【By Observer News, Xiong Chaoran】On July 14 local time, U.S. President Trump met with NATO Secretary General Rutte at the White House. During the meeting, Trump expressed "strong dissatisfaction" with Russian President Putin and warned that if a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was not reached within 50 days, the United States would impose "severe tariffs" on Russia — with tariff rates as high as 100%.

The UK's Independent newspaper reported on the same day that although Trump often used the "tariff stick" as a means to strike opponents and allies, due to the punitive sanctions imposed by the previous Biden administration since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, there is currently almost no trade relationship between Russia and the United States.

However, Trump mentioned the concept of "secondary sanctions" during this threat, aiming to penalize Russian oil buyers and impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from these countries. The report stated that this move could double the import costs from China, India, and Germany, as these three countries are major trading partners of the United States and continue to purchase Russian oil products.

Later statements from U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Whitaker, and a White House official confirmed the actual target and intention behind Trump's threat. These U.S. officials stated that Trump referred to "secondary sanctions" against countries purchasing Russian oil, not tariffs on Russian goods. Since U.S.-Russia trade is minimal, "secondary sanctions" may be the harshest sanction measures, and imposing tariffs on countries like China and India that purchase Russian oil would have a significant impact on the Russian economy.

On July 14 local time, U.S. President Trump held a meeting and gave a speech in the Oval Office of the White House with NATO Secretary General Rutte. Visual China

According to a report by CNN, Trump announced two measures on the same day aimed at pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including providing new weapons to Ukraine, and threatening economic sanctions against Russia if a peace agreement was not reached within 50 days.

"I am disappointed with President Putin because I thought we could have reached an agreement two months ago, but it seems we haven't. Therefore, based on this, we will implement 'secondary tariffs.' If we cannot reach an agreement within 50 days, it's simple, they will be subjected to 100% tariffs, that's it, I hope we don't have to do this," Trump said at the White House that day.

When asked about the proposal by the U.S. Senate to impose "secondary sanctions" of up to 500% on Russia, Trump said that Republicans were "very actively pushing" for this plan and modifying it to grant him more power to cancel or delay the sanctions, but he also hinted that these sanctions might not be necessary.

The Independent reported that U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg later clarified to reporters that Trump referred to "secondary sanctions" against countries purchasing Russian oil, not tariffs on Russian goods.

"So this is economic sanctions... you can also impose economic penalties, once I find out you did this (violating), you will pay the price," he added, stating that Trump indeed has both sanctions and tariffs as "policy tools" when dealing with Russia.

CNN cited a clarification from a White House official, stating that Trump's mention of "secondary tariffs" refers to imposing 100% tariffs on Russia and "secondary sanctions" on countries purchasing Russian oil. The official stated that since U.S.-Russia trade is minimal, "secondary sanctions" may be the harshest form of sanctions.

"This is 'secondary sanctions,' which are sanctions imposed on countries that purchase oil from Russia, so this is actually not sanctioning Russia," U.S. Ambassador to NATO Whitaker told CNN at the White House: "This is imposing tariffs on countries such as India and China that purchase Russian oil, which will indeed have a significant impact on the Russian economy."

In fact, as early as late March, due to the failure to reach a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Trump had also expressed his dissatisfaction with Putin and threatened that the United States might impose "secondary tariffs" on Russian oil buyers.

At that time, Reuters cited an article by energy columnist Clyde Russell, who commented that Trump's threat to impose "secondary tariffs" on Russian oil buyers was quite "crazy and bold," but given the unpredictable nature of this president, the reactions of China, Russia, and India are worth watching. Especially for China and India, who are the two main buyers of Russian oil at present, their reactions and responses from Russia are equally important.

The author of the article believed that China is less likely to yield to U.S. pressure, but attention should still be paid to the high tariffs Trump has already imposed on China. India, on the other hand, faces a difficult situation; although the Modi government has been courting Trump, after the Ukraine conflict, it has purchased discounted Russian oil, making Russia the largest supplier of oil to India. Replacing Russian oil would mean finding alternative supplies, which is very difficult.

Russell pointed out that if Trump actually imposes "secondary tariffs" on Russian oil buyers, it would also change the structure of OPEC+. OPEC+ consists of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and ten non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by Russia.

For non-Russian members, a reduction in Russian oil supply globally could drive up oil prices, allowing them to increase production and revenue. In a way, this becomes a game of "self-interest" versus "group cohesion." Given that many OPEC+ member states are facing deteriorating fiscal conditions, the temptation of higher export revenues may be hard to resist.

Currently, all parties may respond cautiously, at least publicly. At the same time, they are trying to figure out whether Trump is serious or whether his new tariff threats are just a "fleeting idea," and whether this "idea bubble" will disappear with the next mood shift.

A Ural crude oil drilling platform in the Almetyevsk region of Russia. Photo

CNN believes that overall, these measures indicate that Trump is taking a different approach to the current Ukraine-Russia conflict. Since taking office in January this year, Trump has been trying to keep distance from the conflict. Even when announcing the imposition of sanctions on Russia in the White House's Oval Office that day, he still claimed that the long-standing Ukraine-Russia conflict was not caused by him.

According to reports, Trump also confirmed that the United States will provide more new weapons to Ukraine through NATO allies, and these allies will purchase the weapons and transport them to Kyiv, with coordination work handled by U.S. Ambassador to NATO Whitaker.

NATO Secretary General Rutte, who visited the White House that day, called this progress "significant" and praised Trump's decision. He also stated that Trump allowing European NATO allies to fund weapons for Ukraine was "completely logical" and said this decision was based on a consensus previously reached by the 32 NATO member states that each country's defense spending should reach 5% of its GDP.

During a regular press briefing on March 31, a foreign reporter asked the Chinese Foreign Ministry about the statement by U.S. President Trump that the United States might impose "secondary tariffs" on Russian oil buyers, and China is one of its main buyers. What is the Chinese Foreign Ministry's comment?

Regarding this, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia Kun stated at the time that China's position on the Ukraine crisis has always been consistent and clear, and we have always believed that dialogue and negotiations are the only feasible solution to the Ukraine crisis. The cooperation between China and Russia does not target any third party and is not affected by any third-party factors.

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