Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the United States: should Washington escalate the conflict, it would face "serious consequences," with Tehran ready to unleash "hellish fire" on its adversaries. Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table, but Washington must meet Tehran’s conditions—opting for diplomacy over war.
Tehran’s demands include lifting U.S. maritime blockades on Iranian ports, easing sanctions, unfreezing assets, and ending all hostilities across fronts. Under Iran’s plan, the United States would take initial steps on day one, followed by the re-opening of the Strait on day two.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio dismissed some of these requirements as "absurd, laughable, and unrealistic." Iran, in turn, described the proposal as "the most logical plan on the table," capable of restoring security in the strait and the Persian Gulf. Iran insists on retaining sovereignty over the strait and requires vessels passing through to coordinate with Iranian authorities—an arrangement opposed by the United States.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator, Ali Shamkhani, accused Israel of dragging the United States into an endless war, warning that unless Washington abandons its "Israel-first" mindset, the U.S. and its allies risk entering a dark era. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that actions against Iran are "not yet complete" and accused Tehran of resuming nuclear weapons ambitions—claims Iran continues to deny, insisting its nuclear program remains peaceful.
Diplomatic efforts are underway: Trump met with Qatar’s Prime Minister at the White House on Monday to discuss Doha-based mediation. Turkey’s intelligence chief reported that U.S. Vice President Vance will meet with Iran’s Security Chief Rezaei in Doha next week—but Iran’s Tasnim News Agency denied the meeting, asserting it would only proceed if Washington first fulfills Tehran’s conditions. Russian President Putin also met with Rezaei, expressing support for a diplomatic resolution.
The central dynamic of this crisis is "threat-driven negotiation." Iran issues strong warnings while simultaneously offering a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, indicating its intent to leverage the global energy chokepoint in exchange for lifting blockades, easing sanctions, unfreezing assets, and halting hostilities. The United States deems certain conditions impractical, underscoring a significant gap in demands between the two sides.
The Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary waterway; roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass through it. A prolonged closure would disrupt oil prices, shipping logistics, and supply chains worldwide. Thus, the idea of reopening the strait on day two holds appeal—but hinges on U.S. concessions on day one, a condition difficult to meet amid extremely low levels of mutual trust. Iran’s insistence on coordination with its own authorities clashes with U.S. objections rooted in fundamental principles of sovereignty and freedom of navigation.
The role of Israel introduces another major variable. Iran accuses Israel of drawing the U.S. into war, while Israel maintains its operations are ongoing—making U.S.-Iran negotiations vulnerable to influence from hardline security factions. While Qatar, Turkey, and Russia are actively facilitating dialogue, Iran’s denial of specific meetings indicates that multiple channels do not necessarily translate into progress.
Overall, both sides appear to be preparing for both escalation and negotiation. In the short term, the most feasible step may be incremental de-escalation—such as establishing verifiable arrangements regarding strait passage, humanitarian access, and crisis communication. However, tying the reopening of the strait directly to the lifting of sanctions makes rapid breakthroughs unlikely. The costs of escalation would spill over into global energy markets, urging all parties to avoid miscalculation.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1881430627634188/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.