According to a report by the U.S. publication NSJ on October 9, the U.S. Navy's sixth-generation carrier-based fighter aircraft project, F/A-XX, has entered the final selection stage.

U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth has approved the decision for the project's winning bid.

This move marks the forced advancement of a long-stagnant and fluctuating fighter development project into a substantive phase, which is expected to enter full design, prototype testing, and system integration in the coming years.

The report points out that this aircraft has been given high expectations: it should comprehensively surpass the opponent in multiple aspects such as stealth, range, electronic warfare, aerial networking, and human-machine collaboration, while also possessing reliable takeoff and landing performance in the carrier environment, becoming the next core pillar of the U.S. aircraft carrier battle group's air power.

However, more noteworthy is that all of this is not a natural outcome, but rather a strategic hasty start driven by reality.

The sudden acceleration of F/A-XX is hard not to associate with China's intensive exposure of its sixth-generation aircraft projects; the U.S. started it quickly, which is an instinctive reaction.

Boeing's concept image

The birth of the F/A-XX project can be traced back to 2008, when the U.S. military realized that although the F/A-18E/F could be upgraded and extended, it would eventually be unable to meet the demands of future high-intensity offshore operations, so they began to consider its successor.

In 2012, the U.S. Navy officially issued a request for information to defense companies.

However, since then, the F/A-XX did not proceed as expected quickly, but instead experienced several near-fatal setbacks over the following more than a decade.

Initially, the U.S. Navy had a vague vision for the next generation of carrier-based fighter jets, requiring stealth, long-range capability, the ability to carry wingmen, self-updating, and compatibility with the size of the aircraft carrier deck... These sets of dream parameters made it difficult to concretize the plan.

Subsequently, there was a shift in resource allocation within the Pentagon, with the Air Force's NGAD project, the F-47, being prioritized, while the F/A-XX was downgraded to a secondary research and development object.

By 2023, the U.S. Congress cut the project's budget for two consecutive years, only retaining symbolic design fees; in 2024, there were even reports that the Pentagon planned to suspend the F/A-XX for three years and temporarily switch to purchasing more F-35Cs for emergency use.

By early 2025, Boeing and Northrop Grumman entered the final bidding stage, but due to budget disputes, they almost faced another failure, and the entire project was once listed on the Congressional budget wish list - meaning no funding, no progress.

It wasn't until recently that there was a reversal, and Hegseth quickly approved the project's selection.

This sudden major shift indicates that this is not a project naturally advanced after technical, financial, and rhythmic preparations are ready, but rather a plan that was originally unwilling to be touched, now forced to be launched.

F/A-18

Why is it said to be forced? The key lies in the rapid progress of China's sixth-generation aircraft project.

In the past year, at least three public or semi-public lines of China's sixth-generation aircraft R&D have entered the practical testing stage.

In comparison, the F/A-XX has not even finalized its selection, and the technical details are hardly leaked, not only having too long a period of silence, but also the technological credibility is difficult to maintain deterrence.

In such a situation, the U.S. suddenly accelerated the project, injected funds forcefully, and set time nodes, which is almost an instinctive reaction - it is not because it is ready, but because China has already taken off.

If China is still in the laboratory stage, the U.S. might still allow the F/A-XX to maintain a low level of operation, continue to rely on old equipment, and use F-35C to cope, which is enough to deal with other countries.

But the current situation is: the arms race of sixth-generation aircraft is no longer whether to launch, but who deploys the system first.

If the U.S. takes one step slower, it may not only fall behind in the number of platforms, but also completely lose the right to define air combat modes.

China's sixth-generation aircraft

It should be noted that projects that are hastily launched are likely to encounter problems, and the potential consequences of the F/A-XX could be very serious.

Firstly, the industry capacity is severely overloaded; Boeing just won the F-47 contract and is fully pushing forward, suddenly having to handle the F/A-XX, which may cause both to fail; Northrop, although experienced, is currently responsible for the mass production of the B-21 stealth bomber, and is also struggling.

Secondly, the risk of budget overrun is significant. Considering that the F-47 costs over $300 million each, and the F-35 development phase spent thousands of billions, now allocating a few billion dollars is just a starter in the sixth-generation aircraft system.

If the subsequent costs of the F/A-XX continue to spiral out of control, it will inevitably squeeze other key projects of the U.S. military, including long-range missiles, unmanned fleets, and carrier-based electronic warfare platforms, causing severe damage to the coordination of the entire naval system.

A bigger concern is the possible gap in combat effectiveness.

The F/A-18E/F is on the retirement path, and the number of F-35C is insufficient and limited in coverage. If the F/A-XX cannot be mass-produced before 2030, the U.S. Navy will face the awkward situation of having ships without aircraft.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559474211006235190/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [upvote/downvote] buttons below.