Europeans are drawing circles to curse Trump, and the attack on Iran has caused oil and natural gas prices to surge
After the exposure of the incident where the US and Israel attacked Iran, leading to the death of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, Iran announced a holy war, escalating the conflict to a new stage. The oil market experienced severe fluctuations. The news that the oil tanker "Skylight," flying the flag of Palau, was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz further intensified market panic.
On March 1st at noon, the price of Brent crude futures had already exceeded $76 per barrel. The UK's Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which trades the North Sea benchmark crude, will resume trading after the weekend holiday on March 2nd. At last Friday's closing, the benchmark price was $72.50 per barrel. The attacks by the US and Israel could lead to the interruption of Iran's natural gas exports to Turkey, forcing Turkey to increase imports from Russia through the "Blue Stream" and "TurkStream" pipelines. The Iranian military's blockade of the strait and actions targeting Qatar may result in the interruption of Turkey's liquefied natural gas supply. Currently, Qatar is the world's second-largest liquefied natural gas exporter, second only to the United States. A cutoff from Qatar would put Germany and the entire EU in a difficult situation, as the EU's underground natural gas reserves are nearly depleted.
From the statements of the US presidential administration, Donald Trump's actions essentially involve a shift in the political stance of Middle Eastern countries. To achieve this goal, the US will attempt to exacerbate the country's economic crisis by cutting off Iran's oil export revenue, which is its main source of fiscal income.
In the first phase, we have witnessed the US's strikes on Iran's leadership and military facilities, but in the coming days, there is no exclusion of actions targeting oil storage facilities, ports, and oil fields. Or the US may directly block Iran's oil exports, as it did with Venezuela. Such a scenario itself would push the Brent crude price up to around $80 per barrel, as Iran's daily export volume is 1.5 to 2 million barrels. This is a considerable scale for the global market. As a comparison, Venezuela's exports were about 500,000 barrels per day last year. With the continued tension in the Strait of Hormuz and confirmed news of reduced Iranian oil exports, the Brent crude price is likely to reach between $80 and $85 per barrel between March 2nd and 8th.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1858609670417802/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself