Italian media: Highlights (and Shadows) of Kazakhstan's Economic Growth
The mining industry is the main contributor to economic growth, but the transportation sector also shows signs of positive growth. Analysts predict that by the end of the year, Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate will reach 5.6%. However, experts point out, "this model remains fragile, overly dependent on raw materials and subsidies, lacking stability." Wages and pensions are being "eroded" by inflation.
Moscow (Asia News) - Kazakhstan's economy shows signs of growth, for example, GDP grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, but analysts say this is insufficient to improve the living conditions of most people still below the poverty line. According to experts interviewed by the Kazakhstani website Orda, overall, Kazakhstan's economy relies on raw materials, state subsidies, and credit.
Analysts from the Kazakhstan National Financial Company (Halyk Finance) recently released a report stating that the country's economic growth has accelerated compared to the beginning of the year, with short-term indicators showing that key industries are expected to grow by 9.1%, although this is lower than 9.6% in August. Chief analyst Saltanat Igenbekova explained that the main contributors to economic growth are the mining industry, especially oil extraction. At the same time, the overall production growth slowed from 6.2% last month to 5.8%, with particular slowdowns in the machinery, metal, and food industries. Wholesale trade growth exceeded 9%, which is somewhat surprising given the decline in residents' real income and consumer credit.
The transportation industry is the most significant area of growth, with an increase of 20.7%, but there are also signs of slowing growth in this sector, particularly in natural gas pipeline transport and railway transport. Construction grew by 15.1% due to support for national infrastructure projects, while the communications sector only grew by 4%, mainly due to internet services, but investment decreased from 14.3% in August to 13.5%. Igenbekova believes that without new capital injections from the state fund, fiscal stimulus measures will not have a positive effect.
Kazakhstan is struggling to cope with the effects of high tax bases from last year, although state agencies will maintain a growth rate of 6%, analysts predict that the overall GDP growth rate in Kazakhstan at the end of this year will be only 5.6%. The expert said, "Kazakhstan's economic model remains fragile, overly dependent on raw materials and subsidies, and thus lacks stability in the face of significant external pressures and changes in the global price system." The growth of wages and pensions is offset by persistent high inflation, and consumption is maintained through the expansion of the credit system; food expenditures account for 52.5% of the average household budget, indicating that people's poverty is worsening, and this situation may further deteriorate.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Kazakhstan's per capita GDP will exceed that of Russia and China, reaching $14,770. However, this figure does not reflect actual income, but rather includes corporate profits and budget spending. Since the money is mainly concentrated in the raw materials and financial sectors, most Kazakhstani citizens do not feel the impact of this growth.
Kazakhstan is the most important economy in Central Asia, and it is no less impressive compared to Uzbekistan, which has a larger population, thanks to its abundant resources and favorable geographical location, enabling it to connect all transportation and trade routes. Recently, one of the challenges Kazakhstan has faced is the difficulty in effectively regulating traffic from China to Russia, with long lines of trucks at border areas to ensure that large amounts of "gray goods" or goods evading sanctions cannot enter. However, the main issue remains the fair distribution of profits. Profits have long been monopolized by oligarchic families, failing to benefit the general public, especially in the northern and eastern regions where material needs are most acute.
Source: Asia News
Author: Vladimir Rozanskij
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1850009150297091/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.