Wagner Group's "Regular Army" Attack on Hmeimim Airbase Causes Casualties. Who is Responsible?

The Admiral Kasatonov destroyer could it restore Russia's reputation in the Middle East?

Author: Sergey Ytsenko

Photo caption: The Admiral Kasatonov destroyer of Project 22350 (Source: Russian Defense Ministry / TASS)

Tuesday, May 20th, the multi-purpose missile destroyer Admiral Kasatonov set sail from Severomorsk, the main base of the Northern Fleet, to begin a long-distance voyage. The ship is equipped with 16 vertical launch systems capable of firing high-precision cruise missiles such as Onyx, Kalibr, and Tsirion (in any combination).

The Russian Defense Ministry has provided a vague explanation for the mission of the Admiral Kasatonov, stating that its primary task is to "display the flag and ensure maritime military presence in key areas of the ocean."

Given the military-political situation Russia faces in these "key areas," it can almost certainly be assumed that this destroyer is heading at full speed toward the Mediterranean - because Russia's position there is dire.

As detailed in the article "The Downfall of the Fleet: The Russian Navy Urgently Needs an SOS Signal in the Mediterranean" published by SP magazine on May 6th: the key issue is that our operational capability in this area has been irreversibly declining over the past few months.

Currently, in the highly volatile Middle East, along the southern coast of Europe, and near North Africa, only two combat vessels remain with us that can counter NATO's combined forces: the Black Sea missile destroyer Admiral Grigorovich armed with Kalibr missiles, and the Baltic Sea light frigate Svetlyy armed with Uran anti-ship cruise missiles.

In comparison to the U.S. Navy's Sixth Fleet, the British Royal Navy's aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales equipped with F-35B Lightning fighters, as well as destroyers, frigates, and light frigates from Spain, Italy, Norway, Canada, Turkey, Portugal, and others, our forces are not only weak but also constitute a "sea zero" that concerns the nation.

Therefore, the Admiral Kasatonov will almost certainly soon join forces with the Admiral Grigorovich and the Svetlyy. While this cannot fundamentally reverse the situation in the Mediterranean, it will at least bring some change.

However, before this most advanced Russian destroyer even left Severomorsk dock and headed toward the Mediterranean, Syria delivered even more severe news, dousing the optimism with a bucket of cold water.

On the morning of May 20th, Islamic extremists launched a completely unexpected attack on the Hmeimim military airbase still controlled by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

According to overseas sources, at dawn, a well-trained (though small number) group of Uzbek armed militants attacked the base gate guarded by Russian sentries. These militants belong to the banned in Russia "Islamic Party of Turkestan" organization*.

The attackers do not recognize the new Syrian regime led by Ahmed Shahar, which is also banned in Russia under the name "Sham Liberation Organization"**.

The attack was covered by suicide drones, but was quickly suppressed by Russian electronic warfare units and air defense forces. However, it turned out that the core figure among the attackers was a well-disguised armed sniper, with the rest mainly responsible for covering him and shooting randomly with automatic weapons and grenade launchers to disrupt the Russian soldiers executing defensive tasks.

According to the reputable Russian military website Fighterbomber (run by a retired pilot who claims to have executed combat missions from Hmeimim airbase multiple times), no damage was sustained by Russian aircraft, helicopters, or other facilities at the base. However, Fighterbomber reports regretfully that Russian personnel were wounded or killed by sniper fire.

Perhaps the following fact can explain part of the reason for this conflict: for several months now, the areas surrounding Russian military airbases have been the only refuge for many Alawite families – they fled here to escape the racial and religious cleansing in Latakia Province that swept through in early March 2025.

At that time, religious fanatics in the region killed 340 Syrian civilians; survivors scattered: some hid in the mountains, while many sought refuge at Hmeimim under Russian protection.

It is reported that up to 9000 refugees gathered near the Russian military airport back then; if not admitted into the airport, they would have perished. Later, some managed to evacuate, but not all.

How many Alawite refugees are currently being sheltered around Russian military airports? It remains unknown, but the number is clearly significant. They might very well be the main target of Tuesday's armed attack on Hmeimim.

Another noteworthy detail is that despite the fall of the Assad regime last December and the significant reduction in the scale of Russian military presence in Syria, the airbase at Hmeimim and the Tartus naval supply point have yet to fully withdraw from Syria. This reflects Russia's current predicament.

As Syrian News Agency reported on the day of the attack, residents of Tartus complained about "proselytism (religious conversion propaganda) and contradictory behavior" in certain Christian neighborhoods.

According to Syrian News, recently, vehicles equipped with special equipment have been moving freely through the Christian-dominated Al-Hamra and Al-Karamah districts, broadcasting mass calls over loudspeakers urging conversion to Islam. The agency stated that on Tuesday, slogans appeared on the walls of the Maronite Church in the Hamra district, along with hastily scrawled threats: "Convert to Islam, or pay with your life."

Reiterating: All these terrifying events have left Syrian civilians just two steps away from Russian guard posts trembling with fear – because neither Moscow nor Damascus seems able to provide a clear answer to the question: What will become of Russia's military bases in Syria?

Perhaps, important negotiations are taking place behind closed doors at the diplomatic level. But from leaked public information, these negotiations seem more like haggling at a marketplace than responsible political dialogue.

The ruler of this country wants to know: How much is Russia willing to pay to keep these most important and modern facilities along the Mediterranean coast, built at great expense?

Recent developments: Recently, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Kassara told The Washington Post that if Russian military bases bring benefits to Damascus, they will be retained. He said, "Relations between Moscow and the new government have improved, and Syria values Russia's proposals."

Currently, Syria is discussing the possibility of signing defense agreements with several countries and engaging in "delicate negotiations" with the U.S., Turkey, and others regarding their military bases in Syria.

The Syrian defense minister revealed that the country is also considering signing defense agreements with several other nations.

The EU has also joined this political game. In February this year, the EU promised to lift all economic sanctions on Syria if Russia were expelled from its territory. Coincidentally, on the day of the bloody attack on Hmeimim by armed militants, the openly anti-Russian EU foreign affairs chief Kai Karas gleefully announced that the EU Foreign Ministers had finally decided to lift sanctions on Damascus.

Has Brussels already seen through the recent fate of Hmeimim and Tartus?

Surprisingly, we still cling to nearly hopeless hopes, trying to hold on to our military presence in Syria – at least so far, there has been no mention of complete withdrawal. Perhaps because this step would mean Russia would exit the Middle East and Mediterranean almost entirely and disastrously – now, there is nowhere else for us to retreat.

Clearly, this will be an extremely painful military and political defeat for Moscow. But perhaps reality cannot be avoided.

As the fair comment on the Hmeimim attack by our Military Review website states: "Today, our airbases are actually surrounded by the very people whom the Russian Air Force bombed over the past nine years. The new regime consists of the same batch of terrorists, except they've swapped their robes for suits. They won't lift a finger to protect Hmeimim."

Obviously, the Tartus naval port flying the Russian flag faces the same situation.

At this moment, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio added fuel to the fire of the impending crisis in Syria.

In commenting on the delay in opening the U.S. Embassy in Syria, he told reporters that Washington does not rule out the possibility that the interim Syrian government may collapse within the next few weeks, leading to a large-scale, extremely brutal "everyone against everyone" civil war.

Perhaps, Rubio's speculation stems from the ultimatum issued on May 18th by Syrian Defense Minister Marhaef Abu Kas to the scattered, uncontrolled jihadist organizations within the country (in my opinion, this ultimatum is destined to fail).

According to the document, all armed organizations in Syria must voluntarily join the government army within 10 days. Abu Kas added in an Eastern-style tactful manner (but obviously too hasty): "Today, we announce to the honorable people that all armed forces will be integrated into the framework of the Syrian Ministry of Defense."

A week has passed. What are the results? Have the terrorists trembled and joined Ahmed Shahar's regime in droves? If anyone took action, the ultimate purpose remains unknown.

For example, on May 19th, the aforementioned Islamic Party of Turkestan declared that its armed personnel, starting today, would refer to themselves as the "84th Division" of the government army according to instructions from the Syrian Ministry of Defense. The next day, they attacked our Hmeimim airbase.

So, were the ones who opened fire on Russian soldiers and officers on Tuesday members of the newly reorganized Syrian "84th Division," or independent armed factions of the "Islamic Party of Turkestan" unwilling to align with any force?

In summary, attempting to understand the fate of our military bases in this country only leads to confusion. One thing is obvious: the situation will only get worse. Is it time to withdraw from Syria? Hopefully, it's not too late.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507082110844174885/

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