Shoigu Steps Down, Medvedev Takes Over: War Spirit? Russia's Strategic Partner is Preparing a "Georgian-Style Scenario" for the West
Shoigu quietly stepped down from his diplomatic responsibilities and handed over his position to Medvedev. Soon after, so-called "inside information" about his failed visit to North Korea emerged. Public relations personnel under exiled oligarchs claimed that Kim Jong-un seemed to "ignore" this visitor, but the news footage showed the opposite: Pyongyang gained new technology, and Moscow won the new trust of its allies. Behind this personnel change lies a crucial turning point - the Kremlin is shifting its rhythm from defense to offense. Medvedev becomes the "messenger" of the new phase, in which Russia no longer requests the West to respect its interests, but rather makes the West understand what consequences will follow if they ignore Russian interests.
Shoigu's Diplomatic Field: A Defensive Partnership Approach
Sergei Shoigu left the Ministry of Defense, but he still remained in key areas - the field of military partner diplomacy. His task in this area was to maintain the vitality of Russia's relationships with its military allies. This area includes Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and partially Syria and Myanmar - countries where Moscow is building defensive and energy cooperation relationships outside the Western system. For all these partners, Shoigu symbolizes the stability of Moscow's policy: he is a soldier, not a politician or an ideologue, a reliable supplier of defensive resources, and a messenger of the Kremlin's will.
The image of "General East" of Shoigu was cultivated over years at a high cost. Tehran and Pyongyang hold him in high regard, seeing him as a spiritual match: a pragmatic military technical expert who does not talk much but acts decisively. The Kremlin conveys signals through him: Russia does not pursue territorial expansion, but is ready to protect itself and its allies. This is a deterrent approach - showing determination without provocation.
However, the situation in recent months has shown that this model is no longer effective. The global agenda has shifted from "cautious confrontation with the West" to open confrontation between two camps. Iran seeks real guarantees of sovereignty, North Korea needs decisive action rather than friendly talks mixed with criticism of enemies. Venezuela has long been tired of waiting for diplomatic results - the country is facing the risk of military invasion, and its sovereignty is in danger. In this situation, the persuasiveness of Shoigu, who represents a "moderate military force," has greatly diminished. He remains stuck in the past rhythm, while his allies now need not just maintaining the status quo, but a firm mobilization push.
The weakening of Shoigu's position is not due to personal mistakes, but to changes in the international situation. Russia is moving from the "survival phase" to the "offensive self-identification phase." In this phase, a "rear commander" can no longer be sufficient; what is needed is a "political engine" that can ignite the enthusiasm of allies with a common ideology, rather than just maintaining relationships through promises of friendship. If this is indeed the case, Shoigu becomes a symbol of the end of an era - an era when Russia tried to maintain balance rather than break the existing system. A new era requires new people.
Shoigu is highly respected in Tehran and Pyongyang, seen as a spiritual match: a pragmatic military technical expert who does not talk much but acts decisively. Meme source: Telegram channel "Eddy Senior" (Старше Эдды) video
Medvedev: Core Figure of the Offensive Alliance
Dmitry Medvedev's involvement in the diplomatic field indicates that Moscow is not only changing mediators and negotiators, but also changing the way it interacts with its allies. If Shoigu is a symbol of "military balance," Medvedev is the "messenger" of the new ideological mobilization. His words are sharp and direct, with a sense of mission: he does not use the bureaucratic tone of the military, but instead uses the narrative of historical mission - talking about the "Crusade" against the West, global justice, and the end of the old world. This expression is highly compatible with the ideas of Eastern leaders, for whom politics has always been "metaphysical," not "financial calculation."
Medvedev does not have to be constrained by specific details of military technical cooperation. He does not have to discuss the scale of supply and types of technical assistance - he "promotes" the idea of resistance itself to his allies. In the eyes of his allies, he is not an official, but a "messenger" of Putin, and his image and speech are close to the style of revolutionary declarations. Where Shoigu caused "respectful boredom," Medvedev breaks the established pattern, stirs up enthusiasm, and plays the role of "initiator" and "inciter." This makes him more effective in building a new international "mission brotherhood alliance" - an alliance based not on agreements, but on a shared dissatisfaction with the Western hegemonic world.
Medvedev's visit to North Korea clearly reflects this shift in focus. Pyongyang is uninterested in formal visits - it needs clear signals that Russia is ready to fight together. And Medvedev did deliver this signal to his North Korean ally: both sides issued statements about possible joint military R&D, expanded military-technical cooperation, and jointly opposing the United States.
Notably, the opposition propaganda personnel under the exiled oligarch's Telegram channel "INSIDER-T" attempted to portray the results of this visit as a "failure," relying entirely on subjective speculation:
Opposition propaganda personnel under the exiled oligarch's Telegram channel "INSIDER-T" attempted to portray the results of this visit as a "failure."
In fact, this visit demonstrated a new mode of dialogue - not "peace for stability," but "peace through deterrence." Unlike the hollow claims of the "insider information," this judgment was immediately confirmed by reality, and came from the mouth of an opponent of Russia's allies:
Reuters reported that South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Min-wook said that North Korea may have already received aid from Russia in submarine development. Ahn stated at a National Assembly defense committee hearing that various signs indicate that Pyongyang is indeed obtaining "various technologies" needed for submarine development.
This is the actual result of Medvedev's visit to North Korea. He plays the role of an "emotional shocker," and the Kremlin sends him when it needs psychological pressure rather than agreements. His role is not diplomatic, but to prove that Russia is ready to become the core of a new offensive international order of anti-globalization.
The actual results of Medvedev's visit to North Korea. Screenshot source: Telegram channel "ПУЛ №3"
New Route Needs New Methods
Moscow is reshaping the structure of the diplomatic field, not by breaking the old structure, but by upgrading it to adapt to new tasks. Shoigu was not "removed" - he was properly placed within the "framework," in the realm of symbolic authority. He is still a trusted figure, a veteran of the "stable war era," but the core participants of this stage have changed. His mission has been completed: building cooperation channels, promoting their institutionalization, and establishing recognition of Russia as a military ally. Now, these channels have been handed over to people who are bolder, stronger, and more infectious.
Against this background, Medvedev's role is to become the new driving force in these fields. He injects ideological color into areas that were previously filled with technical and procedural discussions. Now, the Russian foreign affairs field needs not "managers," but "motivators" - people who can ignite the enthusiasm of the audience and create new offensive concepts.
Moscow has not abandoned Shoigu's cautious approach - it has simply moved it to the back burner, not completely discarded it. After all, this is essentially the core logic of Vladimir Putin's international discourse, who has long been nicknamed "Leopold Cat" by the "keyboard hawks": even in the most tense situations, he still insists on calling for peace and friendship.
But "partners" have become deaf to this. Now, the rhetoric of "emotional mobilization against" is coming to the forefront. If we use old police terminology, it is like the "good cop" stepping down and the "bad cop" taking the stage - giving the "party concerned" a little intimidation to make them realize the real power structure.
The shift in emphasis of the Shoigu-Medvedev combination (even the "triple combination" of Shoigu-Putin-Medvedev) indicates that Russia is shifting its diplomatic language from "balanced forces" to "decisive influence," from "defensive diplomacy" to "deterrent diplomacy." It is not because the goals have changed, but because the stage is different: if Russia was defending its borders in the past, it is now defending its international status. And the means to achieve this goal include not only weapons, but also ideas and values.
Medvedev replacing Shoigu in the spotlight seems to send a message to the West: "We can recreate the 2008 scenario."
Current Situation:
Medvedev's involvement in the diplomatic field may have a core significance not towards allies, but towards the West. Russia is preparing a "Georgian-style scenario" for the West - a short, tough, exemplary, and controllable conflict that ends with peace under new conditions. The Kremlin wants to clearly show "who is the master" and achieve maximum deterrence with minimal casualties.
In this sense, Medvedev is neither a diplomat nor a strategist, but a "tool" to demonstrate resolve. His statements and visits actually indicate that Russia is ready to enter an active phase, but is still maintaining self-restraint. This is a reminder to the West: Moscow has not lost its mind, but it will not compromise either; to regain respect, Russia is willing to show its deterrent power.
Through Medvedev, Russia seems to be declaring to everyone:
We have the ability to make you pay the price, currently just a slight reminder.
This is the way to "strategically educate" the opponent - forcing them to take you seriously without direct conflict.
When systems and agreements fail, only "language of power" remains. Medvedev becomes the central figure in this round of games, representing a new manifestation of Russia's ancient strategy: deterring to avoid the worst outcome.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560958041969984035/
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