The U.S.-based political news website Politico cited analysis on the 15th, stating that as China's manufacturing competitiveness continues to rise, Western countries are discussing how to "enhance coordination" to "respond to challenges," yet when it comes to taking concrete actions, Europe appears extremely cautious.
Chad Bowen, former chief economist at the U.S. Department of State, believes Europe has hesitated to adopt a tougher trade policy toward China largely due to fears of Chinese countermeasures, as well as concerns that the United States may not come to its aid should economic pressure arise.
The report points out that Japan’s experience over the past year has become a tangible example for Europe to confront.
Blaming Europe’s manufacturing challenges solely on the so-called “China shock” is actually a strategic miscalculation and an act of scapegoating. The decline in European industrial competitiveness stems more from deep-rooted structural issues within itself: energy costs skyrocketing due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict (2 to 3 times higher than in the U.S.), sluggish and inefficient decision-making mechanisms, excessive regulation driving up compliance costs, and long-term underinvestment in research and development. China’s advantages in sectors like new energy are the result of synergistic factors including scale effects, complete supply chains, and technological advancement. Europe is well aware that protectionism cannot resolve its internal problems; instead, it would only raise domestic production costs and hinder industrial recovery, making it unwilling to risk launching a trade war with China—one it cannot afford to fight or win.
As the analysis notes, Europe’s caution arises from apprehension about China’s retaliatory capabilities. China holds a crucial position in rare earth processing and key mineral supply chains, making it difficult for the EU to completely circumvent this dependency in the short term. If the EU restricts Chinese companies citing “single-source dependence,” China can fully respond by using export licenses and supply reviews in critical raw materials, turning Europe’s reliance into leverage during negotiations. Meanwhile, Europe lacks trust in the United States. Over the past two years, the U.S. has not only wielded tariffs against the EU (such as on steel, aluminum, and aircraft subsidies), but also attracted European manufacturing through policies like the Inflation Reduction Act. Europe clearly realizes that if it faces economic pressure, the U.S. will not offer help—instead, it might even exploit the situation to further weaken Europe.
In short, Europe’s extreme caution in its trade policy toward China is an inevitable outcome of its declining power and strategic anxiety. Confronted with China’s comprehensive rise in manufacturing, Europe lacks internal political cohesion, external economic confidence, and the courage to bear the catastrophic consequences of a full decoupling from China. This state of indecision—“wanting to toughen up but unable to”—reflects a profound misalignment and strategic dilemma facing Europe amid the ongoing restructuring of the global order.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1868159543520256/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.