Japan has some beautiful dreams, but it's not enough.

China, on the other hand, has arrived at a structural window.

1. First, confirm the consensus: Japan's provocation is not childish

Give Japan a "passing grade" first, otherwise we may underestimate the variables.

Japan's core idea is:

  • American control over Japan is a slow suffocation
  • The long-term Sino-US rivalry requires forward bases
  • China has strategic patience and will not easily escalate
  • Therefore, Japan creates risks to make the US ease slightly

This logic is self-consistent from Japan's perspective, and it's not just a random idea.

The problem is not with logical errors, but rather that

It only holds in the "US-Japan-China" two-dimensional framework.

But the reality has entered three or even four dimensions.

2. What Japan truly underestimates is: China is no longer a 'reactive power'

This is a fatal misjudgment.

Japan's underlying thinking remains:

China = Passive responder

As long as I don't cross the line, you can only be restrained

But in the past two years, China's behavioral pattern has changed fundamentally.

Pay attention to several "fact actions", which are not verbal statements, but systemic-level behaviors:

China has significantly upgraded its "gray zone governance"

Including but not limited to:

  • Regular deployment of coast guard and law enforcement forces
  • Continuous enhancement of administrative presence
  • No longer relying on one-time confrontation, but on long-term pressure existence

What does this mean?

It means China no longer sees conflict as an event,

but as a governance issue.

Once entering the governance logic, the opponent's space for maneuver is infinitely compressed.

China has started to become de-emotional in strategy

This is what Japan finds most difficult to understand.

The current characteristics of China's behavior are:

  • Not competing for words
  • Not controlling the rhythm
  • Not fighting for victory or defeat
  • Only accumulating facts

This is completely mismatched with what Japan expects:

You provoke once, I react once

Then the US is forced to step in

China's current strategy is essentially:

Every time you move, I compress your space for ten future moves.

This is a structural punishment, not an emotional retaliation.

3. Japan ignores a bigger variable: time is now on China's side

Japan's entire gamble has an implicit premise:

Time is against me, so I must create a sudden change

But it ignored:

Time is a definite dividend for China.

Several hard facts:

  • China's industrial, shipbuilding, energy dispatch, and mobilization capabilities are continuously expanding
  • Neighboring countries' dependence on "stable suppliers" is increasing
  • The global attention of the US is being continuously diluted

What does this mean?

It means China doesn't need to solve Japan,

it just needs to keep raising Japan's cost of survival.

And Japan, as an island country, has a very low tolerance for costs.

4. The most dangerous misjudgment of Japan: taking China's restraint as not taking action

This is a mistake many small countries often make.

China's restraint comes from:

  • Determinacy of strategic goals
  • Systemic advantages
  • Full anticipation of the consequences of escalation

But this does not mean:

China will not kill you

On the contrary,

Once China judges that "killing you has a lower system cost," it will not hesitate.

And Japan's current actions are constantly testing that line.

This creates an extremely dangerous misalignment:

  • Japan is betting that China won't take deadly measures
  • China is calculating when taking deadly measures would be the most efficient

When these two curves intersect, it will be a disaster.

5. Why is it accurate to say "China has arrived at a big opportunity"?

Because Japan is doing something very counterproductive right now:

It is actively handing China the reason for "Asian security structure adjustment."

Previously, any Chinese forward action would be criticized as "changing the status quo."

Now?

  • The risk is created by Japan
  • The uncertainty is introduced by Japan
  • China's actions are instead presented as "stabilizing measures"

This is a huge benefit in terms of international narrative, neighboring countries' psychology, and institutional legitimacy.

In other words:

Japan tried to blow itself up to shake the US

But it accidentally helped China remove the label of "passive actor"

6. Rough speculation on future actions (only discussing direction, not tactics)

  1. China will not be led by Japan to escalate
  2. China will continue to make conflicts administrative / daily / de-militarized
  3. Japan will find out that the US hasn't let go, while China gradually establishes its presence
  4. Japan's room for maneuver is actually getting smaller
  5. Eventually, Japan will either retreat or misjudge escalation

And once escalation occurs, it will no longer be the "controllable risk" that Japan had envisioned.

7. Summary

Japan thinks it is creating variables,

but actually, it has just exposed its own cards early.

China didn't rush to play its hand,

because the table, chips, and time are already on China's side.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7587024386914402859/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.