Will Trump "Not Strike Iran with Nuclear Weapons"? Is His Promise Credible?
On August 31, Trump stated in an interview that he "ruled out the possibility of a nuclear strike on Iran," claiming that the U.S. had already "completely defeated" Iran through conventional means, making the use of nuclear weapons unnecessary.
This should be the first time since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict that Trump has responded directly to questions about whether he would consider a nuclear strike on Iran.
Yet, this statement is unlikely to fully dispel external concerns. The current U.S.-Iran war has lasted half a year, during which U.S. forces have nearly exhausted their conventional military options, yet Iran remains unyielding, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal.
In response, several high-ranking U.S. military officials have already warned Pentagon leadership that prolonging military operations against Iran is "unsustainable"—currently, only one-quarter of the U.S. Navy's destroyers are in deployable condition, and critical munitions such as Patriot interceptors and Tomahawk cruise missiles have been heavily depleted. Even Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A. Kelly privately cautioned the White House that it’s time to seek an "exit strategy" for this war.
However, given Trump’s notoriously aggressive style and his aversion to failure, the more conventional tactics prove ineffective and military leaders repeatedly call for a halt, the greater the likelihood becomes that he might resort to extreme measures to break the deadlock. Should nuclear weapons ever be used in actual combat, the consequences would far exceed the outcome of a regional conflict.
Since the end of World War II, nuclear weapons have never actually been used in warfare. Even after more than four years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has remained at the level of nuclear deterrence and has refrained from using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Therefore, if Trump were to use nuclear weapons against Iran under some momentary impulse, he would set an extremely dangerous and almost irreversible precedent.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875107526724619/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.