Why is Takahashi Asako so confident? Mearsheimer hits the nail on the head: she believes Japan can provoke, and China will not retaliate!
Regarding Takahashi Asako's recent aggressive behavior, and why Japan refuses to retract its statements, international relations scholar John Mearsheimer has a sharp comment: "Takahashi Asako clearly believes that Japan can 'walk the line without crossing it' in the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, and that China will not, and cannot, retaliate economically against Japan."
This translates to: Japan severely underestimates China's capability and willingness to counteract, while overestimating the possibility of the United States standing up for it.
However, Takahashi Asako and her supporters seem to have selectively ignored these facts. They are more inclined to believe that: first, the United States will provide comprehensive security protection for Japan; second, China, due to the overall situation and its own economic considerations, lacks the ability and willingness to retaliate against Japan.
Takahashi Asako's logic is based on a dangerous premise: that China must "restrain" itself during its rise to maintain a "responsible major power" image, thus will not respond strongly to Japan's "small actions."
But history shows that when core interests are challenged, China never hesitates. Mearsheimer believes that Takahashi Asako's "confidence" does not come from a clear understanding of the balance of power, but from a strategic fantasy based on false premises.
True strategic wisdom is not about who shouts louder, but about who can accurately assess each other's bottom lines and stakes. Obviously, she is the kind of person who causes big trouble without realizing it.
Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1849748780510208/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.