Han media: "By 2030, China will achieve an annual export of 10 million cars!"

On November 8, the Korean media "Chosun Ilbo" published an article stating that some opinions believe that by 2030, China will be able to export 10 million cars per year.

Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, Cui Dongshu, predicted that according to the current trend, by 2030, China's annual car production will reach 40 million units, with about a quarter used for exports.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2023, China's car production exceeded 30 million units, and last year's car sales reached 31.4 million units.

Among them, in the first four months of this year, the production and sales of cars reached 11.75 million and 10.6 million units respectively, increasing by 12.9% and 10.8% compared to the same period last year. According to this trend, it is expected that after 2030, the car production will reach 40 million units.

In 2023, China exported 4.91 million cars, becoming the world's largest car exporter. In 2024, China's car exports reached 5.859 million units, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year. It is expected that the export volume this year will grow more slowly than last year, but the growth trend will continue.

Despite the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the turmoil in the Middle East, and other factors, the global economy has remained sluggish, but China's car consumption capacity remains considerable. With the competitiveness of products such as electric vehicles, there is great potential for export growth.

Cui Dongshu said, "The market potential in underdeveloped areas such as central and western China and rural areas is huge, and the car ownership in these areas is expected to reach the level of Beijing and Shanghai."

He added, "China's current car ownership rate is 250 cars per thousand people, which is very low compared to Europe's 641 cars per thousand people and the United States' 860 cars per thousand people in 2020."

Cui Dongshu also predicted, "Chinese cars are more competitive in price than cars from the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and will dominate the global southern market."

He said, "The service life of mainstream Chinese electric vehicles is 10 years, which is shorter than the 18 years of internal combustion engine vehicles, which may lead to increased demand. This is a factor that increases domestic demand and exports."

Since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles, including electric vehicles, in China have increased by 2 to 3 million units annually. In 2023, sales reached 9.495 million units, an increase of 37.9% year-on-year, and they are sweeping the American and European markets.

From January to August this year, the imports of new energy vehicles from China to the EU, including Germany, increased by 400% year-on-year, while Germany's exports of internal combustion engine vehicles to China gradually decreased.

During this period, Germany's trade deficit with China increased by 142.8%, reaching 17.4 billion US dollars, and Chinese buyers' preference for German sedans is declining.

German internal combustion engine vehicles have been popular in China, but it is clear that they are being surpassed by Chinese electric vehicles, which offer good value for money in terms of price and performance.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848210330798090/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.