According to an article from Asia Times on October 9, the AUKUS alliance, initiated by Biden, is already cooling down despite the fact that no nuclear submarines have been delivered yet.

The article points out that although it was once packaged as a 21st-century platform for deterring China, the implementation of this agreement has been problematic from the start, and now it has exposed a structural fracture between the U.S. leadership capacity and its global commitments.

John Nolte, who was nominated by President Trump as the assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific affairs, recently stated in a hearing that the most critical part of the agreement — the plan to provide Australia with nuclear submarines — may need to be adjusted, citing that the U.S. own submarine production capacity is already stretched thin.

This reveals that AUKUS is merely a hastily assembled, symbolic, and anxiety-driven alliance.

Biden's AUKUS Alliance

As a trilateral agreement, AUKUS is limited to the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia — three maritime nations sharing the Anglo-Saxon cultural system.

This combination was known as a "civilization front" during the early Cold War, but in a multipolar era, it seems out of place.

America's choice to prioritize advanced technology and nuclear submarines for Australia, rather than covering more Asian-Pacific allies or multilateral mechanisms, essentially uses the two most familiar and controllable Anglo-Saxon relatives to maintain military influence.

The article argues that this is not expansion, but contraction, because it does not integrate regional forces, but instead creates a circle of trusted insiders.

In the strategic map, this is like America drawing a red line, outlining the areas where it is willing to invest resources, but this line is not meant as a warning, but to inform the outside world that my bottom line is only so far, and I will not and cannot unconditionally act as a world policeman in a broader region.

Now, Trump is trying to cut the roots again, saying that Australia, Britain, and others are irrelevant; I only care about the U.S. mainland.

It turns out that the AUKUS alliance was given too much strategic imagination by the Biden administration, attempting to use nuclear submarines and high-tech cooperation to pull Australia into the American global strike chain and indirectly build a containment circle around China.

But under the Trump administration, everything changed. Nolte mentioned in the hearing that the U.S. submarine industry is already unable to meet the timely replacement of the navy's fleet, let alone spare additional capacity to support Australia.

Furthermore, Deputy Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl launched a realistic review of AUKUS in July, aiming to bring it back from strategic fantasy to resource reality.

This reflects the Trump administration's consistent "America First" logic — if helping others affects oneself, then don't help, unless all the money is paid by others.

As a result, the original promise of nuclear submarines is now being turned into a weapons order, and Australia has become another weapons customer, instead of the imagined "Indo-Pacific deputy sheriff."

Trump

This once again proves a significant feature of Trump's foreign strategy: the U.S. no longer wants to be the world's policeman. The so-called security and protection are commodities. You pay the money, and I sell you weapons. Don't talk about anything else.

This means that the U.S. military presence globally no longer aims at maintaining alliances, but rather at doing business.

All驻军 and commitments that cannot be profitable may be cut, and to keep the U.S. military, you must pay enough money.

AUKUS is obviously no exception. Now, the purpose of the U.S. review is to make Australia bear more financial and military expenses, while also delaying the delivery time of submarines and reducing the scope of cooperation.

However, this does not mean that Trump has abandoned anti-China efforts. What he aims to achieve is for these U.S. allies to take their own provisions to charge at China. These provisions must be bought from the U.S., but the U.S. will not provide protection.

In other words, previously, the U.S. led everyone to fight against China, even actively providing some resources to encourage countries around China to take action.

Now, they are still cannon fodder against China, but they cannot get any support or promises from the U.S. They can only independently fight against China on behalf of the U.S.

This is Trump's calculation. He clearly knows that the U.S. strength is not what it used to be, and confronting China would inevitably lead to heavy losses. Therefore, he wants these allies to confront China themselves, best of all, to drag China down, allowing the U.S. to rest and regroup behind the scenes.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559472873006465579/

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