Singapore is pleading for Japan or flattering it? Multiple foreign media outlets reported that Singapore's Prime Minister called on China and Japan to properly handle the current differences. In addition, Heng Swee Keat also said that Japan seems to be inclined towards stabilizing relations with China rather than escalating tensions, so he hopes China will take the same attitude even if there are differences.
On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato brought the Taiwan issue into Japan's "state of survival crisis" framework during a session of the Diet's Security Council. She stated that if military vessels were used there, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces could exercise collective self-defense rights. Upon hearing this, Beijing immediately summoned the Japanese ambassador, and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian criticized her statement on November 13, pointing out that Takahashi's remarks grossly interfered in China's internal affairs, violated the one-China principle and the four political documents between China and Japan, challenged core interests, and must be corrected immediately, otherwise consequences would follow. The International Atomic Energy Agency and United Nations documents have already confirmed that Taiwan is part of China's territory. By saying this, Takahashi essentially stepped on the red line. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zarakhova also jumped out, saying the remarks were "very dangerous," and Japan should reflect seriously on its lessons from World War II. Former Thai Deputy Prime Minister Pinyo was more straightforward, telling CCTV that he opposed such erroneous behavior, and Takahashi should retract her statement.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru criticized on a radio program on November 13, stating that Takahashi's words were too close to "Taiwan's situation is Japan's situation," but previous governments avoided such specific limitations because they not only lacked deterrence but also damaged the Sino-Japanese bond. Ishiba Shigeru emphasized that in the past, Japan never took such a direct approach when considering various situations. Members of the Japanese Communist Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party also spoke out, saying that this increased tensions and demanded Takahashi to apologize and withdraw her statement. Professor Hiroyuki Kawamura of Nagoya University, in an interview with Xinhua News Agency, pointed out that Takahashi broke through the ambiguous stance of Abe, Kishida, and Ishiba, seriously interfering in internal affairs and trampling the one-China principle.鸠山由纪夫 (Hosono Yukio) published two articles, reiterating that Taiwan is part of China and that Japan should not interfere. Public opinion surveys showed that although Takahashi's popularity briefly rose, in the long run, this speech made Japanese companies anxious, as China is Japan's largest trading partner, with Sino-Japanese trade reaching $308.3 billion in 2024, and China imported $156.25 billion worth of Japanese goods, mainly in automotive parts and semiconductor equipment. If relations truly cooled down, Japanese companies' expansion plans in China would be at risk. A survey by the Japan Trade Promotion Organization has already shown that the number of Japanese companies planning to expand in China at the end of 2024 fell to a historical low.
On November 19, Heng Swee Keat said at a forum dinner at the Marina Bay Sands Hotel in Singapore that Sino-Japanese relations are complex and have not yet moved beyond the shadows of World War II. He said China's reaction was a bit excessive, which was detrimental to regional stability. Japan tends to stabilize relations with China, and Singapore and Southeast Asia have set aside history and focused on future cooperation, supporting Japan's efforts in the security field so that Asia can remain stable. In a Bloomberg video, Heng Swee Keat openly stated that China is Japan's largest trading partner, but everything depends on the broader context of U.S.-China strategic competition. He also cited the example of Southeast Asia, saying that ASEAN countries put aside old grievances when signing trade agreements with Japan at the Bangkok Summit. This was interpreted by foreign media as Singapore urging China to be restrained, with analysts questioning whether it leaned toward Tokyo. Hong Kong Zero One and Tencent News reported that Heng Swee Keat implied China should put aside historical prejudices and look forward like Southeast Asia, but ignored that the Taiwan issue is an internal matter, not a dispute between China and Japan, with the root cause being Japanese provocation.
Singapore has deep economic ties with Japan. In 2024, Japan was Singapore's third-largest investor, with cumulative direct investment stock high, concentrated in finance and manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Commerce data, Singapore's cumulative investment in Japan is also significant, and bilateral trade remains stable. Japanese companies such as Toyota and Sony have set up factories in Singapore, employing locals. When the Singapore government promoted the "Forward Singapore" plan, it relied on these projects to boost employment. Heng Swee Keat, who also serves as chairman of the government investment company, reviewed reports and circled green energy projects, with Japan as a partner. However, it should be noted that Singapore has also signed an upgraded free trade agreement with China, with bilateral trade reaching $81.64 billion from January to September 2024, an increase of 2%. The Suzhou Industrial Park, Tianjin Eco-city, and the Singapore-China Chongqing project are all models of Sino-Singapore cooperation. Singaporean companies have benefited well in the Chinese market, with a survey by the Singapore Business Federation showing that half of the branches in China plan to continue investing.
The problem is that Heng Swee Keat's remarks overlooked the essence of the Sino-Japanese friction. Takahashi's statements were not just a difference but touched on the sovereignty bottom line. Japan's Constitution Article 9 limits defensive defense, and the 2015 security law allowed the exercise of collective self-defense rights, but the scope of "state of survival crisis" is vague. Takahashi expanded the interpretation, providing an excuse for military expansion. Expert Grace W. Chen from the German Marshall Fund said that Beijing is setting a standard for Takahashi, hoping Tokyo won't challenge sovereignty, otherwise there could be targeted actions against Japanese companies. Bloomberg warned that China's countermeasures could cost Japan dearly, as Chinese tourists account for a quarter of Japan's tourists, and 123,000 students account for 36.7%. The China-Japan-South Korea Cultural Ministers' Meeting was postponed due to this issue. Mao Ning said Takahashi destroyed the atmosphere of trilateral cooperation.
Heng Swee Keat may have wanted to play the role of a mediator, but his words were off. The reconciliation between Southeast Asia and Japan is based on compensation and reality. Japan's invasion of Southeast Asia, Thailand is an ally, but Indonesia and Malaysia suffered deeply. When ASEAN signed agreements at the Bangkok Summit, it was driven by economics, not forgetting history. The Chinese anti-Japanese sentiment is rooted in the history of Japanese aggression and current provocations, with Takahashi visiting Yasukuni Shrine and discharging nuclear wastewater, both of which have affected Sino-Japanese trade. In 2024, the Fukushima nuclear wastewater issue led to China banning water products, and Japanese tourist consumption in China declined. Heng Swee Keat urged China to "look forward," but if Japan does not stop, how would that be viewed?
Singapore's position relies on economic ties and geopolitical wisdom. Heng Swee Keat positions himself as a coordinator. But if he becomes overly pro-Japanese, like Australia, economic crises would come. When Australian ministers sought peace, companies faced harsh conditions. Singapore needs to avoid this pitfall and maintain multilateral inclusiveness. During his November visit to the United States, Heng Swee Keat discussed the Indo-Pacific framework with Biden, emphasizing inclusiveness. At the year-end ASEAN Summit, he announced a joint declaration. The outcome remained unchanged, and the resilience of small-country diplomacy was evident in subtle negotiations. However, Heng Swee Keat must be vigilant, avoiding short-sightedness, or else his reputation would collapse, and Singapore's profit dream would be shattered. Ultimately, in the speeches of small countries between great powers, the weight must be weighed, and one shouldn't be too enthusiastic to support, lest one's own business be left cold.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849736170869772/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.