【Military Second Dimension】Author: Golden Bomber

Recently, the renowned think tank "International Institute for Strategic Studies" released a new report summarizing the astonishing progress China has made in the field of nuclear submarine construction over the past five years.

▲Chinese Navy Nuclear Submarine

The report concluded that China has launched at least 10 nuclear-powered submarines in the past five years, with a total displacement approaching 800,000 tons, even surpassing the total of the past 10 years, and for the first time, the number of launches per year has exceeded that of the United States.

The report provided two conclusions. On one hand, it believes that if this trend continues, the United States may lose its advantage and hegemony in the field of nuclear submarines. On the other hand, this think tank also did not forget to "downplay" the quality of China's nuclear submarines, stating that whether they can truly form strategic or tactical advantages is still uncertain, as this depends on the actual quality of China's nuclear submarines and whether China can break through the First Island Chain to operate in more extensive Pacific waters.

▲Type 094

However, one objective point of the report is that it combined satellite images to roughly accurately analyze China's nuclear submarine construction situation over the past five years. According to the report, 2021 was the starting year of accelerated production capacity for China's nuclear submarines. In 2022, it may have launched 2 submarines, including the first Type 093B. In 2023, it may have launched 3 submarines. In 2024, China continued to launch 3 submarines, possibly including the 7th Type 094 and 2 Type 093B.

This year also marked China's first implementation of the "1+2" production model: one strategic nuclear submarine plus two attack-type nuclear submarines. In 2025, China continued to launch 3-4 submarines, at least including the 8th Type 094 and 2 Type 093.

▲Type 093B

At the same time, the number of nuclear submarines launched by the United States was already insufficient compared to China. Starting from 2021, the United States launched 1-2 Virginia-class nuclear submarines each year, totaling about 7 submarines over five years, with a total displacement of approximately 55,500 tons.

The report analyzed that the main reason for China's rapid progress in nuclear submarine production is due to the rapid expansion of shipyard infrastructure and the overall advantages of the industrial system. Specifically, Bohai Shipbuilding Industry in Huludao underwent a large-scale upgrade between 2019 and 2022, adding a large number of nuclear submarine manufacturing facilities and supporting facilities, which allowed China's nuclear submarine production to enter parallel construction and modular production, significantly improving efficiency.

▲Bohai Shipyard

Additionally, China's basic supporting industrial capacity for nuclear submarine production far exceeds that of the West, with an extremely large number of suppliers, estimated at around 17,000. In contrast, the U.S. nuclear submarine production faces structural problems, first of all, labor shortages and capacity bottlenecks.

According to its own report, the U.S. nuclear submarine production industry has a labor shortage of up to 25% in key positions. Over the past few years, the U.S. has invested billions of dollars in developing the workforce in this area, but the growth of talent has still not kept up with demand.

▲Virginia-class

The report also mentioned that currently, China has 6-9 Type 093A, 7-16 Type 093B, 6-9 Type 094, and 1 Type 095, with the total number of operational nuclear submarines exceeding 20, and some say it has reached as high as 32. Although China's production speed is fast enough, it still cannot match the U.S. in total numbers. The U.S. Navy currently has 66-71 nuclear submarines, at least including 20 Los Angeles-class, 3 Sea Wolf-class, and 26-30 Virginia-class.

As for the Russian Navy, the commonly recognized figure is 25-32 nuclear submarines, including 13-15 Borei-class (Yasen), several old Delta V, and 14-20 Yasen or Akula-class. Many analysts point out that China has actually surpassed Russia in the number of nuclear submarines. However, despite the number dropping to third globally, Russia's nuclear submarines still maintain global deployment capabilities. Conversely, although China's nuclear submarines have exceeded Russia in number and are produced quickly, without breaking through the First Island Chain, their overall operating area remains limited to the South China Sea, which creates possibilities for joint anti-submarine operations by the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The report believes that this obvious geographical constraint is expected to change fundamentally only after Taiwan's return.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7609215998767432233/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.