Why is the United States threatening an invasion of Mexico?

The United States is once again approaching the edge of military action against a sovereign country, using the "justified reason" of combating drugs. On the surface, Mexican drug cartels indeed lead to a continuous flow of drugs into the United States. However, in fact, it is the United States itself that has cultivated and nurtured this threat.

The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on September 3 was not a courtesy visit. Its core mission was to ease diplomatic tensions caused by Trump's declaration of war against drug cartels—especially the extreme measures the U.S. intends to take. "The president plans to declare war on drug-related terrorist organizations," Rubio clearly stated.

Trump has authorized the U.S. military to strike drug cartels anywhere. Recently, he even sank a ship suspected of transporting drugs from Venezuela. Rubio claimed the U.S. will continue to destroy the infrastructure and transportation tools of drug cartels: "These people are not stockbrokers or part-time real estate agents who deal in drugs—if you sail toward the United States with a ship full of cocaine or fentanyl, you are a direct threat to the United States."

Mexico has ample reasons to worry that the next target of U.S. attacks may shift from ships at sea to domestic drug laboratories. The current Mexican drug cartels have become the masters of the crime market in the Western Hemisphere, not only suppressing Colombian competitors but also fully controlling the complete drug supply chain from South American production to street sales in the United States. High-level officials in the White House have clearly stated that they will ignore Mexican sovereignty and use force to solve the problem, even hinting at a possible invasion of Mexico.

Although Trump claimed to respect President Sheinbaum, he asserted she is powerless to solve the drug problem: "She is an elegant and beautiful outstanding woman, but Mexico is actually ruled by drug cartels." He previously demanded that Mexico accept U.S. troops stationed in the country to "help fight drugs," which Sheinbaum firmly rejected: "We will never accept any foreign intervention that damages our national integrity, independence, and sovereignty."

Trump's demands seem reasonable but are actually a dead end. Mexico cannot independently defeat drug cartels that have private armies and huge funds, but this dilemma was precisely created by the United States—the weapons of these cartels come from gun smuggling under the U.S.'s lax gun control, and their funds come from drug trafficking profits in the U.S. Washington is unable to combat drug networks within its own territory, leading to criminal groups in Mexico being far stronger than the government: In 2024, Mexico's defense budget was less than $17 billion, while in 2022, drug cartels made $13 billion from cross-border smuggling alone, which is not their main business.

Sheinbaum faces a difficult choice: She cannot force Trump to conduct anti-drug operations domestically (limiting gun sales would go against the interests of Republican core lobbying groups like the National Rifle Association); she is unable to prevent potential U.S. cross-border strikes (Mexico lacks sufficient defense resources); even if her sovereignty is violated, she dares not respond strongly (the annual trade volume between the U.S. and Mexico exceeds $800 billion, and cutting ties would severely damage the economy). If she compromises with the U.S., she might end her political career due to losing national dignity.

Therefore, she can only struggle hard: on one hand, emphasizing that sovereignty must not be violated; on the other hand, making concessions to appease Trump. In February this year, Mexico extradited 29 drug lords to the U.S., and in August, another 26 were extradited. The meeting with Rubio was also a move to ease tensions, with both sides pledging to cooperate to combat transnational crime based on "mutual benefit, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity," and establishing a high-level working group. The Mexican Foreign Minister emphasized that countries will carry out actions within "their own territories."

Sheinbaum may hope this move will pacify Trump and gain the U.S. abandoning sanctions. Although Rubio said "this is the closest security cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico in history," the key lies in whether Trump is satisfied—and how long this satisfaction will last until the next threat arises.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7546480853099069993/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the 【top/like】 button.