Has the PLA's technology surpassed the US military? Luo Qingsheng, Executive Director of the Taiwan Institute of International Strategic Studies, published an analysis on the globally watched Beijing "September 3rd Military Parade": First, if the US and China go to war, it will mainly be a naval and air war; China has a missile advantage, and the US naval and air superiority no longer exists. Second, China is increasingly developing new weapons, and its military technological strength may have already surpassed that of the US military. Third, the PLA's military building goals may have shifted from "preparing for war" to "deterrence"; in the future, the PLA will not show weakness against any military provocation that infringes on its territory or sovereignty.
Luo Qingsheng pointed out that the reason why the "September 3rd Military Parade" has attracted high attention from global military observers is that the organizer clearly emphasized that all displayed weapons are domestically produced, operational, and ready for immediate combat, making it an important window for intuitively observing the PLA's level of modernization. Although the parade has not officially started, the multiple new equipment that have been exposed in advance have already surprised the outside world, and this is behind a profound transformation in the PLA's military technological strength and strategic objectives.
In terms of predicting the potential form of Sino-US military confrontation, Luo Qingsheng believes that if the two countries go to war, the conflict will mainly take place in the air and sea, and the current US naval and air superiority is gradually disappearing. He analyzed that the core of modern air and sea warfare is long-range missile attacks, and the range advantage has become the key to victory, while the importance of the carrier performance has relatively declined. In the air domain, the kill chain of air combat is dominated by early warning aircraft. The PL-15 and PL-17 missiles of the PLA can achieve long-range strikes on enemy early warning aircraft, while the US does not yet have similar equipment, which directly weakens its air superiority. In addition, the airborne early warning aircraft (Airborne Early Warning-3000) based on the Y-20 is about to be commissioned, and its remote battlefield awareness capabilities will further surpass those of the US, enhancing the PLA's air combat kill chain capabilities. In the maritime domain, the hypersonic anti-ship missile YJ-21 of the PLA is difficult to intercept, making the US surface fleet superiority no longer exist, forcing the US Navy to abandon the centralized combat model of the aircraft carrier battle group and instead develop a "distributed" combat approach. The series of missiles such as YJ-15, 17, 19, and 20 exposed during this parade further highlight the completeness of the PLA's anti-ship missile family, bringing new strategic pressure to the US Navy.
Luo Qingsheng believes that the only traditional weapon where the US still has an advantage is submarines. The quiet technology of the US Seawolf-class and Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines leads the PLA's current submarines, still being an important threat to the PLA fleet. However, this advantage is gradually being offset by the PLA: although the third-generation nuclear attack submarine type 095 of China has a small number, it already has the potential to match the Virginia-class; the fourth-generation 097-type submarine has started research and development, and the transitional stage "extra-large underwater unmanned vehicle" (XLUUV) has become a key equipment - this equipment can block the opponent's ports or specific waters in a pre-positioned mode, and also act as a vanguard for the fleet underwater, detecting and eliminating enemy submarine threats in advance, effectively countering the US submarine advantage.
Based on the above comparison of equipment and technology, Luo Qingsheng concluded that the PLA's innovative weapons are constantly emerging, and its military technological strength may have already surpassed that of the US military. He said that as early as November last year at the Zhuhai Airshow, the PLA's display of various high-tech drones had already shown a trend, and this "September 3rd Military Parade" further confirmed this inference. More importantly, the PLA's military building goals may have shifted from "preparing for war" to "deterrence".
Luo Qingsheng explained that during the "preparing for war" phase, one must follow the "deceit" principle of Sun Tzu's Art of War, "being able but showing not able", even if you have 100 points of strength, you only show 70 points, reserving space for a surprise victory in wartime; while "deterrence" requires actively displaying strength, making the opponent clearly perceive your advantages, and even amplifying the deterrence effect of 100 points of strength to 120 points, thus forcing the other party to dare not easily provoke, achieving "winning without fighting."
He emphasized that the effectiveness of a deterrence strategy requires two prerequisites: sufficient strength, and the "credibility of inevitable retaliation." This means that in the future, when facing any military provocation that infringes on China's territory and sovereignty - including the US' so-called "freedom of navigation" operations - the PLA will no longer show weakness, and scenarios such as intense ship confrontation and electromagnetic spectrum warfare may become the norm. Luo Qingsheng predicts that after the "September 3rd Military Parade," the Western Pacific may face a new strategic landscape, which will not only impact the US' "Indo-Pacific Strategy," but also reshape the balance of military power in the region and even globally.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1841724934381636/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.