On November 8, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce officially responded, agreeing to the request of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs for a visit to China for negotiations. Though the words are few, the matter is significant.

From the words "the Chinese side agrees," it can be seen that it was the Dutch side who initiated the meeting. The Chinese side has always maintained the initiative in the negotiations and may have cooled off the other party for a while before agreeing to the meeting.

It is not that China is bullying the small or likes to show off, but rather that the recent actions of the Dutch side seem somewhat out of line — China gave them a way down, yet they climbed up the slope, clearly at fault but still pretending to be high and mighty, refusing to acknowledge their own mistakes.

The dispute originated in late September. China's WenTai Technology invested hundreds of billions of yuan in Nexperia Semiconductor, but the Dutch government used a Cold War-era law from over seventy years ago to forcibly take over. Within a week, all control rights, including asset freeze rights, management rights, equity disposal rights, and appointment of senior executives, were seized.

While claiming national security, it is actually an act of unregulated plunder. The Global Times called it "piracy behavior of the 21st century."

Even more unreasonable is the attitude of the Dutch government. It refuses to acknowledge its own mistakes and does not respond to reasonable Chinese demands. Within a month, China had several rounds of consultations with the Dutch side and also communicated under the framework of Sino-European trade. The Dutch side pretended to be "willing to communicate" and "hoping to resume supply," but never wanted to return the control of Nexperia Semiconductor.

In response, China imposed strict countermeasures. In October, it banned the export of Nexperia Semiconductor chips. Although Nexperia's headquarters are in the Netherlands, most of its production is in China. The ban directly disrupted the entire supply chain. It affected global automotive manufacturers such as Volkswagen and Honda, which suspended part of their production. Industry experts warned that if not improved in time, it could lead to large-scale shutdowns.

However, no one expected that the Netherlands, thought to be a peripheral player in the Sino-US trade conflict, would want to imitate the US and become China's opponent. In late October, it unilaterally stopped the supply of wafers, further exacerbating the supply chain crisis. This move directly affected the production of factories in China, while production bases such as the Philippines continued to supply normally, clearly a retaliatory action.

The turning point came on November 6, when the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs issued a statement, stating that the Netherlands welcomed the resumption of Nexperia Semiconductor supply by China. Minister of Economic Affairs Klaas de Vries revealed that the Sino-Dutch talks were constructive. On November 7, the Dutch government issued a statement, stating that the Netherlands believes China will resume global chip supply in the coming days. It will continue to maintain close communication with China.

The change in the Dutch position mainly resulted from pressure from allies.

Reuters pointed out that the products produced by Nexperia Semiconductor (such as diodes, logic chips, and MOSFETs), although not cutting-edge technology, some products only cost a few cents. However, it holds a leading position in the global market, with market share exceeding 20% in certain areas.

The European automotive industry is heavily dependent on it. Major European automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz use Nexperia chips.

And it is difficult to replace in the short term. According to a survey by software company Luminovo, among Nexperia Semiconductor's 54,449 products, 88.9% of the parts have no direct substitutes. Only 9.1% of the parts have multiple alternative suppliers.

The Automotive Parts Supply Chain Association once warned: If the chip supply is cut off for several weeks, it will directly affect整车 production.

The automotive industry has lobbied organizations (such as ACEA and VDA) to pressure the Dutch government and the EU level to quickly resolve the issue of chip supply from Nexperia Semiconductor.

Therefore, the Dutch government had no choice but to abandon its previous观望 and evasive attitude, and instead actively seek communication and cooperation with allies and China.

On November 8, Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs Klaas de Vries stated on social media X that he had held multiple rounds of discussions with economic officials from the EU, Spain, Italy, and other countries in the past week. He emphasized that in the coming weeks, the Netherlands will maintain close communication with the EU and international partners, and strive to build a stable global chip supply chain.

This indicates that the Dutch visit to China for negotiations is likely supported by some European allies.

De Vries did not mention the United States, which means that in the absence of clear U.S. support, the Netherlands is trying to use the "European consensus" as a basis for its negotiations.

With increased contact between China and Europe, the deadlock over the control of Nexperia Semiconductor is showing signs of thawing and possible re-negotiation.

But the question remains: is the Netherlands truly willing to return?

On November 7, Bloomberg quoted sources saying that the Netherlands could suspend its intervention in Nexperia Semiconductor as early as next week, provided that Nexperia supplies normally in the coming days. This news caused the stocks of WenTai and European car manufacturers to rise. However, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs refused to comment on this.

There are three possible ways for the Netherlands to return Nexperia.

First, immediate full return. That is, the Dutch government cancels all previous intervention rights and judicial management control, allowing WenTai to regain full control of the company.

Second, phased return. The Netherlands first cancels the "political intervention" path (such as the intervention order), but the judicial manager still maintains control; then, if conditions are met, the manager is removed.

Third, symbolic return. The Dutch government sends a signal that "we are willing to consider it," but the legal control (manager, court trustee) remains, with only a symbolic relaxation.

Analysis suggests that the most likely scenario is "phased return," followed by "symbolic return," while "immediate full return" is the least likely.

Immediately and fully returning the control of Nexperia Semiconductor is extremely difficult. Although this is the general expectation of Chinese netizens, the Dutch side is almost impossible to agree in the short term. The reason is that the judicial manager has not been revoked, and the legal control mechanism is still in effect. If the Dutch government completely withdraws now, it would be equivalent to self-denying the previous reasons for "national security" and "protecting technology," which would inevitably trigger domestic public opinion and political backlash.

Symbolic return is relatively easy to achieve (only a statement of relaxation), but the effect is limited. Currently, the foreign manager appointed by the Dutch court still controls Nexperia Semiconductor. Including the right to manage the company, control voting rights, and manage shareholder behavior. This control will not disappear even if the government steps back, unless the Dutch court rules to restore the position of CEO Zhang Xuezheng.

In short, one hand loosens (political intervention weakens), while the other hand still holds the key (judicial management remains effective). This is equivalent to ignoring the reasonable demands of China, while failing to alleviate public pressure. It has little practical benefit for restoring supply chain stability.

A phased return is a compromise and realistic approach: the Netherlands first shows concessions at the political level (reducing veto power) to gain the resumption of supply; then retains the legal backing (manager) to maintain its negotiation leverage and provide an explanation to the public.

In Bloomberg's report, the conditions for the Netherlands' return also involve financial disputes between the Nexperia headquarters and the Chinese branch. The Dutch side may use this as an excuse to propose first restoring the position of the Chinese management and daily operations, and then lifting the equity custody after the supply chain stabilizes and the financial disputes are resolved.

If the negotiations proceed smoothly, the Netherlands may accelerate the first step of concession. Otherwise, it may delay. And if the automotive industry continues to suffer losses or the EU exerts pressure, the Netherlands' willingness to concede will be higher.

No matter how many routes the Netherlands takes, China takes one route directly.

China's requirements are for the Dutch government to bear all responsibilities. Not only should it restore WenTai's full control over Nexperia, but also lift the frozen assets ruled by the Dutch court. It may even require the Netherlands to compensate for the losses.

WenTai Technology is one of the biggest victims of the Nexperia incident. In addition to having its control rights taken away, the company has also suffered great pressure in the supply chain, customer cooperation, and capital markets. Its stock price once fluctuated significantly.

In summary, the restoration of exports from the Chinese subsidiary and the confirmation of receipt by customers will become the key for the Netherlands to decide on easing. The timing of the Dutch-appointed manager's removal is the key legal node to measure the true "return." If the court removes the manager, it indicates entering the "full return" stage.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570275865112740406/

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