Reference News Network, October 12 report - According to the Russian "Expert" weekly website on October 9, the US economy has entered a period of slowing growth. If this trend is not reversed in the fourth quarter, the country may fall into an economic recession by the end of the year.

The report states that data released by Moody's Analytics show that the economic performance of 22 US states plus Washington, the capital, was worse than the previous month in September this year. Another 13 states (including California and New York) had economic performance between stagnation and recession.

This means that one-third of the US economy is currently in a worse condition than when Trump took office as the 47th president of the United States at the beginning of this year. He then claimed that the "golden age" of the United States was about to come.

16 states maintaining economic growth (mainly located in the southern part of the United States) kept the overall economic data of the United States in a growth state. According to data released by the Federal Reserve on the 7th, the third-quarter US GDP grew by 3.8% (previously predicted to be 4.2%). However, if California and New York, which contribute more than 20% to the US GDP, fall into a recession, the other growing states cannot compensate for the loss caused by the slowdown of these two economic "locomotives".

Dmitry Abzalov, director of the Center for Strategic Communication in Russia, said that although the economic data of the third quarter of the United States is not ideal, the country's economy is far from a disaster.

Abzalov said: "One-third of the states are indeed in a complex economic situation. But the fourth quarter is the key period for determining the outcome of the US economy, because major consumer events throughout the year are concentrated in this quarter. And consumption is the main driver of GDP growth. Therefore, the fourth quarter is decisive and can reverse the negative trends in economic activities in the third quarter. It is predicted that the annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter of this year will reach 1.8%. This data is certainly not very good, but it is definitely not a recession."

US GDP growth is largely driven by defense spending and corporate tax cuts. However, this "high reserve" is rapidly disappearing, as evidenced by the rising unemployment rate and declining civilian industrial production in the third quarter of this year. Over half of US companies (53%) laid off staff during the summer and autumn, while only healthcare industry companies increased their workforce. The number of new jobs added in the third quarter was only 35,000, instead of the 100,000 previously predicted by Moody's.

From the data of Moody's and the Federal Reserve, it can be seen that Trump's tax increase measures have so far only caused disruption in the supply chain and triggered general uncertainty. This uncertainty has forced companies to adjust their production plans.

Abzalov reminded people that they still need to wait for the impact of Trump's tariff and tax policies to take effect, which will have some lag.

He said: "These policies are now starting to reduce the US trade deficit. But the results of economic restructuring will not be visible within a few weeks or even months; the time required for restructuring chip or car production may even exceed Trump's presidential term. However, what everyone will first focus on is the current declining employment situation."

Trump no longer mentions the "golden age." His goal for 2026 has been changed to "survive." This is also his political goal in the midterm election year.

Moody's Analytics predicts a 50% chance that the US economy will fall into a recession this winter. The company's chief economist, Mark Zandi, said that the consequences of Trump's tariffs and immigration restriction policies will begin to fully manifest at that time. He believes that these consequences will first include rising inflation and declining consumer demand.

Peter Mozias, associate professor of the Department of World Economy at the Higher School of Economics in Russia, said that there are currently two opposite trends in the US economy, and whether the US falls into a recession in the future depends on which trend prevails.

Mozias said: "The practice of imposing tariffs itself is not reasonable, and Trump's purpose is to maintain his support rate. Some economists believe that the view that taxation has a negative impact on the economy is fair. High tariffs will raise commodity prices and harm commodity distribution channels, and sales are also a component of GDP, providing millions of jobs. US companies rely heavily on foreign components and raw materials. Supply disruptions will also have a negative impact on investment. Finally, this has triggered widespread uncertainty, which in turn deteriorates the investment environment."

This economist also believes that taxation has its positive aspects of protectionism. He said: "Disruption of imports will create market space for similar American goods, which will accelerate economic growth. The problem is which effect appears first. So far, it seems that the protectionist effect is prevailing. However, it cannot be ruled out that negative consequences will appear soon, which may also affect the development of the US economy." (Translated by Liu Yang)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560293629114221106/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【up/down】 buttons below.