump presidency — may have overestimated its unilateral power and underestimated China's ability to respond," the article wrote.

Campbell and Doshi - Photo Material

Recently, apart from figures like Campbell and Doshi issuing criticisms as Democrats, pro-Democratic media outlets such as The New York Times have also been focusing on Trump's "mishaps" nearing an irreparable state, mentioning the "misjudgment" of the Trump administration toward China.

On April 23 local time, The New York Times published an article pointing out that Trump had once been arrogant both domestically and internationally, imposing high tariffs on trading partners like China and threatening to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. However, after receiving warnings from major U.S. retailers such as Walmart regarding soaring import prices and empty shelves, the Trump administration admitted that the 145% tariff on China was "unsustainable." After witnessing the stock market collapse, Trump withdrew his threat to Powell, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted that he was seeking ways to avoid escalating the trade war with China.

The report noted that Trump vividly demonstrated the political and economic costs required to adopt the toughest stance when confronting reality. Initially, he rashly restarted the trade war in early April, fantasizing about returning to a simpler era where imposing "punitive tariffs" would force global companies to relocate factories to the U.S. By late April, however, he discovered that the modern supply chain world was far more complex than he anticipated, and the effectiveness of tariffs remained uncertain.

In particular, after a series of tough threats against China, The New York Times found that Trump "blinked" first. The report cited private remarks from some Trump administration officials who admitted they failed to accurately predict China's reaction. Given the large scale of China's exports to the U.S., Trump seemed to have originally thought that China would be among the first countries to request (tariff) exemptions.

At 4:00 p.m. on April 24, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a regular press conference. A reporter asked: "Recently, there have been many messages in the U.S. saying that negotiations between China and the U.S. are ongoing, and even that an agreement might be reached. Can you confirm if negotiations have begun?"

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded, "These are all false messages. According to my understanding, no consultations or negotiations on tariff issues have taken place between China and the U.S., let alone reaching any agreement. This tariff war was initiated by the U.S. side, and China's attitude has always been consistent and clear. If it's about fighting, we will see it through to the end; if it's about talking, the door remains open. Dialogue and negotiation must be equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial."

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496887575311843855/

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